Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand had famously held hands as they recalled the waste of lives at the Battle of Verdun.

"Europe cannot move ahead without the Franco-German engine," said former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing.

General de Gaulle had described Germany as the horse and France the jockey. President Nicolas Sarkozy described the two countries as "opposite twins".

Never have the leaders of France and Germany been so important to the future of Europe as now - with the eurozone crisis drifting dangerously.

Hours after being sworn in as French president, Francois Hollande will fly to Berlin for dinner with Chancellor Angela Merkel. She has said she will welcome him "with open arms".

But her embrace will hide some embarrassment. She had openly backed President Sarkozy during the French election and nearly campaigned for him.

In Berlin there is suspicion of Mr Hollande. They do not like the fact that during the campaign he raised the standard against austerity and championed growth. Many saw that as a bid to reclaim French leadership in Europe.

Politically they come from different sides of the tracks.

Chancellor Merkel, who grew up in former communist East Germany, is mindful of German history and the lessons from the Weimar Republic - that inflation left unchecked could destroy democracy.

She has praised the wisdom of the Swabian housewife, a model southern German citizen, famed for frugality and thrift. Her instinctive attitude to the Greeks and others was that they had to be taught a lesson, that they needed to live within their means.

Former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had pleaded with Angela Merkel for easier terms for the first bailout loan.

She had replied: "We want to make sure nobody else will want this." The bailout terms were intended as a harsh lesson to others.

Mr Hollande is a socialist who cut his political teeth during the presidency of Francois Mitterrand.

His keenest instinct is to preserve the French way of life, with its social welfare model. During his campaign he promised to raise the minimum wage, hire tens of thousands of new teachers and water down the retirement age.

Politically she regards him as a tax-and-spend socialist.

Their most critical division is over austerity. Francois Hollande does not believe the policy is working.

"Austerity can no longer be the only option," he said. During the campaign he pledged to renegotiate the so-called "stability pact" aimed at enforcing discipline in the eurozone.

For Chancellor Merkel this pact is the key to the future survival of the single currency. She has repeatedly stated it is "not open to new negotiations".

Mr Hollande shot back, saying "it is not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe".

The view in Berlin is that the new French president did not level with his audiences. Privately they made it clear that there could be no renegotiation. They believe that Mr Hollande understands that.

They have not, however, been encouraged by remarks from the Socialist Party spokesman Benoit Hamon, who told French television: "We did not vote for there to be a president of the European Union named Mrs Merkel, who decides on the fate of all the others."

Politically they understand it will be difficult for Mr Hollande to back away from his pledge to renegotiate the pact - at least until after the parliamentary elections in June.

Officials then expect some compromise.

Chancellor Merkel will accept a growth commitment to be attached to the stability pact. She will be prepared to see EU funds diverted to major infrastructure projects and to see the capital base of the European Investment Bank expanded.

What she will not compromise on is her opposition to growth being financed through borrowing.

Some of these discussions will be tense and difficult. Mrs Merkel, for instance, will oppose the European Central Bank being able to lend directly to governments.

One of the first questions that will be put to the new French leader is where he stands on Greece. Does he go along with the German government in insisting that Greece accept the terms of the bailout deal if it is to stay in the eurozone?

Or does he believe that there will have to be some easing of the terms through a renegotiation? That decision may have to be taken within weeks.

Mr Hollande also appears to want France and Germany to be less dominant.

"The Franco-German relationship has been exclusive," he said. "European institutions have been neglected and some countries, notably the more fragile ones, have had the unpleasant feeling of facing an executive board."

The Germans are anxious the new French president may compete for allies within the EU.

The key for Berlin is that Mr Hollande sticks to his promise to balance the budget by 2017 and to bring the French deficit down to 3% by next year.

Reality, officials in Berlin say, will give the French president very little room for manoeuvre.

Whatever their differences, the crisis in the eurozone will put them under huge pressure to compromise.

After all, Chancellor Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy did not like each other at first but ended up being called "Merkozy" - such was their closeness.

Voters have changed all calculations. The people have spoken and in increasing numbers are expressing impatience with austerity.

Francois Hollande's victory in France has sent tremors across Europe. He has challenged the German script for managing the crisis. Austerity first, in his view, is failing.

It is likely that his campaign message contributed to the success of anti-austerity parties in Greece. If voters in France were resisting further spending cuts why should voters in Greece not do the same?

Chancellor Angela Merkel looks increasingly isolated. Even voters in North-Rhine Westphalia, the most heavily-populated German state, rejected her party in favour of the Social Democrats (SPD), who promised to go easy on cutting debt.

Here's the bind: Europe chose to tackle its debt crisis not just by cutting deficits but by adopting a pact that limits spending in the future. The Germans see it as essential discipline for the survival of the single currency; others see it as a dangerous straitjacket.

What had not been envisaged was how swiftly economies would decline. By the end of 2012 the Greek economy will have shrunk by 20% in five years. Italy is mired in recession. Spain will see its economy decline by 1.8% this year and could well remain in recession next year. Almost certainly it won't reach its target for cutting its deficit.

France will struggle too.

The renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz called Europe's debt strategy "suicidal".

If austerity is leading Europe into deep recession - some are saying it is reminiscent of the 1930s - then what is to be done?

For borrowing more to stimulate the economies would only deepen the debt crisis.

Hence the search for a growth strategy - but structural reforms take time to deliver and Europe does not have time.

Which brings us back to Greece. Anti-austerity parties believe that Greece is slowly being strangled economically. They want the terms of their bailout deal renegotiated.

They also do not believe that the EU or Germany will allow them to exit the euro, with all its "incalculable consequences".

The official line in Brussels and Berlin is that there will be no renegotiation. But there are different messages out there. Some are saying that a Greek exit can be "managed" and that the risk of contagion has been reduced.

The game of bluff, however, is drawing to a close. The "show me" moment approaches.

Will the EU - under pressure from voters - bend and offer the Greeks an easier deal?

Or will Germany insist that promises made by governments must be kept?

Will Europe change course and accept that it is cutting spending too quickly and embark on a massive infrastructure-building programme?

For the truth is that Europe no longer has a convincing policy. Its current strategy is being openly challenged. The continent is drifting dangerously whilst there are daily protests.

There can rarely have been a more important meeting than that between the newly elected French President, Francois Hollande, and the German Chancellor tomorrow. Can they compromise or, at this critical juncture, will they form up on different sides?

European officials who only recently were revelling in their role as anti-debt enforcers are born again as growth enthusiasts.

On 23 May, Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council, will host an informal "growth" dinner. Earlier this year David Cameron fought to have some of his ideas for growth included in the conclusions at a summit.

But it has taken the success of Francois Hollande in France to bring urgency to the pursuit of growth.

Europe's leaders will address a conundrum that divides economists: can you have austerity and growth at the same time?

The IMF chief Christine Lagarde is among those who insist that growth versus austerity is a false choice. She believes both can be achieved but she has also warned of the risks in cutting spending too sharply.

This argument will surface next week when Francois Hollande has his first meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He will - in the most diplomatic way - tell her that the French people have given him a mandate to make growth his priority.

What she will not allow is for French voters, in effect, to open up for renegotiation her treasured pact enforcing discipline over budgets in the eurozone.

However, the Germans cannot allow a rift with France which would be very damaging. So the expectation is for some kind of growth pact to be attached to the fiscal pact.

This is where it gets interesting. Mrs Merkel believes that growth best comes from structural reforms - making it easier to hire and fire workers and opening up professions.

That is not Francois Hollande's idea for growth. For a start, such reforms would pitch him into a fight with the French unions. He wants to see spending - particularly at the European level - on big-ticket projects like infrastructure and energy technology.

The EU Commission wants to bolster the European Investment Bank's paid-in capital by 10bn euros so it can increase its lending capacity for projects like motorway building.

Some of these ideas may get German backing.

What the German chancellor won't agree to is for countries to increase spending through borrowing. She will also resist any pressure to allow the European Central Bank to lend directly to governments.

The official EU position was set out by President Barroso. "There must be no let-up in our focus on stability," he said, whilst accelerating structural reforms.

The problem can be seen in a country like Spain. It has embarked on structural reforms but they take time. And in the short term, regional governments, companies and households are paying down debts.

The reforms may well boost growth in the future but, in the present, countries like Spain appear to be locked in a cycle of decline. Which is why much of the debate will focus on whether some of the deficit-cutting targets may be eased.

But the Germans will be wary in sending that signal to France. Peter Altmaier, who is close to Angela Merkel, described France's finances as "precarious" and then went on to say that "any country that attempts higher deficits... there simply isn't any wiggle room".

For the moment, the Germans favour austerity and reforms that might deliver growth down the road. That, of course, may not satisfy the voters. And therein lies a problem with monetary union.

As the German paper, Die Welt, wrote recently over the French and Greek elections: "In the end the results are proof that Europe doesn't work. Countries still debate within their own national borders because there is no European public space."

Voters may not give Europe's leaders time to work out how exactly you get growth while cutting deficits and reducing debt.

In one of his victory speeches, he pledged to "finish with austerity". Today Germany was ruling out any significant shift in its approach.

There would be no renegotiation of the treaty enforcing budgetary discipline as Francois Hollande had called for.

The Germans do appear ready to attach a growth pact to the treaty but they will not accept countries borrowing more to boost spending.

Where might be the room for compromise?

The Germans would back funds from the European Union's structural funds supporting large-scale infrastructure projects.

They might agree to loosen some of the targets for reducing deficits.

The new French leader was told he would be welcomed with "open arms" in Berlin but it is not clear that Franco-German differences can be easily smoothed away.

The Germans will have to show some flexibility but they will not abandon insisting on tough new spending rules for the eurozone.

In Greece voters were threatened that a vote against austerity could lead to their having to leave the euro.

It made no difference.

They were told that leaving the euro would usher in a period of "mass poverty". It did not deter them.

They are already facing years of hardship.

Spending cuts - with more yet to come - were a condition for receiving a second bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund.

Politicians in Athens are now talking of renegotiating the bailout pact.

The Germans and the EU poured cold water on that. Greece faces a period of instability.

Once again Europe has a Greek problem.

Spain today saw its industrial output slump 7.5% from a year earlier, signalling that the downturn is deepening there.

Later this week the government in Madrid is likely to introduce new measures to help banks but fears are growing that the country will need some form of bailout - particularly for the banks.

In Italy, too, candidates opposed to austerity measures appear to have done well in local elections.

One candidate, Beppe Grillo, a comedian who wants to leave the euro, made big gains.

So in the eurozone there are open doubts as to whether the current policy is working while voters increasingly lose patience with spending cuts and hardship.

For Europe too this is a momentous event. For a long time the centre right has held the stage; now a socialist has won and European politics will feel the shudder.

Francois Hollande ran a shrewd campaign. He detected weariness with the high-octane presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy. He made a virtue out of being ordinary. He portrayed himself as a "Mr Normal" - a man to reassure the French public.

During a long campaign, his message was consistent. The economic policies of Nicolas Sarkozy, he said, had failed. Without growth there could be no recovery, he insisted.

With change comes uncertainty both for France and for Europe. Mr Hollande has never held government office. He is untested. He has promised to increase spending whilst balancing the budget, mainly through tax increases.

The truth is that if France is to bring its budget deficit down to 3% by 2013 then 18bn euros of cuts will have to be found next year. How that will be done did not receive much attention during the campaign.

Before the first round of voting Francois Hollande spoke the language of the left. "My true adversary in this battle," he said "has no name, no face, no party... it is the world of finance."

He promised to create 60,000 new education posts. He promised to squeeze the rich. "The soul of France is equality," he said.

During the second round we heard far less of this. By this time he knew he could depend on the votes of the far left. No more offerings needed to be made.

In office, however, he will be cautious and pragmatic, more of a social democrat than a socialist. He knows that the markets will be watching.

He cannot afford to see France's borrowing costs driven up. In reality his room for manoeuvre will be limited. During the campaign, President Sarkozy warned that an Hollande presidency would take France on the road to Greece and indulge in a festival of spending. His advisers are acutely aware of the dangers and they have already held conversations with top business people.

The rest of Europe will hold its breath. He has promised to make growth rather than austerity his priority. In saying this he challenges the German prescription for solving the eurozone crisis.

He simply does not believe that austerity first is working. His first official meeting after he is sworn in will be with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He has said that he will re-negotiate the pact that enforces greater discipline in the eurozone. Mrs Merkel has been quite clear: there will be no renegotiation. Mr Hollande says it is "not for Germany to decide the future of Europe".

He will be out to reclaim French influence over the future direction of the EU.

But there are early signs of compromise. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has said that they "will add a growth pact to the budget (fiscal) treaty".

Already Mr Hollande has changed the debate in Europe. Germany is more isolated than it was two months ago. The discussion now is how to jump-start the European economy. There is talk of increasing spending on infrastructure projects. The EU might relax its targets for cutting deficits.

Part of Mr Hollande's appeal was that he promised to defend the French social model and save what is called "French exceptionalism".

He has said that for certain people the pension age - only recently increased to 62 - will drop back to 60.

The 35-hour week will stay. It led some to see France as a country in denial, nostalgic for its past and seeking safety from a globalised economy. In office he will have to address the fundamental issue of whether the French way of life with its high social costs is sustainable.

As for Nicolas Sarkozy, the election became not just about a stagnating economy but about himself. A significant number of French people did not like his style. They did not expect a president to tell an awkward farmer to "get lost". They disliked his aggression and the cascade of ideas.

He came to power promising to modernise France. There was to be a "rupture" with the past. In the event his reforms were modest. He energetically fought the eurozone crisis, shoulder to shoulder with Angela Merkel, but unemployment rose to close to 10%. He led the West's response to Colonel Gaddafi but military campaigns rarely win elections.

He was the most brilliant politician of his generation but as he himself admitted he did not always act as the French people expected of a president. He lacked reserve.

During the campaign he made immigration, the movement of jobs abroad and open borders his big issues. "Europe," he said, "has given in too much to free trade and deregulation." He detected the French people felt insecure.

In the second round of the campaign he focused on these issues that are the natural territory of the far right whose votes he needed. It was a tactic without much prospect of success. The far right mistrusted him; he had spoken their language before and had not delivered.

In any event, the French people - as Mr Hollande observed - were less bothered by immigration and more concerned with unemployment.

It was one of the mysteries of the latter stages of the campaign that President Sarkozy did not focus more on the dangers of the eurozone crisis and of the risks of turning to an untested leader.

He believed that his relationship with the German chancellor was his trump card. He even considered her coming to campaign for him. The idea backfired.

In the end there was no consistency to his message. Mr Hollande did not seem dangerous. He cast himself in the mould of his mentor Francois Mitterrand. Mr Sarkozy made the fatal mistake of underestimating his rival, a man he regarded as useless.

He was an impulsive, energetic leader who became the latest of a long line of politicians to be destroyed by the eurozone crisis and by his own flaws.

Within minutes such sentiments were forgotten. This was a long, scrappy political fight which left the impression that neither candidate liked each other.

The economy was the main battleground in an argument which lasted nearly three hours.

The Socialist candidate Francois Hollande told President Sarkozy: "You have ruined the French economy." When the President said he was "unfairly blamed", Mr Hollande said "it's never your fault... whatever happens you are always happy".

That prompted President Sarkozy to say "It's a lie. it's a lie."

Later he called Mr Hollande a "little slanderer".

President Sarkozy said to Mr Hollande: "You want less rich people. I want fewer poor people." His opponent retorted: "You just protect the privileged."

Mr Hollande went on to say: "We are coming out of five years when France was struck down, when France was divided."

"Saying that we offered gifts to the rich... is a lie," said the president. Mr Hollande laughed.

The president said that France needed to do more to cut spending and debts. He said his opponent's spending plans would send France's debt through the roof and hurt the rest of Europe.

They argued over the eurozone crisis. "Europe has got over it," said the president. "Europe has never got over it," said Mr Hollande.

There was some agreement over whether there should be special treatment for France's Muslim community. Mr Hollande said he firmly supported France's ban on face-covering veils and rejected separate menus in public cafeterias.

Neither candidate scored a decisive victory. The key difference was in style. President Sarkozy was the more aggressive, the more agitated, leaning forward as he pressed his argument.

Mr Hollande was the more relaxed of the two and remained calm throughout. Those in France who dislike their hyperactive president's style will not have been reassured. But the president will hope that he has sowed doubts about Mr Hollande's experience and his economic plans.

For Mr Sarkozy it may have been the last chance to turn the election around.

Both camps have been leaving nothing to chance. The negotiations over the format have been long and detailed.

President Sarkozy has described it as "not a contest of words but a moment of truth".

It may be the last chance to give his campaign momentum. If the polls are right he needs to swing 1.5 million people to his side. He will go into the debate the underdog.

For Francois Hollande the challenge is to avoid any slip-up that will feed doubts over his economic plans or his inexperience in government. He has said: "I have no coach, just myself. It's not a boxing match or a wrestling match."

In the TV gallery controlling 20 cameras, both candidates will have their own director to guarantee fair coverage. President Sarkozy does not want any profile shots and Francois Hollande has sought reassurances there will be no reflections in his glasses.

When one candidate is speaking, the TV director cannot cut away to the other candidate for reaction shots. The temperature in the studio has been agreed. It will be between 19 and 20C. Neither candidate wants a sweaty top lip or brow. Each will have access to controls to cool the temperature around them.

A potential weakness in the format is that presenters will not be able to push candidates if they do not answer the question or they go off-track.

The president is a formidable debater. The danger is that he comes across as too aggressive or too angry. He cannot, however, afford to hold back.

The Sarkozy team believes that Francois Hollande's weakness is his spending plans and will try to use the debate to portray him as a left-winger with dangerous tax and spend policies.

For instance, how can he offer to recruit 60,000 more teachers whilst meeting EU targets for cutting the budget? To bring the deficit down to 3% next year, the IMF estimates the country will need 18bn euros of cuts.

At such a time how will he afford his spending plans? The president is likely to warn - as he has already - that his Socialist rival risks taking France on a road that will lead to Greece and its failed economy.

Mr Hollande has received wide attention for promising to make growth and not austerity his priority. He has promised to renegotiate the pact enforcing greater budgetary discipline in the eurozone.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said there won't be any renegotiation of the pact itself.

The president might try to suggest that an Hollande victory will damage Franco-German relations but this is delicate ground for many French voters who like the idea of their president standing up to Berlin. And Mr Hollande has some useful cover in that the president of the European Central Bank has said there needs to be a growth pact.

When criticised during the campaign, Mr Hollande has fallen back on attacking Mr Sarkozy's record. He has said that it isn't him that lost the country its triple-A rating or who allowed the numbers of unemployed to reach four million. He describes Mr Sarkozy as a "failed president".

Unless there is a major gaffe, these debates are crucially about style. I remember during the last election campaign in America that Barack Obama practised how to sit on a stool in order to appear relaxed and yet authoritative at the same time.

Part of Mr Hollande's success so far is that he has sold himself as Mr Normal. He has played up how ordinary he is in contrast with the man he refers to as Mr Zig Zag.

Yesterday, the president staged a Hollywood-style rally at the Trocadero with the Eiffel Tower as a backdrop. Cameras swooped across the crowd like at a pop concert. It was highly professional and flashy.

Mr Hollande does not mind that. He is out to reassure the French that he is an ordinary man who understands them and will protect their way of life with its high social spending.

Mr Hollande may not have been coached but he has taken advice from his former partner, Segolene Royal, who went up against Nicolas Sarkozy at the last election. She has two pieces of advice. Match Sarkozy "blow for blow" and manage the spin afterwards - the "media interpretation".

In the United States, as soon as the debate is over, advisers and supporters head for what they call "Spin Alley" where they try to define the story of the night with their candidate as winner.

These debates, however, rarely rescue a failing campaign but they have the potential to surprise, to deliver a defining moment. It is Nicolas Sarkozy's last opportunity to save his presidency.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, walked with her supporters surrounded by camera crews. This year she was the centre of attention and thousands of her supporters turned up.

She sees herself as having new influence in French politics, after she won nearly 6.5 million votes in the first round of the French elections. Since then she has been courted - especially by President Nicolas Sarkozy. He needs many of her votes to stay in the Elysee Palace.

Today she told her supporters to vote according to their conscience. "You are free citizens," she told them. But her advice was to abstain. She would cast a blank vote.

She told the crowd: "Don't expect the other two parties to fulfil their promises. They are not parties of the people."

The second round of the election is on Sunday, when the contest will be between President Sarkozy and the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Mr Hollande remains ahead in the polls.

Ms Le Pen detests President Sarkozy and has little time for Mr Hollande. Both men she accuses of betraying the working people of France.

Even so latest polls suggest that around 45% of her supporters will back the president, around 35% will abstain and an estimated 20% will support Mr Hollande.

Whatever, she has already left her mark on French politics and on Europe. She has forced even Mr Hollande to address the issue of immigration. Her attacks on globalisation have struck a chord. President Sarkozy has said "I do not want to let France be diluted by globalisation... Europe has given in too much to free trade and deregulation".

Latest poll results

Ifop

30 Apr

Ipsos

28 Apr

LH2

28 Apr

Harris

26 Apr

Francois Hollande

54%

53%

54%

55%

Nicolas Sarkozy

46%

47%

46%

45%

President Sarkozy, who only recently was standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Angela Merkel in defending more powers for Europe, now accuses Brussels of "weakening the concept of the nation".

The president has been dragged onto the far right's territory - patriotism and French values. In a speech on Sunday he used the word "borders" dozens of times. In the bare-knuckle dialogue of the campaign he has been accused of using language from Vichy France and its collaboration with the Nazis. He, for his part, has accused Francois Hollande of marching in front of the "red flags" of a communist union.

There are indications that some in the Sarkozy camp are uneasy with his drift to the right. Polls suggest that almost half of the French people believe he has tacked too far towards the National Front.

The president is planning a rally at the Trocadero for today. This has infuriated the unions, who say that May Day traditionally is for workers' marches. President Sarkozy has irritated them further by saying that he will showcase "real work" - the implication being that the Left do not understand the value of work.

As for Francois Hollande, he has had to make far fewer concessions to the far left. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a former Socialist minister, only scored 11% in the first round and is politely asking that the front-runner not overlook the issue of the minimum wage. Mr Hollande has been able to stick closer to the centre ground, claiming that his campaign is about consistency while portraying President Sarkozy as "Mr Zig-Zag".

The investment banker Matthieu Pigasse, who is a co-owner of Le Monde, says "if Hollande wins with a big margin he won't need to pick ministers who are tokens of the far left".

Although the president needs some of the far-right voters to back him, their issues are not what voters say matter the most. Overwhelmingly their priority is the economy and jobs.

In the final days of the campaign the president will try and expose Francois Hollande as a dangerous tax-and-spender, untested, whose plans would only deepen the French economic crisis. He has used this card before without much success, but it will feature strongly at the crucial TV debate on Wednesday night.

The battle for the Elysee Palace in France is a curtain-raiser for the battle for Europe.

Francois Hollande - the socialist candidate and favourite to win the French elections - has quite deliberately put himself at the head of the anti-austerity first movement. In doing so he has thrown the gauntlet down to Angela Merkel and German leadership.

He promises to renegotiate the so-called fiscal pact (the treaty to enforce budgetary discipline in the eurozone). Since the crisis began, no piece of legislation has been more important to the German leader. Mrs Merkel late last week said quite simply it "cannot be renegotiated". Francois Hollande delivered a stinging reply. "It is not Germany," he said, "that will decide for the entirety of Europe."

If Mr Hollande wins, he will say to Berlin, "Your way isn't working and that the French people have 'made a decision'."

He wants to re-cast the emphasis towards growth. The two leaders' first meeting will be tense to say the least.

Spain will concentrate Franco-German minds. According to one of its ministers, it is "in a crisis of enormous magnitude". One Spanish minister compared the country to the Titanic and had a warning for the Germans: "If there's a sinking here, even the first-class passengers drown."

The markets do not believe Spain can reduce its deficit to 5.3%. Its banks are nursing billions in bad loans from the collapse of the housing bubble - 367,000 jobs were lost in the first three months of the year.

There is increasing resistance to austerity. At the weekend there were protests against cuts to health and education. There could be protests on Thursday outside an European Central Bank meeting in Barcelona and 'Los Indignados' - the indignants - who occupied squares last year may try to repeat the action in the middle of the month.

A big economy - double the three economies rescued already - is heading into bailout territory. At the very least its banks will need help.

Next Sunday the Greeks go to the polls. They still have to implement some of the austerity measures that were a condition of the second bailout agreed last month. It is possible that a majority of MPs elected will be opposed to further spending cuts. Greece could be back in crisis.

At the end of May, the Irish will give their views of the pact in a referendum. The Italians, too, are holding local elections. The European public is getting a chance to deliver its verdict on austerity. Last week two European governments fell over the issue - the Netherlands and Romania.

What is being exposed is a major flaw with Mrs Merkel's fiscal pact. It is undemocratic. It ties the hands of future governments - and that, of course, was its intention but it doesn't stop voters opposing further cuts.

In the eurozone, deficits are being reduced. But debt - in many cases - is still growing. Growth is almost non-existent. Recession has returned for countries like Spain and Italy. The gap between the German economy and the southern economies is only widening.

Privately in Brussels there are fears that a revolt against more cuts will draw them in. They have become the enforcers of austerity. Some officials are worrying they will be caught in the backlash. Last week over 30% of French voters supported parties hostile to Brussels. The vote was dismissed as "populism" - which is the default response to most criticism - but they were the votes of real people.

The economist Nouriel Roubini described the eurozone crisis as a "slow-motion train wreck".

As we go into May, there are signs of a revolt against austerity gathering pace. If it happens it will be a new and unpredictable phase of the eurozone crisis.

If elected he will be "firm and friendly" with Angela Merkel but "Germany," he said, "must realise it is growth that will allow us to solve a big part of our problem".

Quite simply Mr Hollande believes that Europe is on the wrong path, that "austerity first" is not working; that Europe is being drawn into a spiral of decline. This policy, of course, has "made in Germany" stamped all over it.

Not surprisingly Mrs Merkel is still hoping for a President Sarkozy victory.

Mr Hollande wants to renegotiate the pact designed to impose discipline over budgets in the eurozone agreed last December. This treaty - as some call it - dictates that budget deficits must be no more than 3% of GDP by 2013. There will be debt brakes forcing countries to limit their structural deficits to 0.5% of output.

This fiscal pact was Angela Merkel's project to ensure that never again did eurozone countries run up debts and endanger the single currency.

But Mr Hollande is quite clear in his intentions: "I will renegotiate the treaty. Mrs Merkel knows that. And if the French people give me their backing, my first trip will be to confirm to her that the French people have voted for a different kind of Europe."

The words "a different kind of Europe" will not go down well in Berlin. What they imply in undiplomatic language is that German leadership has failed and that it is up to the French to steer Europe in a different direction.

Francois Hollande may have an ally in Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank. In the impenetrable language so often loved by central bankers he said that austerity was "starting to reverberate its contractionary effects". In other words, spending cuts and higher taxes are starting to shrink the real economies.

Mr Hollande is committed to balancing the French budget by 2017. He is not intending to renegotiate the fiscal pact itself. After all it would be difficult for the Irish to vote on it at the end of May if it was being re-written. What he wants is for a growth pact to form part of a wider package. Mario Draghi has also backed that.

For the Germans there is a red line: growth cannot be boosted by increasing borrowing. Mrs Merkel believes in structural reforms (freeing up labour markets) to restore competitiveness and eventually increase growth. But structural reforms take time and Europe does not have time.

Francois Hollande backs government bonds jointly issued by all countries that use the eurozone to finance industrial infrastructure projects.

It raises the question of who will select these projects and how long before they have an impact. He wants to use the funds from a financial transaction tax to invest in growth-making projects. And he wants the EU to deploy any unused structural funds in support of growth.

Again, it pays to be cautious: these funds have not always been used wisely.

There may well be a compromise between Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. Both leaders know that Europe depends on it.

The Franco-German relationship is the engine room of the entire EU project. Mrs Merkel said: "We need growth in the form of sustainable initiatives not stimulus programmes which would increase debts, but growth in the form of structural reform."

The Germans are likely to agree to some growth-boosting initiatives, but get ready for another round of summits that may or may not make a difference.

The doubts about the whole austerity strategy - made in Germany and policed by EU officials - are openly expressed.

The French elections lay bare the fault lines. If the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande wins he will not just be the first victor from the Left in France in 17 years. He has put down a marker - that he will challenge German leadership of the debt crisis.

Mr Hollande believes that austerity first is destroying parts of Europe. Yes, deficits have to be cut, but his priority will be growth. He has pitched his statements not just to the French people but to the rest of Europe. He wants to reorientate Europe on a path of growth and employment. It was not a surprise that yesterday Angela Merkel's spokesman at the German Chancellery said she still backs President Sarkozy.

The crisis, for a period, was confined to mainly southern European countries like Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal. It has now spread to the core.

The Dutch government, which had been an advocate of the strict austerity medicine, has collapsed. It found itself struggling to meet deficit targets. The government could not agree on the budget cuts needed to meet the targets set by EU officials.

The far-right politician Geert Wilders said "we don't want our pensioners to suffer for the sake of the dictators in Brussels". So the Netherlands drifts, awaiting elections in September, fearful that its AAA credit rating is at risk.

The fall of the Dutch government undermines the pact to enforce budgetary discipline in the eurozone agreed in December. This was Angela Merkel's great project to ensure that ill-discipline and overspending never haunted the currency union again. It already looks tattered.

The Spanish have challenged EU targets for reducing the deficit. Now, too, the Dutch. Francois Hollande promises to renegotiate the pact if elected French president, and shift the emphasis towards growth. The flaw of the pact is that politicians and governments in the end will listen to their voters.

The Germans are rattled. The foreign minister says the pact must remain in place. "What we have agreed on in Europe to overcome the debt crisis", said Guido Westerwelle, "is agreed and it holds".

"It will not be made dependent on election results." That is, of course, part of the problem because electorates want their votes to count.

The European economy is weakening. Even in Germany there is a sharp fall in manufacturing activity. Spain officially went into recession yesterday. Despite reductions in deficits, debt levels are still rising. Unemployment is increasing.

All of this reinforces the question: is the strategy for cutting deficits and depending on structural reforms to boost growth working?

Across Europe there are signs of revolt. In France 6.5 million people voted for the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen. Over 30% of French voters supported candidates who rejected austerity and were hostile to Brussels. The mood is one of deep disaffection towards mainstream parties. The elite is struggling to control the narrative.

On the same day that the French will return to the polls to elect a president - 6 May - the Greeks will go to the polls. A majority of Greek MPs elected may well challenge the austerity terms of the second bailout demanded by the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF. It was announced today that the Greek economy this year will shrink by 5% - the fith year of recession.

The problem is this: these countries - in a monetary union - cannot devalue. Their only remedy is internal devaluation, cutting wages and pensions in the hope that they can restore competitiveness with Germany. For many what lies ahead is years of hardship and austerity. It is a tough sell.

Difficult days are looming. A few months back Germany was dominating the argument in Europe. It is now much more isolated. Debt and deficits have to be reduced, but cuts to budgets and to social programmes are feeding into an unpredictable resentment in Europe.

Things fall apart.

The socialist candidate has one immediate advantage. The far left - represented by Jean-Luc Melenchon - has pledged its support to Mr Hollande.

President Sarkozy cannot, however, depend on the votes of the far right.

Marine Le Pen's vote at 19% exceeded all expectations. Her votes may well determine who wins the second round.

Last week at a Le Pen rally there were boos every time Sarkozy's name was mentioned. He is regarded by many on the right as a betrayer, a man who says one thing on the hustings and another when in office.

So will Nicolas Sarkozy go hunting those far-right voters? The fact is that he won't be re-elected without some of their votes.

He said the results show the importance of controlling immigration and saving jobs. Whereas Francois Hollande can tack to the centre, President Sarkozy must appeal to the right.

The first part of Sarkozy's speech after the vote touched on all the right-wing themes of identity, security, immigration and, as he put it, "the concern of our compatriots to preserve our way of life".

However determined President Sarkozy may be to fight on, he was rejected by a majority of the French people. A sitting president barely won a quarter of the vote.

"It's the first time that a former president is not leading the score," said Laurent Fabius, a former prime minister.

The first round result revealed a dissatisfaction and restlessness in France. The elites are despised. The economic future is feared. There is insecurity. All of that leads to volatility in the polls.

This result reveals yet again how the eurozone crisis continues to threaten incumbents. Nearly a fifth of voters backed a party that wants to ditch the euro and return to the franc.

Both the far left and the far right tapped into a deep disillusionment with globalisation and European institutions.

Hollande tries to surf this mood but understands how dangerous it is. He had this message - particularly for Berlin - that he wants to "re-orientate Europe on a path of growth and employment".

President Sarkozy cannot retain the presidency by just appealing to the right. He must attack the credibility of his opponent.

That is why he has challenged Francois Hollande to three TV debates. He believes that in a face-to-face argument he can expose the socialist economic programme as dangerous for France.

With a Hollande victory in prospect, it will be interesting to see what the markets do in the next two weeks and whether France's borrowing costs edge higher.

Marine Le Pen will now be a significant force in French politics.

She said the "first round isn't the end but the beginning of a vast coming-together of patriots of the right and the left, and the defenders of its identity, the lovers of what makes the French exceptional".

The president is the underdog. The polls are against him. He remains defiant, rounding on the media - what he calls "the Parisian caviar left" - for writing him off. He has a stubborn belief in the good sense of the silent majority. But within his camp the doubts are showing.

She stood there enjoying the rapture of an audience of 6,000 that filled the Zenith convention centre in Paris for the final rally of her campaign. She has become a powerful if at times operatic speaker. She bounced on to the stage in her black trouser suit and blonde hair, waving and smiling.

If the polls are right more than 30% of the French electorate will vote on Sunday for candidates who are openly hostile or critical of the EU. The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen wants to take France out of the euro. She believes that the European Union has not protected French jobs.

President Sarkozy has edged up in the polls but Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate, remains the favourite to win in the second round.

Others were equally optimistic. The French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, said "I want to tell the French people that the page of the financial crisis is turning. Today the problem is solved."

That is the challenge.

And so it was.