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Women's Super League title run-in: Will Chelsea or Manchester City come out on top?

Last updated on .From the section Women's Footballcomments91

Chelsea's Guro Reiten celebrates
Chelsea have a better goal difference than Manchester City after thrashing Bristol City in Emma Hayes' final home game

Chelsea have recovered their chances of winning the Women's Super League title.

After Manchester City's 2-1 defeat by Arsenal and Chelsea's 8-0 thrashing of Bristol City, the title race is poised to go down to the final day.

Chelsea entered Sunday six points adrift with a game in hand after losing to Liverpool in midweek but have now closed that gap to three points and have a goal difference one better than City's.

Chelsea manager Emma Hayes told Sky Sports after beating Bristol City: "What are the chances of that? That at the beginning of the day that Arsenal would beat City late on and we would win 8-0, what are the odds of that?

"That shows you what you can do when you have belief."

Hayes' side have an extra game to play and will move top if they beat Tottenham on 15 May.

Chelsea are seeking a fifth successive league title in her final season in charge, while City are looking to win the WSL for the first time since 2016.

City boss Taylor has always said the WSL title would need to be won on the final day.

"I always said I thought it would go to the final game and it's never changed. We knew what we had to do," said Taylor.

"Chelsea opened the door the other night and we've opened it back again a little bit. It is what it is, but nothing has changed in our thought process."

How are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? And who does Opta predict will win the title?

Current table

Women's Super League after 5 May
TeamPlayedPointsGDForm (past 5 games)
1. Man City2152+45WWWWL
2. Chelsea2049+46WWWLW
3. Arsenal 2147+28WWWDW

City had been on a WSL record 14-match winning run before their dramatic defeat by Arsenal, who are too far back to contest the title.

If goal difference is level at the end of the season, the title outcome will be decided on goals scored - and Chelsea lead City 64-59 on that metric.

If teams are level on both goal difference and goals scored, the next deciding factor is the number of league wins, followed by head-to-head record against their title rivals. City would edge a head-to-head against Chelsea, having won away and drawn at home.

What are the remaining fixtures?

ChelseaManchester City
15 MayTottenham (A)
18 MayMan Utd (A)Aston Villa (A)

Taylor's side still have to play Aston Villa on the final day, while Chelsea face FA Cup finalists Tottenham and fifth-placed Manchester United.

What does the Opta 'supercomputer' suggest?

Predicted Women's Super League final table - Opta as of 7 May
Team% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Manchester City53.91st - 52 points
2. Chelsea46.12nd - 49 points

Opta's 'supercomputer' prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings - based on historical and recent team performances.

These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

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91 comments

  • Comment posted by bridgeboy, at 13:05 18 Mar

    Certainly not Arsenal, it's a two horse race now.

  • Comment posted by Lawrence , at 17:49 17 Mar

    Eidevall putting rusty Williamson in and not utilising Russo's hold up play at the start of the Chelsea game were bizarre gambles that cost them and realistically have put them out of contention.

    • Reply posted by JimP, at 18:55 17 Mar

      JimP replied:
      The biggest problem was pushing Kim into attack when Hannah had the ball, effectively going to a 4-2-4 against a team playing 4-4-2. Eidevall's been doing that for weeks, Hayes would have watched that (she was at the Spurs game) and knew that if they passed the ball quickly into midfield then Arsenal would be overwhelmed and vulnerabe to a quick counter attack. It's not rocket science.

  • Comment posted by TC, at 13:24 18 Mar

    Arsenal would need a miracle for both Chelsea and City to drop six points. Absent Europe, City have fewer games and that might give them an edge but Chelsea have shown time and again that they have a winning mentality. I'm biased and think Chelsea will (just about) do it. Whatever happens, City deserve huge plaudits for the way they have played in the latter part of the season. Not over yet!

  • Comment posted by Mr B, at 12:46 18 Mar

    I think Chelsea because City and Arsenal have each other can see that being a draw

  • Comment posted by AZ_Google, at 10:42 18 Mar

    As it stand, ONLY the current top two teams are genuine title contenders with Chelsea being favorites. Arsenal now battling to keep hold of the final UCL spot along with Man Utd and revived Liverpool sounds more realistic.

  • Comment posted by John-not-in-hendon, at 19:16 18 Mar

    I mean arsenal are not likely to win it are they ,6 points behind with 6 games left.

  • Comment posted by JimP, at 18:49 17 Mar

    The advantage City have over Chelsea is the number of games. Chelsea also have a Conti Cup final, FA Cup semi and final, Champions League quarter final x2 and semi-final x2 before they get to the end of the WSL season. That's a lot of games, and risks player burn out and injuries.

    • Reply posted by MikeTee, at 20:41 17 Mar

      MikeTee replied:
      Chelsea get alot of help from officoals every season plus have the biggest squad so its hard to see anyone else winning it again

  • Comment posted by mark, at 18:54 18 Mar

    The team with the most points…

  • Comment posted by sayitagainsam, at 15:25 18 Mar

    This is what Football is all about top class sides going for it fans of all Clubs will be getting nervous and having sleepless nights it must be really hard for the players who must maintain top class performances at all times, can see many of the remaining games having brilliant crowds watching, it`s going to be great for all fans.

  • Comment posted by OutsidersPOV, at 12:06 18 Mar

    The Opta 'supercomputer' predicts the final table every week until it finally gets it right at the end of the season.

  • Comment posted by herden walwarth, at 16:10 18 Mar

    Hard to say, but a few scattershot factors to juggle with: Chelsea are Kerr-less and James can blow hot and cold, Leah Williamson isn't back to her imperious best yet, Hampton is starting to look a more solid keeper than either Zinsberger or Keating, Ilestedt is out for the run-in, City possess the outstanding midfield string-puller in Hasegawa, Russo seems to have gone off the boil a bit [...]

  • Comment posted by Graham, at 14:00 18 Mar

    Chelsea’s title to lose…

  • Comment posted by Baggieman, at 13:39 18 Mar

    2 horse race for me and I think, with Chelsea s long injury list , Man City will just get over the line .

    • Reply posted by ICU, at 13:41 18 Mar

      ICU replied:
      Agreed mults.

  • Comment posted by Eye_Said, at 21:06 18 Mar

    ManC fan

    For me, Chelsea are the strongest team in the WSL

  • Comment posted by Chelsea1967, at 21:19 18 Mar

    After last Friday the Gooners have left themselves too much to do. It'll be close between Chelsea and City but being a Chelsea fan I'll put faith in our women to triumph.

    • Reply posted by John-not-in-hendon, at 21:34 18 Mar

      John-not-in-hendon replied:
      Chelsea 1967 I saw that cup final at Wembley against the mighty Tottenham ,great memories for me .

  • Comment posted by Terry , at 16:47 18 Mar

    I hope it's city, can't stand the arrogance of Hayes and James and they also have another thing in common - they never apologise when they're in the wrong!

  • Comment posted by bobby, at 21:03 17 Mar

    Are Arsenal really in the mix????

    • Reply posted by Gerry, at 09:09 18 Mar

      Gerry replied:
      Yes, they are, but I can't help thinking their manager thinks more about himself than the team. It only takes two valiant efforts to put Arsenal on level pegging but then they have to go for goals. A big ask but yes they are.

  • Comment posted by ICU, at 13:39 18 Mar

    Who knows? ....There are "multiple" outcomes and a few twists and turns yet.

    My money would be - on Chelsea tho.

  • Comment posted by guitarman, at 17:13 17 Mar

    arsenal 8%, seriously?

    • Reply posted by guitarman, at 17:28 17 Mar

      guitarman replied:
      bristol city have as much chance as arsenal

  • Comment posted by Forgotten in North Wales, at 08:25 18 Mar

    As an Arsenal supporter , would be a dream to win title but think trying to overtake two teams with a 6 point lead is a task too far , Chelsea,s success may be their downfall with so many more games to play so it looks like City.

    • Reply posted by Gerry, at 09:05 18 Mar

      Gerry replied:
      Their possible downfall would be due to City playing really well, as they have all season, and Chelsea dropping two points. That they have so many games left is neither here nor there. Two months left of the WSL for about 6 games. Top professionals do not suffer burn out over a normal season. Chelsea have also lost their star centre forwards but are coping.

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