Will more Welsh patients go to England? It's unclear

You might well be confused as to what Labour’s plan for cross-border NHS co-operation actually involves.

It was first announced by Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens and Wales’ First Minister Eluned Morgan at Labour’s conference in Liverpool last month.

In an interview with BBC Wales, Stevens pushed hard on the idea of Welsh patients crossing the border for surgery.

Sharing best practice between the two health services was also part of the plan.

The goal: to try to bring down Wales’ record NHS waiting lists.

But since the announcement the secretary of state on the one hand; the FM and Welsh government ministers on the other appear to be saying different things.

The confusion has found its way beyond patients on waiting lists, to the floors of both the Senedd and the House of Commons.

It is still unclear to what extent more patients from Wales will be heading over the border for operations.

On Wednesday Jo Stevens doubled down in another live BBC interview that, subject to capacity, Welsh patients will be going over the border.

Welsh ministers over the past three weeks appear to have steered away from this idea and have emphasised how important cross-border co-operation and sharing of best practice will be.

The Welsh government has also pointed to the recent appointment of a panel of health experts, called a Ministerial Advisory Group, to look at improvements.

This includes how to bring down waiting lists. The panel is due to report back in March.

Welsh government sources suggest that eventually the plan will lead to greater cross border surgical travel, but that it won’t be something that happens immediately.

Jo Stevens’ comments on 23 September suggested a more immediate return from the policy.

Later on Wednesday, a spokesperson for Welsh Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said: "Comments by the secretary of state for Wales about patients having surgery in England are not at odds with comments by the first minister and health minister about there not being much capacity in England.

"The Ministerial Advisory Group will be able to advise on best practice. It will be meeting for the first time on 25 October.”

So what has happened between 23 September and now in terms of the message being put across?

The simple answer is that we do not know.

Could it be that the cross-border surgery element of this has been oversold?

Could it be that the plan was not fully formed yet and was faced with the reality that England does not have much space to offer?

Opposition parties think there is no plan.

They wait for answers. Patients wait too.

But despite a general election pledge from Labour to bring down waiting lists and the first minister making it her top priority, we still do not know the exact details of how this cross-border plan will start to bring them down.

Until we get those answers, you might well remain confused.

How did we get here?

There's been many twists and turns in this story so far, here's a timeline of how we got to this current point:

Monday 23 September, Labour conference in Liverpool

Jo Stevens announces a cross-border NHS plan with the first minister, with plans for Welsh patients to travel across the border by developing "mutual aid partnerships" for surgery to help bring down waiting lists.

She is asked: "If I'm on a waiting list and watching this, am I any closer to having my procedure done because of this?"

She responds: "Yes. English NHS trusts and Welsh health boards will work together... through identifying capacity... and making sure we can get people into theatre, get their operations and get them back to work and back to their families."

Tuesday 24 September, First Minister's Questions in the Senedd

Senedd Tory leader Andrew RT Davies twice asks the FM how many Welsh patients will benefit from the cross-border plan and what it will cost.

The first minister does not address those questions initially but instead talks about the co-operation that already exists and of being "keen to ensure we share best practice".

This is the other strand of the cross-border plan, although also not free of controversy.

Davies has another go, to which the FM replies that a conversation has started and that they will "come up with the details in weeks to come".

Sunday 13 October, BBC Wales' Politics Wales programme

Jeremy Miles is asked whether England has the capacity to take Welsh patients. He replies: "That isn't what we're talking about."

Tuesday 15 October, the Senedd

Plaid Cymru's leader Rhun ap Iorwerth asks the FM what Jo Stevens meant by newspaper quotes very similar to the ones she gave Wales Today back on 23 September.

This time the FM goes on the offensive saying: "I think people have been putting words into our mouth in terms of what the relationship is and what it was that we announced."

She goes on to say "frankly there is not much capacity in England either at the moment. I'll tell you what it's about. It's about learning best practice".

And finally...

Wednesday 16 October, Prime Minister's Questions in the Commons and BBC Politics Live studio

A Plaid Cymru question, from Plaid's leader in the House in PMQs, accuses Labour of "making it up as they go along".

Jo Stevens repeats her comments that the plan was about "identifying capacity so that we can use that capacity to bring down waiting lists for elective surgery".