Weston-super-Mare: Could Labour knock Tories off seat?

The Conservatives hold Weston-super-Mare by a majority of more than 17,000

The Victorian coastal town of Weston-super-Mare attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors every year to its Grand Pier and beach.

It is also a big Tory stronghold. John Penrose has successfully held the seat since 2005 and currently commands the biggest majority he has ever had - 17,121 after the 2019 general election.

The seat has been out of the Tories' hands only twice since its inception in 1918: for one year in 1923, and from 1997 to 2005 under the Liberal Democrats.

But with nearly two weeks until the general election, campaigning is in full swing and polls suggest Labour could take the seat for the first time in its history.

The recent boundary review has substantially changed the seat.

Most of the surrounding villages have moved into the new Wells and Mendip Hills constituency.

This means the constituency is left with just the town of Weston, Bleadon, Locking and the island of Steep Holm.

In a new look Weston, what chance is there of a shock this time around?

Dr Thom Oliver, senior lecturer of Politics at the University of the West of England, said Labour may benefit from the boundary review based on the May local election results.

However he added that it is "one indicator" and "voting behaviour can differ significantly between local and general elections".

Weston-super-Mare could have a Labour MP for the first time in the town's history

"There hasn’t been any constituency level polling done yet in Weston-super-Mare, so we are reliant on what is called MRP polling which takes polls from a national sample and applies them to local constituency contests based on their demographic and geographic make up," Dr Oliver said.

"The recent YouGov MRP poll suggests Labour is in a strong position to challenge the Conservative dominance of the constituency, and that will be a message they will be keen to push as the main challengers.

"Looking at the national polling picture Weston-super-Mare, even with a 17,000 majority to turn, opposition parties will believe that it is very winnable, especially if one of them can position themselves as the direct competitor and squeeze the votes of other political parties."

What are the key issues?

Some may point to the cost of living crisis exacerbating historical deprivation issues in the town as being a key talking point.

Weston was highlighted as among coastal areas suffering from health inequalities earlier this year, receiving funding as a result.

It was one of three coastal communities identified by University of Bristol as being among the most deprived in the UK after a study.

Estates like Bournville specifically struggle the most financially in the town, and family breakdown is common.

The election will be the first opportunity local voters have to voice their concerns about the cost of living crisis via a ballot.

However the possibility of Labour ending the Conservatives' streak - and wiping a big majority - remains to be seen.

Who are the candidates?

Use the tool below to look up who is standing in your area in the General Election on 4 July.

Additional reporting by the Local Democracy Reporting Service.