What is the future of Reform in Scotland and are they here to stay?

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party garnered four million votes in the UK general election

When the history books look back on the 2024 general election they’ll talk of huge Labour majorities, Conservative collapses, and maybe even some SNP woes.

But there were other aspects of this month’s election worthy of some attention.

Not least the performance of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party – a new-ish entity that garnered four million votes.

We may think of them as more of an English phenomenon, but Reform received a 7% share in Scotland (that’s more than the Greens).

So how seriously should the Scottish political establishment take Reform? And are they here to stay?

To find out, I visited the constituency of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where Reform had their best Scottish performance in this month’s election.

The party came third here with around 5,500 votes. That might not sound like a particularly ground-breaking result, but their role was important.

Douglas Ross, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, lost the seat to the SNP by fewer than 1,000 votes.

Had another right-wing party not challenged him, Mr Ross would probably have been returned to Westminster.

Reform candidate and former nurse Jo Hart said her party is for "making Britain great again"

Jo Hart, a former nurse, was the Reform candidate. Standing by Peterhead port as fishing boats come and go, she told me why she got involved.

Reform is “very much a party about making Britain great again”, she says, voicing concern that we’ve “diluted our traditions and cultures".

She talks of getting back to “common sense” politics and laments an increase in “career politicians".

Pressed on specific policies, she said she wants to see more oil and gas exploration and is concerned that windfarms are a form of “new Highland clearances” with people being “paperworked” off their land.

I point out that many in Scotland see huge opportunities as we increase renewables.

But Jo is concerned we’re seeing the countryside turned into “nothing but turbines”.

Having driven across the constituency earlier that day, it didn’t feel at all like a landscape that’s dominated by turbines. Though there’s no doubt it’s an issue that some locals feel passionate about.

I put it to Jo that modern politics is complex, and Reform seems to regularly default to simplistic slogans.

She insists that their policies are all achievable, adding “sometimes simple is better”.

Reform voter PJ Coutts said party leader Nigel Farage "tells the truth and everybody lies about him"

Jo introduced me to a few Reform voters she’s brought along. Despite different political backgrounds, they all backed the party this month.

John Cox is a former SNP councillor, Susan Emmison has traditionally voted Conservative, and PJ Coutts is a veteran who is sympathetic to Scottish independence.

Common themes emerge as we chat. There’s definitely a feeling that the traditional parties don’t really speak for areas like Peterhead.

Concern is expressed about immigration. Susan says there isn’t the infrastructure to cope with the current numbers, and PJ tells me "you cannae pour from an empty cup, so how about we fill our cup up first before we start seeing to everybody else?"

The impact of net-zero policies is also raised apprehensively.

John believes that local communities aren’t reaping the rewards. He’d also like to see more focus on the future of Scottish fishing.

And what about the Reform Party leader Nigel Farage? Back in 2013 he required a police escort to get out of an Edinburgh pub due to protests. Does he go down well in other parts of Scotland?

These three Reform voters are certainly fans.

“He tells the truth and everybody lies about him”, says PJ.

Douglas Ross said the public would be watching Reform MPs closely to see if they are "disruptive for the sake of it"

At the other end of this constituency, Douglas Ross is still analysing his unsuccessful campaign and the role Reform may have played in it.

He believes Nigel Farage’s party tapped into Scottish Brexit voters who felt that leaving the EU hadn’t delivered enough.

He acknowledges this hit the Conservatives hardest, and he came across voters who were “disillusioned with politics".

The outgoing Scottish Conservative leader said the public would be looking “very closely” at how new Reform MPs behave, to see if they bring about positive change or are “disruptive for the sake of it".

'Smaller pool of voters'

We shouldn’t overstate Reform’s performance at this election. They caused a bit of noise, but were nowhere near getting a Scottish MP elected.

But the more proportionate voting system at the next Scottish Parliament election could help them make some inroads.

The polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice explains that if they replicated their 2024 vote share they’d be looking at a “small, but not insignificant presence” in Holyrood after 2026.

He says their voters tend to be those who “still believe in the Brexit project” and have previously voted Conservative. That makes life a bit difficult for the party in Scotland.

Simply speaking, there are proportionately fewer here who fit this mould compared to elsewhere in the UK. The party, in other words, is fishing in a smaller pool of voters.

One Reform UK insider told me the leadership is taking the 2026 Holyrood election “very, very seriously”. They added that party WhatsApp conversations have already turned to Scottish policy.

Radically scaling back net-zero commitments and supporting continued oil and gas exploration are likely to feature prominently in their electoral offer.

This is likely to be combined with socially conservative positions, such as opposition to gender self-ID.

The party considers itself unionist, but there’s a relatively relaxed attitude about the idea of a second independence referendum, if it’s what Scots vote for.

Reform represents the third political project Nigel Farage has led. Neither UKIP or the Brexit Party ever had an MSP elected to Holyrood.

But this new party is determined to make it third time lucky as the 2026 Scottish election looms.