Under pressure: Tories facing problems in the West

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a summer election

The West Country has been a big part of the Conservative successes in four successive general elections.

Over time, Labour have been reduced to a handful of MPs in Bristol.

And, in 2015 the Liberal Democrats were wiped out altogether in the region.

But in the 2024 general election both parties expect - and the polls suggest - that they will take seats off the Tories.

One of the most hard-fought places in the West is Swindon.

How 'bellwether' could predict result

Being a quick train ride from Westminster is a factor; but being a political bellwether - a trendsetter - matters most.

At nearly every general election, the result in Swindon has mirrored the overall choice of the nation.

Both seats in the town have been held by the Conservatives since they came to power.

Both seats are under real pressure from Labour, who won big in recent local elections.

Swindon's results have traditionally told the story of the General Election

Labour also hopes to make gains in Gloucestershire, targeting Stroud and Gloucester as seats they can retake.

They are also pushing hard in places around Bristol: Filton and Bradley Stoke as well as North East Somerset and Hanham.

The latter is a rematch of the 2010 general election, when Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg ousted Labour’s Dan Norris.

These days he is the West of England Mayor – but is seeking revenge against one of Britain’s best-known Tories.

What about boundary changes?

There are many new names we will be getting used to.

To equalise the size of constituencies, there have been extensive boundary changes.

That is especially so in Somerset, where the Liberal Democrats are aiming for gains.

It was the scene of a big by-election success last year; the victor, Sarah Dyke, will try to repeat her success in the new seat of Glastonbury and Somerton.

Also on the Lib Dem target list are Yeovil, Taunton and Wellington, and Wells and the Mendip Hills, as well as Chippenham in Wiltshire.

But their best hope is Cheltenham, where fewer than a thousand votes separated sitting Conservative Alex Chalk from his Lib Dem challenger in 2019.

Could the Greens have hope?

But not every close contest involves the blues. In Bristol Central the Greens will make a huge push.

They recently outgunned Labour in city council elections, and have made the new constituency a top target.

It will pit party co-leader Carla Denyer against shadow cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire, and will be closely watched.

Here and elsewhere the campaigning will be intense.

On 5 July there will be a new political map of the West of England.

Voters will decide how it will be coloured in.