Primary school numbers drop due to low birth rates

A decision is due to be made on closing St Mary's Church of England Infant School in Shackleford

The number of children starting primary school education in Surrey has fallen by the equivalent of 56 classes, council papers show.

The School Organisation Plan 2025-2035 aims to set out how Surrey County Council (SCC) should make sure there are sufficient places to meet demand over the next 10 years.

The report says falling birth rates, alongside other changes, means there are too many infant, junior and primary places than are needed by children and, in some cases, school closures will have to be considered.

Jonathan Hulley, SCC's cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: "The primary and secondary school populations in Surrey, and across the country, are changing."

SCC said between 2003 and 2012, Surrey saw a 22% increase in births, but there was a decline from 2013, which has affected Reception to Year 2 year groups.

In October 2016, there were 13,438 children who had just started in reception.

But by October 2024, that had fallen to 11,735 children, a drop of 12.7% - the same as 56 classes.

The council says it is "committed to working with schools to develop innovative solutions that work towards achieving long term sustainability for all schools".

It said: "We also must acknowledge the reality that in cases where the number of children remains too low and is not projected to increase, all outcomes must be considered, including that of school closure."

Pupils could be moved to another school in Puttenham if St Mary's C of E Infant School is closed

One of the schools currently at risk of closing is St Mary's Church of England Infant School in Shackleford, where the number of pupils dropped from 81 in October 2021 to 44 in October 2024.

Following a consultation, a decision on the school's future is due to be announced on 7 July.

People in the village told BBC Radio Surrey it will be "very sad" if the closure does go ahead.

The report raises the concern that, because schools get money from the government based on the number of children attending them, a "high number of vacant places" can result in less money for staff, equipment, and maintenance work.

SCC also said it is expected that there will be more than 2,000 extra specialist school places in Surrey, including for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), by 2029.

The Department for Education (DfE) has been approached for a comment.

Jonathan Hulley says: "High quality education is key to transforming the outcomes of children and young people. The primary and secondary school populations in Surrey, and across the country, are changing."

He said SCC was working "collaboratively" with its partners, including schools, academy trusts and dioceses, "to secure sustainable settings and schools, and to continue to provide secure, high quality provision across the county".