Local expert predicts zero growth in 'gloomy' 2025

General view of Gloucester city centre with buses and vehicles along the street. Some businesses are boarded up.Image source, Google
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The National Insurance increase could make it a very tough year for smaller companies, experts predict

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An expert has predicted a county will experience zero economic growth during a "gloomy" 2025.

Ian Mean, member of Gloucestershire County Council's new economic growth board, said the government's National Insurance (NI) rise from 13.8% to 15% will stall businesses' growth and be the biggest challenge in the year ahead.

One small firm he spoke to said the NI increase will mean they pay about £30,000 more per year.

"It's going to be very difficult for these small firms to take on more people when they are going to be paying more tax - that's a very major problem," he said.

"In Gloucestershire, the driver of our economy are the SMEs, the smaller to medium-sized businesses, we have got under 30,000 of those.

"When you talk to businesses, they're pretty gloomy.

"We can see no sign of any sort of growth, zero growth," said Mr Mean, who is also director of Business West, which offers support to start-up and growing businesses.

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Mr Mean has warned more job cuts are likely across the county

Councillor David Gray, who is the county council's cabinet member for economy and also sits on the economic growth board, echoed Mr Mean's predictions.

He said: "The impact of the changes made in the budget, most notably the National Insurance hike, especially for small businesses that drive most growth, will continue to subdue growth nationally and locally."

When announcing the NI rise, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the move would help "restore stability to our country" and "protect working people".

Economic boost

However, Mr Mean does believe that Gloucestershire has some good news headed its way in 2025.

New nuclear operations in Oldbury and Berkeley could bring 5,000 jobs in their initial stages.

"What we have got here is a very exciting opportunity for small to medium reactors.

"We get to know in the spring which companies will design and develop them," he said.

Working with Rolls Royce, Chiltern Vital Group plans to build a low-carbon energy "super cluster" in Berkeley.

Rolls Royce, which is leading the development of small reactors, estimate each one would cost about £2bn.

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