Cheltenham: Could it be a general election photo finish?

Cheltenham is famed for it's annual horse racing festival which takes place in March

In the spiritual home of jump racing, Cheltenham is traditionally considered a two-horse race when it comes to general elections.

The seat has been exclusively passed between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives since the 1950s, with constituents embracing tactical voting.

Aside from the two frontrunners, there’s a wide field of candidates with silks of many colours vying to win on July 4.

The constituency

Famous around the world for it’s annual horse racing festival, Cheltenham has a varied voting population which includes students, families and retirees.

The constituency has been held since 2015 by Conservative incumbent, Alex Chalk, who has served as Justice Minister in the most recent government.

The Liberal Democrats also have deep-set roots in the seat, having held it for more than two decades from the 1990s.

As such, they are fiercely targeting Cheltenham, with leader, Ed Davey, even launching his campaign in the town centre in May.

And there are many who believe the Liberal Democrats stand a very good chance this time round.

Five years ago the Conservatives retained the seat with a very slim majority of less than 1,000 votes. The party is also fresh from a poor set of local election results in May, which saw all of their councillors wiped out, while the Liberal Democrat vote was strengthened.

Labour has historically been the third party in the constituency and will be looking to increase its vote share, similarly the Greens will be looking to capitalise on their recent success in the local elections where they went from two to three councillors.

An independent candidate is also challenging the seat, while Reform UK is not fielding a representative.

Cheltenham A&E has previously been threatened with closure

The big issues

Housing is regularly mentioned on the doorsteps across the town, with demand for affordable homes to rent and buy consistently outstripping supply. Latest figures show the average house price in Cheltenham during the 2023/24 financial year was £405,000, an increase of 6% 2021.

The Golden Valley development, which includes plans for almost 4,000 new homes and a cyber park in the west of the town, should help to ease this issue. But final completion of this huge project is many years away.

NHS services remain a hot issue across the seat. There have long been concerns about the future of Cheltenham’s A&E department, which has been threatened with closure in the past. Although fully operational, it has regularly had to close over the past two years due to industrial action with patients directed to Gloucester.

The hospital’s birth centre has also been closed since 2022. The site is currently undergoing a £2.7m relocation and refurbishment, and is due to reopen by 2025. However, the ongoing issue with midwife recruitment and retention across Gloucestershire has raised questions about staffing in the unit.

The candidates

Alex Chalk, Conservative

Lara Chaplin, Labour

Daud McDonald, Independent

Max Wilkinson, Liberal Democrats

Daniel Wilson, Green