Are people betting on the general election?
Paddy Power is expecting more betting action during the week of the 4 July election
- Published
Tory Senedd member Russell George is the fifth Conservative to face inquiries by the Gambling Commission over a bet on the timing of the general election.
On Tuesday the member of the Senedd (MS) for Montgomeryshire said he would co-operate fully with the commission and has "stepped back" from the Senedd's Conservative frontbench.
It came on the same day the Conservatives withdrew their support for two general election candidates, including Mr George's colleague Craig Williams, who is standing in the newly-named constituency of Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr.
But how interested are ordinary voters in having a flutter?
Bookies admitted they were not exactly rushed off their feet.
"This year is slightly quieter than we may have seen in previous elections, primarily because Labour are expected to get an overwhelming majority,” said Brett Williams from Unibet.
“In other years, when it's been slightly more open, we have seen a little bit more interest.”
Those who were having a punt were not betting massive amounts, he said, mostly £5 or £10.
At Paddy Power it has been a "slow burner" too, said its PR manager Rachael Kane, who added: "We see most action on the week of an election."
- Published3 July
Brett Williams says most people betting on the election are spending between £5 and £10
Brett said the televised leader debates seemed to tempt more people to place bets and the "big mover" had been Reform UK.
Unibet customers are already thinking beyond the next prime minister and have been betting on the future leaders of the parties.
It has Andy Burnham as the favourite to be Labour leader after Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch for the Conservatives after Rishi Sunak.
Brett said another "interesting betting market" was voter turnout and the number of seats each party will win.
Rachael says political betting was "one for the anoraks who know their stuff"
So could any particular outcome cause the bookies a problem?
No, said Brett, adding: "Our liabilities are very, very low…. we are just talking quite minimal stakes really."
Rachel said if Reform UK won an overall majority it would be Paddy Power's biggest general election pay-out.
Despite fewer people betting on this election than previous elections, Brett said generally speaking elections tended to attract more custom than other national moments, for instance the naming of a royal baby, because it “affects everybody's lives”.
But overall, betting on politics was "probably quite a niche area", he said.
"Political betting is one for the anoraks who know their stuff," agreed Rachael.
"But it all comes down to how engaged the public are in a topic.
"If people are talking about it, then people are more likely to have a punt on it as it will get more attention in the news cycle and as a result they'll feel better informed and more likely to have a flutter."
Charity Gamble Aware advises anyone betting to:
Set a money limit in advance and stick to it
Walk away from your losses
Treat gambling as an expense
Set a time limit in advance
Notice your feelings
Keep other activities in the mix
Take lots of breaks
Be careful if you drink or do drugs