Unexpected unionist leaders have a lot in common

Not only are Mike Nesbitt (L) and Gavin Robinson both unexpected leaders of their parties, they are also related.

The pending enthronement of Mike Nesbitt as Ulster Unionist leader may be as close as anyone ever comes to unionist unity.

You see he and the DUP leader Gavin Robinson are related.

Mr Nesbitt is the East Belfast MP's first cousin once removed - that is, they are cousins separated by a generation - and by the standards of the unionist family that is close.

Something else they have in common is that both became leader in unexpected circumstances.

In Gavin Robinson's case it was the arrest and charging of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson with rape and other historical sex offences.

In Mr Nesbitt's it was the sudden resignation of Doug Beattie, blamed on "irreconcilable differences" with party officers.

Mr Robinson's trajectory was upwards and he would probably have reached the top job eventually, if not quite as soon.

But a few months ago Mike Nesbitt was on the Stormont back benches, "cruising towards the next Assembly election" in his words, with "no particular intention to stand again" when Doug Beattie asked him to become health minister.

Now he's on the cusp of once again leading a party badly in need of leadership.

He speaks of having "unfinished business" which ended last time with him quitting in the middle of a difficult election count in 2017.

Too liberal?

So why does he - and indeed his party - think he will succeed this time where he failed last time? And if Doug Beattie was too liberal for many in the ranks of the self-proclaimed broad church, then surely he is too.

Not so according to a former leader from the "traditional wing". Tom Elliott and many others in the party's biggest constituency association - Fermanagh South Tyrone - would not share Mr Nesbitt's views on things like same-sex marriage and the GAA. But he says that is not a major problem.

"The majority in Fermanagh South Tyrone are fairly supportive of Mike, " says the man who lead the UUP from 2010 until Mike Nesbitt took over in 2012. "OK he's more socially liberal than some but he always listens even if he doesn't always do what everyone wants.

"The general view is he did a good job last time except maybe for the last few months."

That’s a reference to Mike Nesbitt's support for being in official opposition with the SDLP, otherwise known as "Vote Mike Get Colum, Vote Colum get Mike."

Colum being the then SDLP leader Colum Eastwood.

Colum has announced he is resigning - just as Mike gets ready to come back.

At the time Mr Nesbitt claimed he’d been "burned" from the leadership job by unionist sectarianism, comparing unionism to a frog sitting in a pot of water unaware of the threat to its existence as the temperature rises.

But another former UUP member says Mike Nesbitt's early tenure as leader was "a missed opportunity".

"Mike managed to lose the likes of David McNarry from one end of the party and people like Basil McCrea and John McCallister from the other," said the source.

"So I really don't know what is likely to change second time around."

Another source more favourable to Mike Nesbitt says his return is "not terrible, not great".

"I think the best thing that can be said is that we've gone through a few political novices as leader and with experience he might be better this time."

Supporters point to the fact he opposed Brexit and warned of consequences which subsequently played out to the detriment of unionism.

Whatever Mike Nesbitt's next tenure is like, it is unlikely to be dull.

This is the man who just after becoming leader the first time said he wanted to spend 24 hours with a family in a socially deprived area.

His host Phillip Ferris said he'd found the politician "humble and genuine."

The DUP branded Nesbitt's offer as "crass and patronising".

He also refused to comment after being photographed lying face down on the floor of a Belfast hotel.

The Strangford MLA apologised and resigned from a Stormont committee in 2020 after being found to have broken lockdown rules.

The incident continues to dog him; a councillor resigned from the party in protest at his appointment at health minister earlier this year.

But for all that, Mr Nesbitt continues to enjoy support throughout the party as seen by the fact no-one feels strongly enough about his pending appointment to mount a challenge.

"The thing about Mike is he may have a facade but on a personal basis he's very loyal to staff," says someone who knows him well.

"Come Christmas and he's always there with cards and gifts.

"Mike is a thinker. He will plan and strategise. And he will have a plan for the weeks and months ahead. Whether it was meetings with prime ministers or secretaries of state, everyone in his team knew what the message was to be before they went in. He professionalised the approach of the Ulster Unionist Party."

In his favour he retakes the reins at a time when no elections are pending for at least three years and the DUP - led by his first cousin once removed - is at its lowest ebb for two decades since becoming the main party of unionism.

It’s not much but for him, it’s a fresh start.