Canada's Carney makes statement by choosing Europe, not US, for first foreign trip
- Published
Two European politicians, dressed symbolically in red and white, sent a message last week to Canada on social media declaring "we've got your back".
Also signalling support was King Charles, who planted a red maple tree on the grounds of Buckingham Palace and wore his Canadian medals during a high-profile visit to a naval warship.
When Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney goes on his first foreign visit to Paris and London on Monday - a day after his 60th birthday - he's hoping to achieve more than symbolic encouragement. He wants solid support from allies.
Not only is Canada being targeted, like Europe, by a raft of swingeing US tariffs, but Donald Trump is making it clear he wants to take over his northern neighbour.
"We appreciate all the symbolic gestures but we need more public backing," a Canadian official told me in a voice which underlined the nervous disbelief shared by most Canadians – Trump is not joking when he calls Canada the United State's "51st state".
The official messaging from Ottawa about Carney's trip, which starts on Monday, underlines his priorities - finance and fortifying security – a natural fit for the economist who headed the Central Bank in Canada and Britain. A statement from his office said his visit is meant "to strengthen two of our closest and longest-standing economic and security partnerships".
His itinerary is full of great symbolism too.
Carney revealed it on Friday during his first speech as prime minister when he hearkened back - with a shiny polish - to the origins of this former colony. He hailed "the wonder of a country built on the bedrock of three peoples: indigenous, French and British".
So there's a third destination on this whistle-stop tour – Iqaluit, the capital of Canada's northernmost territory of Nunavut and homeland of its Inuit people. That stop, the statement emphasised, was to "reaffirm Canada's Arctic security and sovereignty".
Iqaluit, in the northernmost territory of Nunavut, is a focal point for Arctic security
Spectacular Arctic and northern terrain makes up 40% of the land mass of the world's second largest country. Protecting it is a critical Canadian concern in the midst of intensifying rivalry among world powers in the Arctic region, which has drawn in the US, Russia, China and more; it's the cold war of all cold wars.
And there's a personal twist. Carney was born in the small town of Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories, which lies next to Nunavut.
His schedule underlines that he also needs to be a quick study in a new skill - retail politics. A federal election, which has to be held by October, is expected to be called very soon. Carney needs to prove that he can engage with voters, in English and French, as naturally as he does with bankers and finance bosses.
And he needs a proper political mandate. He secured a whopping 86% of the vote when his Liberal Party chose to replace Justin Trudeau, who stepped down as prime minister amid growing calls to resign from his own party after a decade at the top.
But Carney doesn't have a seat in parliament; he still doesn't have the vote of Canadians.
His Liberal party has just experienced a dramatic reversal, a "Trump bump" as well as a Trudeau one. The party which seemed certain to lose, and lose badly, is now tied with its main Conservative rivals in the polls.
Looking like a world leader, and understanding the world of tariffs and trade, is a good look when you are running for high office in the dark shadow of an external threat.
"I think part of the purpose of Mark Carney's trip to Europe is to show that he can talk internationally to other like-minded powers at this very important moment," reflects the eminent Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan.
Back home, voters will decide if that is what counts.
Carney is certain to talk Trump tactics, in private, with France's President Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. They've both taken great pains to flatter the US president in public, and press their case behind closed doors.
Many will be watching to see how Trump addresses Mark Carney - he recently referred to Canada's former prime minister as "Governor Trudeau".
Canada's new top talker has been talking tough.
A week ago, when Carney won his party's leadership contest, he invoked Canada's national sport, ice hockey, which has long been locked in rivalry with US teams. "Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves," Carney declared to rousing applause.
"Make no mistake, Canada will win."
But everyone knows this is no game. Carney described this escalating trade war as "the greatest crisis of our lifetime". More than 80% of Canada's exports cross the border to the US.
And while there have been a few reports of Canadians flying the US flag, a recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute underlined that a thumping 91% of Canadians reject becoming the 51st state.
On Friday, in Ottawa's icy cold weather, Carney struck a warmer tone, highlighting how he and Trump share a background in business, including real estate.
"The president is a successful businessperson and dealmaker. We are his largest client in so many industries," he remarked. "Clients expect respect and working together in a proper commercial way."
Carney says he "looks forward" to speaking with President Trump. But the fact it will be a call, not a visit, is a measure of this moment. Traditionally, the first foreign visit of a Canadian leader is to the US - its closest neighbour and most trusted partner.
On Monday, Carney is expected to sit down with King Charles, Canada's head of state. The British monarch recently expressed his "deepest affection" for Canada, and is said to have already penned a private letter to the new prime minister.
In his non-political role, showing love in public may be the limits of the King's power. But even that sends a message to the American president.
Sir Keir has described Canada as "an ally, and a very important ally too". But last week, the head of Britain's Liberal Democrats Ed Davey called on him to show more public support for Canada to oppose the "shocking attacks" on its sovereignty.
This may be a week of that old adage in diplomacy and politics – "to do something and be seen to be doing it".