How Canada's immigration debate soured - and helped seal Trudeau's fate

Immigration has long been a polarising issue in the West but Canada mostly avoided it - until now. With protests and campaign groups springing up in certain quarters, some argue that this - together with housing shortages and rising rents - contributed to Justin Trudeau's resignation. But could Donald Trump's arrival inflame it further?

At first glance, the single bedroom for rent in Brampton, Ontario looks like a bargain. True, there's barely any floor space, but the asking price is only C$550 (£300) a month in a Toronto suburb where the average monthly rent for a one-bedroom flat is C$2,261. Inspect it more closely, however, and this is actually a small bathroom converted into sleeping quarters. A mattress is jammed up next to the sink, the toilet is nearby.

The ad, originally posted on Facebook Marketplace, has generated hundreds of comments online. "Disgusting," wrote one Reddit user. "Hey 20-somethings, you're looking at your future," says another.

But there are other listings like it - one room for rent, also in Brampton, shows a bed squashed near a staircase in what appears to be a laundry area. Another rental in Scarborough, a district in Ontario, offers a double bed in the corner of a kitchen.

While Canada might have a lot of space, there aren't enough homes and in the past three years, rents across the country have increased by almost 20%, according to property consultancy Urbanation.

Justin Trudeau cited 'internal battles' when he resigned as prime minister on 6 January following nine years in office

In all, some 2.4 million Canadian families are crammed into homes that are too small, in urgent need of major repairs or are seriously unaffordable, a government watchdog report released in December has suggested.

This accommodation shortage has come to a head at the same time that inflation is hitting Canadians hard - and these issues have, in turn, moved another issue high up the agenda in the country: immigration.

For the first time a majority of Canadians, who have long been welcoming to newcomers, are questioning how their cities can manage.

Politics in other Western countries has long been wrapped up in polarised debates surrounding immigration but until recently Canada had mostly avoided that issue, perhaps because of its geography. Now, however, there appears to be a profound shift in attitude.

In 2022, 27% of Canadians said there were too many immigrants coming into the country, according to a survey by data and research organisation the Environics Institute for Survey Research. By 2024, that number had increased to 58%.

Campaign groups have sprung up too and there have been marches protesting against immigration in Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary, and elsewhere around the country.

For the first time more than half of Canadians believe immigration to be too high

"I would say it was very much taboo, like no one would really talk about it," explains Peter Kratzar, a software engineer and the founder of Cost of Living Canada, a protest group that was formed in 2024. "[But] things have really unfrozen."

Stories like that of the bathroom for rent in Brampton have fuelled this, he suggests: "People might say, like, this is all anecdotal evidence. But the evidence keeps popping up. You see it over and over again."

"People became concerned about how the immigration system was being managed," adds Keith Neuman, executive director at the Environics Institute for Survey Research. "And we believe it's the first time the public really thought about the management of the system."

• Who might replace Trudeau as Liberal Party leader?

• Why the Trudeau era has come to an end now

• What happens next for Canada?

Once the golden boy of Canadian politics, prime minister Justin Trudeau, resigned on 6 January during a crucial election year, amid this widespread discontent over immigration levels.

His approval levels before his resignation were just 22% - a far cry from the first year of his premiership, when 65% of voters said they approved of him.

Though immigration is not the main reason for his low approval levels nor his resignation - he cited "having to fight internal battles" - he was accused of acting too late when dealing with rising anxiety over inflation and housing that many blamed, in part, on immigration.

"While immigration may not have been the immediate cause of the resignation, it may have been the icing on the cake," says Professor Jonathan Rose, head of the department of political studies at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario.

Under Trudeau's administration, the Canadian government deliberately chose to radically boost the numbers of people coming to the country after the pandemic, believing that boosting quotas for foreign students and temporary workers, in addition to skilled immigrants, would jumpstart the economy.

The population, which was 35 million 10 years ago, now tops 40 million.

Immigration was responsible for the vast majority of that increase - figures from Canada's national statistics agency show that in 2024, more than 90% of population growth came from immigration.

As well as overall migration levels, the number of refugees has risen too. In 2013, there were 10,365 refugee applicants in Canada - by 2023, that number had increased to 143,770.

Voter dissatisfaction with immigration was "more a symptom than a cause" of Trudeau's downfall, argues Prof Rose. "It reflects his perceived inability to read the room in terms of public opinion."

It's unclear who might replace Trudeau from within his own Liberal Party but ahead of the forthcoming election, polls currently favour the Conservative Party, whose leader Pierre Poilievre advocates keeping the number of new arrivals below the number of new homes being built.

Since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, Poilievre "has been speaking much more about immigration", claims Prof Rose - "so much that it has become primed in the minds of voters".

Trump announced plans to employ tariffs unless border security tightens

Certainly Trump's arrival for a second term is set to pour oil on an already inflamed issue in Canada, regardless of who the new prime minister is.

He won the US election in part on a pledge to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants - and since his victory, he has said that he will enlist the military and declare a national emergency to follow through on his promise.

He also announced plans to employ 25% tariffs on Canadian goods unless border security is tightened.

Drones, cameras and policing the border

Canada and the US share the world's longest undefended border. Stretching almost 9,000km (5,592 miles), much of it crosses heavily forested wilderness and is demarcated by "The Slash," a six-metre wide land clearing.

Unlike America's southern border, there are no walls. This has long been a point of pride between Ottawa and Washington - a sign of their close ties.

After Trump first entered office in 2017, the number of asylum claims skyrocketed, with thousands walking across the border to Canada. The number of claims went from just under 24,000 in 2016 to 55,000 a year by 2018, according to the Canadian government. Almost all crossed from New York state into the Canadian province of Quebec.

The 6m-wide clearing called "The Slash" is all that marks out thousands of miles of the Canada-US border

In 2023, Canada and the US agreed to a tightened border deal that stopped most migrants from crossing the land border from one country to another. Under the agreement, migrants that come into contact with the authorities within 14 days of crossing any part of the border into either the US or Canada must return to whichever country they entered first — in order to declare asylum there.

The deal, reworked by Trudeau and Joe Biden, is based on the idea that both the US and Canada are safe countries for asylum seekers.

This time around, Canada's national police force – the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) – says it began preparing a contingency plan for increased migrant crossings at the border well ahead of Trump being sworn in.

This includes a raft of new technology, from drones and night vision goggles, to surveillance cameras hidden in the forest.

Biden and Trudeau: In 2023, the pair agreed to a tightened border deal that stopped most migrants from crossing the land border

"Worst-case scenario would be people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory," RCMP spokesperson Charles Poirier warned in November. "Let's say we had 100 people per day entering across the border, then it's going to be hard because our officers will basically have to cover huge distances in order to arrest everyone."

Now, the national government has committed a further C$1.3bn (£555m) to its border security plan.

'We want our future back!'

Not everyone blames the housing crisis on the recent rise in immigration. It was "30 years in the making" because politicians have failed to build affordable units, argues Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow.

Certainly the country has a long history of welcoming newcomers. "Close to 50% of the population of Canada is first or second generation," explains Mr Neuman. "That means either they came from another country, or one or both of their parents came from another country. In Toronto, Vancouver, that's over 80%."

This makes Canada "a very different place than a place that has a homogeneous population," he argues.

He has been involved in a survey examining attitudes towards newcomers for 40 years. "If you ask Canadians: what's the most important or distinctive thing about Canada, or what makes the country unique? The number one response is 'multiculturalism' or 'diversity'," he says.

Nonetheless, he says the shift in public opinion - and the rise in concerns about immigration - has been "dramatic".

"Now there is not only broader public concern, but much more open discussion," he says. "There are more questions being asked about how is the system working? How come it isn't working?"

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow rejects the suggestion that anti-immigrant sentiment will spread in Canada

At one of the protests in Toronto, a crowd turned out with hand-painted signs, some proclaiming: "We want our future back!" and "End Mass Immigration".

"We do need to put a moratorium on immigration," argues Mr Kratzar, whose group has taken part in some of them. "We need to delay that so wages can catch up on the cost of rents."

Accusations against newcomers are spreading on social media too. Last summer, Natasha White, who describes herself as a resident of Wasaga Beach in Ontario, claimed on TikTok that some newcomers had been digging holes on the beach and defecating in them.

The post generated hundreds of thousands of views and a torrent of anti-foreigner hatred, with many arguing that newcomers should "go home".

Tent cities and full homeless shelters

People I interviewed who work closely with asylum seekers in Canada say that the heightened concerns around the need for more border security is making asylum seekers feel unsettled and afraid.

Abdulla Daoud, executive director at the Refugee Center in Montreal, believes that the vulnerable asylum seekers he works with feel singled out by the focus on migrant numbers since the US election. "They're definitely more anxious," he says. "I think they're coming in and they're feeling, 'Okay, am I going to be welcomed here? Am I in the right place or not?'"

Those hoping to stay in Canada as refugees can't access official immigration settlement services until it has been decided they truly need asylum. This process once took two weeks but it can now take as long as three years.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police began preparing a contingency plan for increased migrant crossings at the border in late 2024

Tent cities to house newly-arrived refugees and food banks with empty shelves have sprung up in Toronto. The city's homeless shelters are often reported to be full. Last winter, two refugee applicants froze to death after sleeping on Toronto's streets.

Toronto mayor Olivia Chow, an immigrant herself having moved to Canada from Hong Kong at age 13, says: "People are seeing that, even with working two jobs or three jobs, they can't have enough money to pay the rent and feed the kids.

"I understand the hardship of having a life that is not affordable, and the fear of being evicted, absolutely, I get it. But to blame that on the immigration system is unfair."

Trudeau: 'We didn't get the balance quite right'

With frustrations growing, Trudeau announced a major change in October: a 20% reduction in immigration targets over three years. "As we emerged from the pandemic, between addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth, we didn't get the balance quite right," he conceded.

He added that he wanted to give all levels of government time to catch up – to accommodate more people. But, given that he has since resigned, is it enough? And does the Trump presidency and the increasing anti-immigrant sentiment on that side of the border risk spilling further into Canada?

Mr Daoud has his own view. "Unfortunately, I think the Trump presidency had its impact on Canadian politics," he says. "I think a lot of politicians are using this as a way to fear-monger."

Others are less convinced that it will have much of an impact. "Canadians are better than that," says Olivia Chow. "We remember that successive waves of refugees helped create Toronto and Canada."

Politicians wading into the debate around population growth ahead of the next election will be conscious of the fact that half of Canadians are first and second-generation immigrants themselves. "If the Conservatives win the next election, we can expect a reduction in immigration," says Prof Jonathan Rose. But he adds that Poilievre will have to walk "a bit of fine line".

Prof Rose says: "Since immigrant-heavy ridings [constituencies] in Toronto and Vancouver will be important to any electoral victory, he can't be seen as anti-immigration, merely recalibrating it to suit economic and housing policy."

And there are a large number of Canadians, including business leaders and academics, who believe that the country must continue to pursue an assertive growth policy to combat Canada's falling birth rate.

"I really have high hopes for Canadians," adds Lisa Lalande of the Century Initiative, which advocates for policies that would see Canada's population increase to 100 million by 2100. "I actually think we will rise above where we are now.

"I think we're just really concerned about affordability [and] cost of living - not about immigrants themselves. We recognise they're too important to our culture."

Top picture credit: Getty Images

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