'Scary' figures show challenge facing social care

Thousands more people are expected to require social care in Gloucestershire in the next 20 years

"Scary" figures show the scale of the challenge facing social services in Gloucestershire, with more older people expected to need care.

County councillors have been told there will be a sharp rise in demand for residential and nursing care over the next 20 years.

At present, there are more than 4,000 people who require care in Gloucestershire, but that is expected to reach 7,000 by 2043.

“The figures are quite dramatic," said Jenny Cooper, head of integrated commissioning for older people services.

Analysis suggests there will be a sharp rise in demand for residential and nursing care over the next 20 years

The number of people requiring community care is also predicted to rise from 2,500 to more than 4,000 over the next 20 years, according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

Analysis presented to the council also predicted the deficit in the number of nurses and care workers will increase from 100 currently to a shortfall of almost 3,000 by 2043.

Speaking at the adult social care and communities scrutiny committee on 23 July, Ms Cooper said: "We have got some really scary figures in terms of the growth of the over 85s population."

The analysis suggested there will be a shortage of nurses and care workers

She added: “That increase in that part of the population shows a massive increase in demand for services.

“I don’t want to paint a picture where we consider all older people are necessarily dependent on social care services.

“Of course they are not, we have a lot of people living until the ends of their lives without any support from us whatsoever but there will be a proportion of people who need support and that number is growing.”

Care bosses have said there is no single solution to alleviate the pressure and it will require a coordinated effort on multiple fronts.