Northern Ireland constituency profile: Belfast East
- Published
East Belfast was always going to be a mouth-watering battle in what is the fourth showdown between Gavin Robinson and Naomi Long.
The DUP man outpolled the Alliance leader in the past three general elections but his winning majority was cut to just over 1,800 votes in 2019.
Now the stakes are even higher as Gavin Robinson is the DUP leader and is defending the party's most marginal seat.
With just two days left until voters go to the polls, here's a closer look at the contest.
Why is this a key constituency ?
Defeat would plunge the DUP into yet another leadership crisis, coming just months after Sir Jeffrey Donaldson quit after being charged with historical sex offences which he is contesting.
But no sooner had Mr Robinson taken charge than his authority was weakened when he admitted the deal he helped negotiate to restore Stormont had been oversold.
How that admission plays with DUP voters will be tested on 4 July.
The stakes are also high for the Alliance leader on her fourth attempt to win back the seat she lost in 2015.
Given the DUP leader is under pressure like never before, another defeat would be hard for her to take.
If not now, then when for Naomi Long?
What is different from 2019 ?
Where do we start ?
Firstly we now have more candidates in the race with the potential for votes to be split.
Back in 2019, only three names appeared on the ballot paper, Carl McClean from the Ulster Unionists was the third.
This time there are seven candidates in East Belfast and while only two have a realistic chance of winning the others can shape the result.
When the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) last fielded a candidate in 2010 the then DUP leader Peter Robinson lost his seat.
Could the current leader face a similar fate if the unionist vote is split again ?
Equally, might the Alliance vote suffer with the Ulster Unionists, Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Green party in the race ?
The backdrop to the election is also very different.
Back in 2019, the DUP was blamed along with Sinn Féin for the lack of a functioning government at Stormont and as result its overall vote dropped.
It also played into the Alliance message of a dysfunctional government which needed to be reformed.
That is a much harder message to sell now with the Assembly up and running.
But perhaps the biggest boost for Alliance in 2019 came from the anti-Brexit bounce when pro-remain voters rolled in behind Ms Long as she tried to oust a sitting Brexit-supporting DUP MP.
Will boundary changes affect East Belfast ?
It is too hard to call.
The constituency has lost the Alliance stronghold of Garnerville which has moved into North Down, while it has gained unionist areas like Cregagh and Merok.
But other places which have moved from South Belfast are more mixed.
One online prediction site has suggested that four DUP wards in 2019 may now switch to Alliance.
But tactical voting will be key in some of the new areas as Alliance will be hoping to convince SDLP and Green voters to ignore their own party candidates and back Ms Long to retake the seat.
But the DUP has played down the significance of the boundary changes, insisting it has gained as many voters as it has lost.
Where will the battle be won and lost?
There are so many unknowns which will dictate the outcome of the election in East Belfast.
For the DUP there are some big questions.
Will there be a hangover from Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's shock departure and will some disillusioned DUP voters opt to stay at home?
Will those who feel betrayed by the deal which the DUP oversold turn their back on Gavin Robinson and vote for the TUV?
For the first time in 14 years they will have that option on the ballot paper.
But are those same voters prepared to abandon the DUP and run the risk of Ms Long becoming their new MP? That will be the acid test.
The challenge for Alliance is protecting its vote in a crowded field and convincing those who now have a wider choice to back the one candidate who can unseat the outgoing DUP MP.
It almost worked back in 2019 when you could argue the conditions were more favourable for Alliance.
This time the party will have to work harder to make the gains it needs.
Expect another close battle.
