Could the Tories lose half their Sussex seats?

Labour and the Liberal Democrats have their eyes on a number of Tory seats

As people across the UK prepare to cast their votes on 4 July, the BBC's Lucinda Adam takes a close look at the Conservative Party's political prospects in Sussex.

As it stands, every constituency in East and West Sussex has been represented by a Conservative MP for the past five years.

Brighton & Hove, having had one Green and two Labour MPs, is an island in a blue wall between the Sussex coastline and the North and South Downs.

But as the Tories defend all 16 parliamentary seats, some predictions have said they could lose eight, or even more of them. That would be a political earthquake.

The town of Worthing, in West Sussex, has elected a Conservative politician at every general election since 1880.

East Worthing and Shoreham - where the MP of 27 years, Tim Loughton, is standing down - is now seen as vulnerable and is being targeted by Labour.

The party has its sights set on Worthing West too, but unseating Sir Peter Bottomley, the longest-serving MP in the House of Commons, will be a significant challenge.

Meanwhile, in the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton constituency, Nick Gibb is one of four long-standing Conservative MPs who is not contesting this election.

Some local Conservatives disagreed with the selection of the candidate to replace him, with the chair of the local association resigning in protest.

That may affect the enthusiasm with which grass-roots campaigners go knocking on doors in the area.

The Conservative MP for Bexhill and Battle, Huw Merriman, announced he would be standing down

In East Sussex, Bexhill and Battle voters were taken by surprise when rail minister Huw Merriman announced he was standing down after nine years.

It is the safest Conservative seat in Sussex, but there have been some questions raised about why the recent MP for Crewe and Nantwich, a seat 250 miles away, has become new Tory candidate there.

Crawley and Hastings are both towns where voters have swung back and forth between Conservative and Labour candidates.

Hastings is seen as a "bellwether" seat, a reliable indicator of who will form the next government, as the local result has reflected the national result for 40 years.

The Conservatives are defending a slim majority of just 4,043 votes there.

The Liberal Democrats have ambitions to unseat Tories in four Sussex seats.

Less than two decades ago, the Conservatives ran every council in Sussex.

Now, they have lost control of every borough and district council.

They hold comfortable majorities on both East and West Sussex county councils but that is based on votes cast in 2021.

Political big-hitters

Chichester and Horsham have long been considered safe Tory seats.

You would have to wind the clock back more than a century to find anyone other than a Conservative in these parliamentary seats.

But the Liberal Democrats have been working hard, even against political big-hitters Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and former minister Jeremy Quin.

Education Secretary Gillian Keegan is the Conservative candidate for Chichester

In Eastbourne, voters have elected a Conservative and Lib Dem MP alternately in the last three general elections.

If they follow that pattern, it is the Lib Dems' turn.

But the Liberal Democrats most likely target is Lewes, the most marginal constituency in Sussex.

Just 2,457 votes separate Conservative Maria Caulfield from her Liberal Democrat challenger.

After a row over rotating leadership, the Lib Dems do not currently sit among the coalition which runs Lewes District Council - the Greens and Labour share leadership despite the Lib Dems being the second largest party.

But you will not find a Conservative councillor there anymore. Last year, the Tories were wiped out, losing all 18 seats they were defending.

The Conservatives can however feel buoyed by their support in mid-Sussex.

There, where a new constituency of East Grinstead and Uckfield has been created, and in neighbouring seats of Mid Sussex, Arundel and South Downs, and Sussex Weald, the party is expected to retain seats.

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