Gareth Lewis: The big turnaround in Wales
- Published
Given what happened five years ago, what a story we have here in Wales.
Labour has won big and the Conservatives have been wiped out.
But beneath that are so many subplots.
Labour’s achievements come despite a significant drop in their share of the vote, and the lowest raw number of votes since the 1930s.
It’s one of the oddities of the first past the post system that you can win by trying to concentrate votes exactly where you need them.
That relative lack of enthusiasm from voters is already causing some concern, jubilant mood notwithstanding.
One of the Labour campaign mantras has been that Wales will benefit from two Labour governments working together.
Voters will want to see that in action. Quickly.
Former first minister Carwyn Jones told us in the small hours that his party needed to hit the ground running.
The drop in share means they’ll need to “look under the bonnet” according to another former FM Mark Drakeford.
Seats at the 2026 Senedd election will be decided on share – under proportional representation – and Labour’s polling for that election isn’t looking great.
- Published5 July
- Published5 July
It’s an open question whether that is down to the unpopularity of some Welsh Labour Government policies such as the 20mph speed limit or the difficulties of the current first minister, Vaughan Gething.
Other parties are waiting to pounce.
Plaid Cymru had a dream night and the Lib Dems took their target seat too.
Reform has emerged as a real contender, coming second in 13 of the 32 seats and pushing Labour incredibly close in Llanelli.
The Conservatives had a shocker – Reform ate into their vote here as across the UK – although they almost held on in Ynys Mon and Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe.
They are now looking to rebuild, although there are already clear suggestions that there will be a very "Welsh" theme to how that’s done here as opposed to what happens in Westminster.
The dynamics in Wales have always been different because we have not one but two governments – both now Labour.
Once their celebrations die down we’ll see how that story will play out, and how its outcome will affect you.
Despite the big win, with a low share and turnout in general low, voters look like they still need some convincing.
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- Published5 July