Analysis: Will Starmer be hit by Gething vote?

Did Vikki Howells really concede that Vaughan Gething will lose this afternoon’s vote of no confidence?

Listening to Vikki Howells on BBC Radio Wales this morning, I searched frantically around my desk for a roll of sticky tape.

My lower jaw needed reattaching.

Was the chair of Labour’s group in the Senedd really conceding that Vaughan Gething would lose this afternoon’s vote of no confidence?

It appears she was.

Ever since the vote was called we had been using the word "unlikely" to describe the chances of a defeat for the FM.

The chances of an Labour MS abstaining seemed slim.

The group is famous for its discipline. And there’s a general election going on - party unity counts.

But there are other factors now at play.

Two MSs are unwell and therefore cannot vote, Labour say.

It is unclear whether that prevents them from voting remotely, as the Senedd operates on a hybrid system.

The Labour attack lines are out early, even before the vote has taken place: the vote is a gimmick, it is non-binding, and crucially the Conservatives would not agree to any requests for "pairing".

That is an agreement between parties that a member of one party will not vote if a member of another cannot be present because of illness or other commitments.

Both Plaid and the Tories have said they will not pair absent votes in the vote of confidence.

Privately the Conservatives are pushing back hard against Ms Howells' claim they knew about the illnesses before the motion was tabled.

That said, the Tories are also leaving the door open the tiniest bit for remote voting taking place after all.

As things stand Vaughan Gething looks set to lose, but as things stand he wouldn’t resign.

Vaughan Gething has been first minister since March

But the pressure on him will be bigger than at any point since the donations row erupted back in the winter.

And with that summer general election looming, how will this all be viewed by Sir Keir Starmer and his team, who seem to be plotting a safety first campaign route to Downing Street?

Could pressure be brought to bear on Mr Gething?

Sir Keir once described the Welsh Labour government as his blueprint, although he declined the chance to repeat that last autumn.

Will a Labour First Minister losing a vote of this magnitude - non-binding or not - be one hurdle too far on Sir Keir’s careful path to power?