Why Ukraine hopes Trump minerals deal will win back US support
As part of ceasefire negotiations, the US and Ukraine have negotiated a deal to jointly exploit the country's natural resources
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Senior Ukrainian and US officials are meeting today in Saudi Arabia to discuss how the war in Ukraine ends.
The US says it's to agree on a "framework" for a ceasefire and eventual peace deal.
For Kyiv, it is also a chance to patch up its relationship with Washington and muscle in on a process it is yet to be involved in.
It will propose an aerial and naval ceasefire in an initial truce, as well as try to revive a critical mineral deal, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "will sign at any time".
The Ukrainian hope is that, with a renewed US buy-in, the pressure would be put back on Russia to compromise too.
"Seventy percent of our critical minerals are still underground," explains Ihor Semko as he gives a tour of the Zavallya quarry - the largest graphite quarry in Europe - of which he is in charge.
In the rural tranquillity of central Ukraine, this man-made canyon is the by-product of 61 years of mining. A lake is flanked by layers of browns: rust, clay and beige, with the gradual excavation of earth.
"We currently have seven million tonnes of graphite ore left, which means 12 more years of work," says Ihor in a direct style you'd almost expect from the director of a graphite factory.
But the heavy steel of the Soviet-era diggers lies dormant for 11 months of the year.
The reason for this is that the plant is losing money as nervous investors pull out with the ongoing war.
It's why Zelensky offered up his country's natural minerals as part of a possible ceasefire deal with the US.
The proposal is thought to be a co-owned cash pot which would receive 50% of the profits from Ukraine's critical minerals, as well as oil and gas. The money would then be invested in the country's recovery.
"If the Americans were to invest in a 50-50 partnership, it would be beneficial," says Ihor. "There would be new jobs, salaries for workers and income for the owners."
"I think if it wasn't profitable for Ukraine, there would be no discussions about any agreements at all."
Relations between the US and Ukraine soured after a testy exchange between President Trump and President Zelensky in the Oval Office
What Ukraine's leader couldn't have predicted was how hostile the US's position would become.
In return for giving the US a slice of its future wealth, Zelensky had wanted security guarantees - military assurances in case Russia breaks a future ceasefire.
But the White House hasn't offered any, and instead has withdrawn vital military support to force a Ukrainian compromise.
It seems to have worked.
US President Donald Trump believes just the presence of American companies digging for critical minerals would put Russia off from invading Ukraine again.
US businesses didn't exactly put Russian President Vladimir Putin off last time, but Zelensky has no choice but to agree, for now.
Graphite is used for products like batteries, solar panels and electric car motors
Graphite at the Zavallya quarry is processed at the sprawling refinery site a short distance from the canyon.
At its height, up to 60,000 tonnes passed through here every month, now it's around 5,000.
It's sorted into different grades before being sold around the world to make products like batteries, solar panels and the motors found in electric cars.
As it is for most of the year, it's an industrial ghost town.
It's why Valerii Kharkovets, a chief engineer, would welcome an investment in any form.
"Security guarantees are unlikely, as this agreement is more economic than military," he says.
"But if foreign companies are involved, those Ukrainian territories might be left alone."
For Ukraine and the US to make a profit in critical minerals, it could take decades. But Kyiv needs to secure more than just an investment in Saudi Arabia.
If, as reports suggest, a minerals agreement isn't enough to win the Trump administration over, a herculean diplomatic effort will be required as well.
Neither Ukraine nor its European friends can afford a repeat of the verbal exchange we saw in the Oval Office.
Additional reporting by Svitlana Libet and Pratiksha Ghildial.
- Published1 day ago
