Is Welsh Labour turning away from Keir Starmer?

Eluned Morgan became first minister after Sir Keir Starmer came to power

Is Welsh Labour facing a turning point as we approach a year to go until the Senedd election?

Feelings behind the scenes that UK Labour does not get the fight that the party in Wales will face at the ballot box are starting to spill over.

Whether they spill over into 'clear red water' - a phrase coined at the start of the century to describe how the Welsh party differentiated itself from its Westminster colleagues - remains to be seen.

The First Minister, Eluned Morgan, told the Senedd on Tuesday that she will be making a speech next week to outline her position "more clearly" on the UK Labour government's welfare reforms – a controversial issue in Wales, where claimant levels are high.

We do not know how far she will go, or whether she will dip her toe into other areas.

She has plenty to choose from, with decisions made at Westminster affecting steel, welfare, rail funding, crown estate and National Insurance all proving controversial and very current issues.

If she was minded to a year to go until an election, which takes place on 7 May 2026, seems as good a time as any for the first minister to deal with Westminster decisions which she worries might cost Welsh voters and cost her votes.

On Wednesday afternoon BBC Wales saw a copy of a letter the FM has sent to the business secretary in Westminster outlining her concerns about the steel industry.

Eluned Morgan is calling on Jonathan Reynolds to "ringfence" a significant amount of a £2.5bn UK government steel fund for Wales.

There are worries that the money will be used to keep the blast furnaces in Scunthorpe – rescued by the UK government – burning instead.

The first minister had faced considerable flak during a debate on steel in the Senedd on Tuesday, under pressure from opposition parties and fielding concerns from her own MSs after Scunthorpe was rescued and Port Talbot's blast furnaces were not.

Tata -the owners of Port Talbot – are investing in a joint venture with the UK government to build a new electric arc furnace there.

The letter can be seen two ways – it makes the case for Wales' share of that funding, but also plays into what might be a narrative of the FM trying to differentiate herself from her colleagues in London, or stand up to them.

Opposition parties are sceptical.

They say it is too little too late and question how you can have a distance when the UK Labour-Welsh Labour relationship has been described as a "partnership in power".

They have also been critical of what they see as a lack of influence that Welsh Labour wields.

Some Labour MSs have already made their feelings clear on welfare reform.

A minister – Jane Hutt – said that she had "strongly" complained about the "adverse impact" of the Westminster decision not to scrap the two-child limit for certain benefits.

The first minister herself has made a veiled objection to comments from her Labour colleague, the Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens, that she had welcomed the reforms.

When Eluned Morgan took over as FM last year a couple of her colleagues suggested to me that she might need a "row" – concocted or otherwise - with UK Labour, to bolster her position.

When she makes her speech next week, will that time have come?

If Morgan does sharpen up her language and criticism of UK Labour's approach, there would still be a risk for her.

If she still does not get what she wants – especially with big decisions looming from the chancellor in the spending review in June – then where does she go from there?