Election battlegrounds data tables

20 June 2024

These tables accompany the article Which battleground seats are Labour targeting?

Labour

Labour's top 125 target seats

Where Labour needs the lowest swing to win

Name	Winner 2019	Swing needed (%)
Burnley	Con	0.1
Leigh and Atherton	Con	0.3
High Peak	Con	0.5
Bangor Aberconwy	Con	0.8
Bury South	Con	0.9
Wolverhampton West	Con	0.9
Bury North	Con	1.2
Bolton North East	Con	1.3
Watford	Con	1.3
Chingford and Woodford Green	Con	1.5
Wycombe	Con	1.6
Birmingham Northfield	Con	1.7
Leeds North West	Con	1.8
Stroud	Con	2
Keighley and Ilkley	Con	2.1
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Con	2.1
Whitehaven and Workington	Con	2.2
Lothian East	SNP	2.2
Gedling	Con	2.2
Walsall and Bloxwich	Con	2.4
Peterborough	Con	2.5
Vale of Glamorgan	Con	2.6
West Bromwich	Con	2.6
Mid Cheshire	Con	2.7
Wakefield and Rothwell	Con	2.7
Ynys Môn	Con	2.7
Derby North	Con	2.7
Bridgend	Con	2.7
Clwyd North	Con	2.8
Lancaster and Wyre	Con	3.1
Hastings and Rye	Con	3.4
Eltham and Chislehurst	Con	3.4
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP	3.4
Lincoln	Con	3.5
Hyndburn	Con	3.5
Broxtowe	Con	3.6
Chipping Barnet	Con	3.6
Northampton North	Con	3.8
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Con	3.9
Hendon	Con	4
Truro and Falmouth	Con	4
Wrexham	Con	4.2
Hull West and Haltemprice	Con	4.4
Blackpool South	Con	4.4
Calder Valley	Con	4.5
Milton Keynes Central	Con	4.7
Southampton Itchen	Con	4.7
Clwyd East	Con	5
Glasgow North East	SNP	5
Darlington	Con	5.4
Redcar	Con	5.5
Ipswich	Con	5.5
Coatbridge and Bellshill	SNP	5.5
Altrincham and Sale West	Con	5.6
Swindon South	Con	5.7
Cities of London and Westminster	Con	5.7
Airdrie and Shotts	SNP	5.7
Bolsover	Con	5.8
Shipley	Con	5.8
Crewe and Nantwich	Con	5.8
Loughborough	Con	5.9
Midlothian	SNP	5.9
Rutherglen	SNP	6
Tipton and Wednesbury	Con	6.1
Rushcliffe	Con	6.2
Norwich North	Con	6.3
Spen Valley	Con	6.4
Glasgow South West	SNP	6.4
Milton Keynes North	Con	6.6
Worcester	Con	6.6
Glasgow North	SNP	6.7
Rother Valley	Con	6.7
Southport	Con	6.8
Ashfield	Con	6.8
Shrewsbury	Con	7
East Worthing and Shoreham	Con	7
Caerfyrddin	Con	7
Penistone and Stocksbridge	Con	7.3
Barrow and Furness	Con	7.4
Ceredigion Preseli	PC	7.5
Colne Valley	Con	7.5
Filton and Bradley Stoke	Con	7.6
Glasgow East	SNP	7.6
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Con	7.8
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Con	7.8
East Thanet	Con	7.9
Corby and East Northamptonshire	Con	8
Leeds South West and Morley	Con	8.2
Hamilton and Clyde Valley	SNP	8.2
Bishop Auckland	Con	8.2
Chelsea and Fulham	Con	8.2
Crawley	Con	8.4
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	SNP	8.4
Harrow East	Con	8.6
South Ribble	Con	8.6
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Con	8.7
Bournemouth East	Con	8.9
Stevenage	Con	9
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	SNP	9.2
Glasgow South	SNP	9.4
Camborne and Redruth	Con	9.5
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	SNP	9.6
Stoke-on-Trent North	Con	9.7
Gloucester	Con	9.7
Finchley and Golders Green	Con	9.7
York Outer	Con	9.8
Rossendale and Darwen	Con	9.9
Wolverhampton North East	Con	9.9
Macclesfield	Con	9.9
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Con	10.1
Monmouthshire	Con	10.2
Glasgow West	SNP	10.3
Scarborough and Whitby	Con	10.3
Dunfermline and Dollar	SNP	10.4
Welwyn Hatfield	Con	10.4
Hitchin	Con	10.4
West Dunbartonshire	SNP	10.6
Bolton West	Con	10.6
Scunthorpe	Con	10.7
Erewash	Con	10.9
Bournemouth West	Con	10.9
Carlisle	Con	11
Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	11
Earley and Woodley	Con	11
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	SNP	11.1

Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte.

Source: BBC research

Labour's top 125 target seats. Where Labour needs the lowest swing to win. Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte..

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrat top 30 target seats

Where the Lib Dems need the lowest swing to win

Name	Winner 2019	Swing needed (%)
Carshalton and Wallington	Con	0.6
North East Fife	SNP	0.7
Wimbledon	Con	0.7
Sheffield Hallam	Lab	0.9
South Cambridgeshire	Con	1.2
Cheltenham	Con	1.2
Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP	1.7
Cheadle	Con	2.1
Eastbourne	Con	2.1
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter	SNP	2.6
Esher and Walton	Con	2.7
Guildford	Con	3
Lewes	Con	3.7
Hazel Grove	Con	4.2
Westmorland and Lonsdale	Con	4.7
St Ives	Con	4.8
Finchley and Golders Green	Con	6
Cities of London and Westminster	Con	6.1
Winchester	Con	7.1
Taunton and Wellington	Con	7.8
Harrogate and Knaresborough	Con	7.9
Cambridge	Lab	8.1
Sutton and Cheam	Con	8.3
Woking	Con	8.6
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Con	8.7
Eastleigh	Con	8.7
Didcot and Wantage	Con	9.2
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Lab	9.3
Dorking and Horley	Con	9.5
Godalming and Ash	Con	9.6

Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte.

Source: BBC research

Liberal Democrat top 30 target seats. Where the Lib Dems need the lowest swing to win. Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte..

Greens, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru

Top target seats for Greens, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru

Name	Winner 2019	Target for	Majority (%)
Barnsley North	Lab	Ref	9
Hartlepool	Lab	Ref	8.8
Barnsley South	Lab	Ref	12.6
Clacton	Con	Ref	56.3
Boston and Skegness	Con	Ref	60.9
Ynys Môn	Con	PC	5.4
Caerfyrddin	Con	PC	8.5
Brighton Pavilion	Grn	Grn	34.4 (already held by Green)
Bristol Central	Lab	Grn	32.5
Waveney Valley	Con	Grn	43.6
North Herefordshire	Con	Grn	47.3

Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte.

Source: BBC research

Top target seats for Greens, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. . Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte..

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland's marginal seats

Constituencies with the smallest majorities

Name	Majority	Winner 2019	Second in 2019
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	510	Sinn Féin	UUP
South Down	1,623	Sinn Féin	SDLP
Belfast East	2,626	DUP	Alliance
North Down	2,641	Alliance	DUP
South Antrim	3,036	DUP	UUP
Belfast North	3,739	Sinn Féin	DUP

Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Nicholas Whyte.

Source: BBC research

Northern Ireland's marginal seats. Constituencies with the smallest majorities. Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Nicholas Whyte..

Seats with the smallest margins

Name	Target for	Held by	Majority	Swing needed (%)
Warrington South	Con	Lab	65	0.1
Coventry North West	Con	Lab	208	0.2
Kensington & Bayswater	Con	Lab	390	0.4
Alyn & Deeside	Con	Lab	411	0.4
Wirral West	Con	Lab	455	0.4
Beckenham & Penge	Con	Lab	631	0.5
Heywood & Middleton North	Con	Lab	680	0.8
Dagenham & Rainham	Con	Lab	706	0.8
Coventry South	Con	Lab	808	0.9
Warwick & Leamington	Con	Lab	1,169	1.1
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine	SNP	Con	843	0.8
Dumfries & Galloway	SNP	Con	1,556	1.5
Aberdeenshire North & Moray East	SNP	Con	2,399	2.6
Edinburgh West	SNP	LD	2,888	2.6
Gordon & Buchan	SNP	Con	3,224	3.4
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Twee	SNP	Con	4,338	4.3
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	SNP	Con	5,148	4.8
Orkney & Shetland	SNP	LD	2,507	5.4
Edinburgh South	SNP	Lab	10,795	10.2
Burnley	Lab	Con	127	0.1
Leigh & Atherton	Lab	Con	293	0.3
High Peak	Lab	Con	590	0.5
Bangor Aberconwy	Lab	Con	749	0.8
Wolverhampton West	Lab	Con	934	0.9
Bury South	Lab	Con	935	0.9
Bury North	Lab	Con	1,282	1.2
Bolton North East	Lab	Con	1,278	1.3
Watford	Lab	Con	1,300	1.3
Chingford & Woodford Green	Lab	Con	1,604	1.5
Carshalton & Wallington	LD	Con	629	0.6
North East Fife	LD	SNP	728	0.7
Wimbledon	LD	Con	839	0.7
Sheffield Hallam	LD	Lab	1,108	0.9
South Cambridgeshire	LD	Con	1,498	1.2
Cheltenham	LD	Con	1,421	1.2
Mid Dunbartonshire	LD	SNP	1,986	1.7
Cheadle	LD	Con	2,336	2.1
Eastbourne	LD	Con	2,168	2.1
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter R	LD	SNP	2,788	2.6

Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte.

Source: BBC research

Seats with the smallest margins. . Notional results in the 2019 general election for new constituency boundaries, based on analysis by Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver and Nicholas Whyte..

Labour

Labour's top 125 target seats

Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrat top 30 target seats

Greens, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru

Top target seats for Greens, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland's marginal seats

Seats with the smallest margins

Seats with the smallest margins

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