Scottish Labour keeps up spirits but election test looms large

Anas Sarwar has led the Scottish Labour Party since February 2021

The UK Labour government is under pressure but at least they have the benefit of time.

In theory, there's almost four years until they have to face a general election but that's a luxury Scottish Labour does not have.

They will contest a Scottish Parliament election in just over seven months and the signs are not looking good.

A year ago Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar thought he had a good shot at emerging from the election as first minister but now the polls suggest he'll be battling it out with Reform UK to secure second place behind the SNP.

Labour's Davy Russell won the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election earlier this year

Sarwar, for what it's worth, is adamant that minds in Scotland will focus on devolved issues as the election looms.

He thinks that the Scottish public will see the vote as a straight choice between him and John Swinney, the SNP leader and current first minister.

There are many in Scottish Labour who subscribe to their leader's optimism.

The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election earlier this year is regularly cited as an example of the party confounding expectations to secure a win.

They believe that they have the foot soldiers and - importantly - the voter data required to run an effective Holyrood election campaign.

The party insists it knows the right doors to knock on, and how to ensure its supporters come out on polling day.

Douglas Alexander succeeded Ian Murray as Scottish Secretary in September

Sarwar seems to be doing a good job of keeping spirits relatively high in the Scottish wing of the party even when the polls look bleak.

There is also a new Scottish Secretary on the scene, Douglas Alexander, who will be heavily involved in overseeing Scottish Labour's Holyrood campaign.

It's probably too early to say how he's performing in the role, but given his previous jobs in the governments of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, he's bringing a lot of experience to the position.

But speaking privately to Scottish Labour figures at the party conference in Liverpool this week, it's clear that the leadership's outward confidence is not universal.

When these insiders bemoan the party's situation, it does all tend to come back to their dissatisfaction with the prime minister's performance.

And there seems to be an expectation that Sir Keir Starmer won't play a particularly prominent role in the Holyrood election campaign.

Sir Keir Starmer is seen by some not to have done enough to impress Scots

One figure I spoke to was fairly downbeat about the party's chances at the upcoming election - and the finger of blame was pointed at the prime minister.

They felt he didn't seem to be securing enough 'wins' in Scotland and more had to be done to "impress" Scots.

And they worried that despite Labour's huge Westminster majority their entire approach to government was being significantly influenced by a handful of Reform MPs.

They wanted to see more boldness from Sir Keir, suggesting he had the political capital in the wake of the general election to make big interventions.

For example, why hadn't more radical steps hadn't been taken to secure the future of the Grangemouth oil refinery, they asked?

There have been some Scottish success stories, they admit, such as the £10bn deal to build Norwegian warships on the Clyde.

But the polls remain a source of discomfort for many, highlighting the uphill battle MSPs will face next May in order to make any sort of inroads.

Manchester mayor Andy Burnham had been suggested as a possible challenger to Sir Keir

So would Scottish Labour politicians be happier with a new figure in 10 Downing Street?

Last week the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, seemed to suggest he would like a go at the Labour leadership.

In recent days he appears to have rowed back and many in Scottish Labour have taken a bit of delight in his climbdown.

"He messed up", one party figure told me, insisting Burnham made his move too soon.

They described the former Labour leadership contender as a "chameleon" who'd held various positions on the political spectrum.

One Labour MSP, Michael Marra, when asked if Burnham would make a better leader than Starmer, even went as far as publicly saying that the Manchester mayor should "shut up".

Most do still seem to think that the party needs to row in behind the prime minister, and that changing leader would be a disastrous move.

And even Scottish Labour figures who aren't political soulmates of Starmer seemed to think he made a good job of his conference speech on Tuesday.

But there have been others in Scottish Labour who, privately, say that they think their prospects would be better under a party led by Burnham.

Burnham isn't an MP though - and therefore can't challenge Starmer - so it's all a bit of a theoretical discussion.

Defied the odds

Given the situation Scottish Labour finds itself in, there is more of an upbeat attitude at the party's conference than you might expect.

Many do seem to share Anas Sarwar's view that things will change as the Holyrood election comes into view.

They insist the public aren't thinking about that poll yet.

They probably have a point - for most voters next May is a long way off.

But, for some others in the party, this is simply wishful thinking.

They believe a great Labour result at the general election last year has been squandered so far, and that elections in May 2026 - including in Scotland - will see the public deliver a withering verdict on their performance so far.

Sarwar insists the party has defied the odds previously under his leadership and they can do so again.

His MSPs will hope he's right but some insiders fear this confidence is misplaced.