Gareth Lewis: New dawn and sleepless nights for Welsh politics

We might end up with a 'kaleidoscope' of political colours after the election, according to BBC Wales political editor Gareth Lewis

Welcome to the new dawn.

Literally, on the one hand, as BBC Radio Wales Breakfast took over the Oriel area of the Senedd on Wednesday to mark a year to go until the next election.

Metaphorically perhaps too, as on current projections Labour's dominance in Cardiff Bay looks under serious threat.

James Williams, the programme's presenter, promised listeners a "kaleidoscope" of political colours on the show, and that is what we might end up with after the election too.

A bigger Senedd – 96 members next time round – has coincided with a splintering of Welsh politics into a picture we have not seen before.

Welsh Labour's potential demise, a Plaid surge, a consistent showing from Reform and the apparent plunge in support for the Conservatives means there is a real contest to become the biggest party.

First Minister Eluned Morgan admitted on the 08:00 BST slot that Welsh Labour had "work to do".

She also said she is meeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London on Thursday to start a discussion of "how to turn things round" after saying she hopes her speech yesterday will give Downing Street a "jolt".

That means in blunt terms – what are you going to give me?

The answer might well come later in the summer with UK government decisions due on infrastructure spending and the chancellor's long-awaited spending review in June.

Although, since writing this article on Wednesday morning, the precise nature of that meeting is now open to question.

But with views over Cardiff Bay in front of her, is Morgan swimming against the tide?

Have many traditional Labour voters already made up their minds and decided they will go elsewhere, or not vote at all?

Eluned Morgan told Radio Wales Breakfast on Wednesday that Labour has "work to do"

Hoping to benefit is Plaid Cymru, buoyed by a poll on Tuesday which gave them the lead, although they risked losing the cycling vote after staging an event perilously close to the edge of one of Cardiff Bay's most popular bike routes.

Their leader Rhun ap Iorwerth told Breakfast one of the biggest "blocks" to change was people "not believing change was possible".

He said voters were feeling "desperately let down" by Labour, but promised to put forward a positive vision of a Plaid alternative.

He admitted there was "no guarantee" that he would get anything more out of Starmer than Morgan, but that he would rock the boat in a way that Morgan would not.

Rhun ap Iorwerth marked one year until the election outside the Senedd on Wednesday

The Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar marked a year to go with a new policy: knocking a penny off the basic rate of income tax, which would cost £299m.

A law back in 2014 gave the Welsh government responsibility for a portion of income tax paid by Welsh taxpayers, and also the power to vary rates, although the law has never been used.

Income tax has not been such a hot political topic here as it has in UK elections, partly because VAT is the bigger burden on Welsh taxpayers.

Any change would give voters a choice… a tax cut means potential cuts to public services to pay for it.

Reform also advocate income tax cuts and are basing that pitch around cutting "waste", with specific plans promised shortly from their group leader on Torfaen council David Thomas.

A lack of specifics does not appear to be doing the party any harm at the moment – polling suggests they are at a consistent low to mid-twenties percent of the vote.

What of the others? Jane Dodds and the Lib Dems could face a wipe-out, or even with a couple of seats, could be deal-makers to help any Labour/Plaid arrangement to the 49-seat majority.

The Greens' Anthony Slaughter said there was "scope" to put up income tax to give more money to the NHS.

The picture might start to become clearer over the next 12 months.

Let battle commence.

It might be a new dawn, but there will also be a lot of sleepless nights.