Can Reform beat Labour in the North East?

Nigel Farage visited County Durham twice in a week ahead of local elections

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage says he is parking his party's tanks on Labour's lawns as he senses an opportunity to win a slew of council seats in the local elections on 1 May.

Perhaps nowhere would be more symbolic of that boast than winning big in County Durham.

It is the home of the annual Miners' Gala, after all, a parade of working-class pride and heritage that Labour would like to think sums up its traditional values.

And it was in a speech in a working men's club in Newton Aycliffe in Durham that Farage made his intention to park his tanks and win over Labour voters clear.

It was his second visit to the county in a week and although he has refused to make predictions on how many councillors he may have after polling day, privately some of his candidates are dreaming of getting the 50 wins needed to take control.

That would be some advance.

The only Reform UK councillors to sit on Durham County Council were four former Conservatives who defected in the dying days of the current council.

Former GB News presenter Darren Grimes is standing for Reform UK

But this could be a perfect scenario for Reform UK to exploit.

Labour is already a wounded beast in County Durham.

At the last county election in 2021, the party failed to get a majority in the council chamber for the first time in a century.

There were signs of a comeback last July when the party won all six parliamentary seats in Sir Keir Starmer's landslide General Election win, but any feel-good factor disappeared rapidly as Labour lost ground in the polls.

Soon it became clear this would be another tough local election year.

'Neglected voters'

But Reform UK also has another target - the coalition of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and independents that has run Durham County Council since 2021.

As well as attacking Labour, Reform's leaflets have accused the administration of waste and failure.

"Durham is broken," according to the Farage rhetoric.

Labour has also been on the attack against the coalition, but Reform UK believes County Durham's traditional loyalties have been shredded.

One of their candidates is former GB News presenter Darren Grimes, who has returned to where he grew up to fight for a council seat.

"You could put a donkey with a red rosette on it at one point and it would win," Grimes said.

"But no-one I know is voting Labour now. They are in really dire straits because they have neglected voters here for much too long.

"What we are hearing is that we are going to do very well and County Hall better be ready because we are going to get the auditors in and make sure every penny is being spent wisely."

Councillors Amanda Hopgood and Richard Bell have led the Durham County Council coalition

But the different groups running the council believe their track record in the last four years shows they can be trusted to remain in charge.

Liberal Democrat Amanda Hopgood has been its leader since 2021, and says the coalition has shown what life after Labour can be like.

"We came in on the back of an unpopular 100 years of Labour control with them not listening to residents," Hopgood said.

"What we've done is come in and delivered what we promised.

"We've seen four years of growth as a county, we've got 8,000 more jobs than four years ago and we've delivered investment here at a level never seen before."

And the council's Conservative deputy leader, Richard Bell, said Reform UK's accusations of waste were nonsense.

"I'm in charge of finance, and although budgets have been very tight over the years, we've looked to make efficiencies, and we've managed to protect frontline services," Bell said.

"So I think Conservative councils, or Conservative-influenced councils, are certainly well run."

The leader of one of the independent groupings that joined the administration said they have also contributed to a successful blend.

Councillor John Shuttleworth said: "When you're an independent person, not tied to any party, you can say your piece and make your own mind up.

"You're not governed by the whip. [The coalition] has worked reasonably well. There have been no fall-outs of any description."

'Time for change'

But Labour has criticised the controlling groups for raising council tax and accused them of failing to invest in the poorest communities.

The party's candidates insist that on the doorstep, the reception is not as hostile as their opponents claim.

Group leader Councillor Carl Marshall said: "I think it's time for change.

"County Durham can look forward with a bit of optimism to what Labour are going to deliver if we are successful.

"That's going to include tackling issues with off-road bikes, anti-social behaviour, working to bring investment back to our high streets and putting the council back where it should be in the community."

Another political party looking to make gains - the Green Party- believes it is insurgents and not previous incumbents who are best placed.

Their only current councillor, Jonathan Elmer, says it is clear voters are looking somewhere other than Labour for change.

"We know when we ask the question on the doorstep that people are choosing Greens and Reform, and Reform not because they believe in their far-right agenda, but because they are protesting about mainstream politics," Elmer said.

"My message is if you elect a Green councillor, that's a sensible protest vote, you're actually getting somebody who's going to work hard week in and week out."

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy (left) recently visited County Durham and Councillor Carl Marshall (middle-right)

So competition in County Durham is fierce.

Apart from Nigel Farage, the county has also had recent campaign visits from Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, Green co-leader Carla Denyer and Labour's Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.

However there is no question that Reform UK is shaking up this race, and has momentum.

The party knows strong gains would add to the sense of trepidation many northern "red wall" Labour MPs are already feeling.

But we have been here before.

UKIP and the Brexit Party both threatened to break the mould in the North, but then faded away.

There is a confidence about Nigel Farage this time, though, because with both Labour and the Conservatives struggling, he is sitting pretty.

But should Reform UK perform as they hope - and actually have to run councils - rhetoric could meet reality.

Nigel Farage has promised Elon Musk-style efficiency measures - Doges (Departments of Government Efficiency) for councils - to slash spending and transform local government finances.

Council tax payers in places like County Durham would no doubt welcome an end to rising bills, but as anyone who has run a local authority knows, a majority of the money is spent on social care, and room for manoeuvre beyond that is strictly limited.

As Labour is finding in government, being the incumbents and facing tough choices is not a recipe for popularity.

But we will have to wait till after polling day to see whether Reform UK will move from insurgency to power in Labour's heartlands.