Five things to watch out for in the Budget for Wales

Chancellor Rachel Reeves with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, on the eve of the Labour government's first Budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present Labour’s first budget for 14 years to MPs in the House of Commons on Wednesday. But what might it mean for Wales? Here are some things to look for.

1. Public services

In a pre-budget speech the Prime Minister pledged to “rebuild” public services and “reject austerity”.

A funding boost for the NHS and education in England is expected, meaning there will be additional cash coming to ministers in Cardiff Bay - it’s up to them to decide how to spend it.

But how far will that sum go when it comes to easing funding pressures?

Welsh government finance secretary Mark Drakeford told BBC Politics Wales he wasn’t expecting a “bumper budget” but the Chancellor would set out “the first steps on a journey” to repair what he described as that “damage” done by 14 years of Conservative rule.

2. Tax rises

To help pay for all this, the UK government says tax rises will be needed. Labour’s election manifesto promised not to increase taxes on “working people” - ruling out rises in VAT, National Insurance (NI) or income tax.

So there’s been a lot of speculation about what might go up.

Cafe owner Kristian Cuffin says NI changes could lead to difficult decisions for small businesses

Small businesses are often described as the backbone of the Welsh economy and many are concerned about moves to increase employer’s NI contributions.

They include Kristian Cuffin, owner of Cuffed in Coffee in Holyhead, who said the change could lead to “tough decisions” for his business including “reducing staff hours, holding off on hiring new staff and cutting back on expansion plans“.

The FSB in Wales, which speaks on behalf of small businesses, is calling on the Treasury to increase the Employment Allowance which allows them to reduce their NI costs.

There’s also speculation that the Chancellor could increase fuel duty.

Plaid Cymru warn this would have a “disproportionate” impact on rural Wales.

"Our part of the world depends very much on the car because of a lack of public transport”, said Ben Lake MP.

3. Winter Fuel Payments

Wales has a larger proportion of older people than elsewhere in the UK (22% are over 65 compared to an average 19%).

So it’s no surprise there’s been a fair bit of disquiet from different quarters over the decision to means test the winter fuel payment.

The leader of the Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies, has said the policy is “unforgivable” and called on Labour to “keep pensioners warm this winter”.

The older people’s commissioner for Wales is also urging a “rethink”.

4. Coal tip safety

There are more than 2,500 disused coal tips in Wales, including 360 deemed highest risk.

Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford has said he has been “in conversations” with the Treasury about funding to make these safe and is “hopeful that we will see a movement in that direction” if not in this Budget then the spring statement.

5. HS2

The UK government has said it would get a grip on the cost of the HS2 rail line, with fears it could reach £66bn

Though the high-speed rail project is entirely in England, Wales received no extra cash from the previous Conservative UK government as a consequence of the scheme.

Since taking power UK labour ministers have also refused to commit to the cash.

Despite that, First Minister Eluned Morgan has insisted it’s an issue Welsh government "haven’t given up on".