Trump is used to shaking off criticism - but the Epstein story is different

Donald Trump has called the Jeffrey Epstein story a "dead issue". But in a week of blockbuster new revelations, Epstein's criminality - and its consequences - continue to haunt many of his former associates.

The so-called birthday book of wishes given to Epstein in 2003, that was publicly released on Monday, has given new ammunition to Trump's critics, and it will also keep his base and the wider public clamouring for more details.

It may not be a proverbial smoking gun – an undeniable link to wrongdoing that destroys careers or supercharges criminal investigations. But it is concrete, troubling evidence of the close relationship the late financier and convicted sex offender had with the rich and powerful.

That alone makes it an explosive and compelling story – one that is capturing the public's attention in ways a typical political story does not.

The so-called birthday book of wishes given to Epstein in 2003 has given new ammunition to Trump's critics

Make no mistake, while there is no suggestion of criminal wrongdoing by Trump, the political consequences of the Epstein saga on the president are very real.

He is vulnerable on this issue. His attempts to deflect or dismiss it have failed.

And he has at times lashed out at his own base for their fixation on the story - an interest he encouraged as recently as last year.

How the birthday book changed the story

While the 2003 book, compiled by Epstein's then-girlfriend and co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell, is full of dozens of personal notes, it is the one purportedly from Trump that has turned this from a tragic story of sex trafficking and exploitation into one of national partisan intrigue.

The details of the note – an imagined dialogue between Trump and Epstein full of innuendo and double-entendres set within the sketched outline of a nude female torso - have been known to the public since the Wall Street Journal reported on them in July.

Trump had initially responded to that coverage with blanket denials, protestations of being the target of a "hoax" and a defamation lawsuit in which his lawyers doubted the note's existence.

The president's supporters contest the authenticity of the note but it is no longer possible to deny its existence

As conservatives rallied to Trump's defence, the president seemed to have eased concerns among his political base which had been divided over the White House's handling of the Epstein files.

Political analysts began to wonder if this would be the latest in the long line of potential scandals and controversies that the president shrugs off.

Trump's strategy had one glaringly obvious risk, however – that the note would become public. An anodyne description of bawdy text and drawings in the pages of a financial newspaper is very different from seeing the actual item, with its depiction of small female breasts and a signature resembling Trump's that is positioned to suggest pubic hair.

The president's advisers and supporters continue to contest the authenticity of the note, but it is no longer possible to deny its existence.

Trump's reputation among supporters is a man who doesn't get caught up in political games and evasions - every recalibrated explanation risks undercutting this

"The president did not write this letter, he did not sign this letter, and that's why the president's external legal team is pursuing litigation against the Wall Street Journal," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday.

But in a book filled with notes and messages to Epstein, Trump seemingly stands alone in denying the authenticity of his supposed contribution.

And Leavitt was very careful not to call the book itself a hoax.

Every repositioned defence, every recalibrated explanation risks undercutting Trump's reputation among his supporters as a man who doesn't get caught up in typical political games and evasions.

One fragment of a larger mosaic

A greater concern for the White House than the specific revelation of the note, however, is the way in which the birthday book will fuel wider interest in, and attention to, the Epstein case.

The note purportedly from Trump is just a fragment in a larger mosaic of Epstein's life – a picture of a man who had friends and associates in the highest of places, including some of whom found humour in his reputation for sexual exploits.

Less than a week after a group of Epstein victims and their families gathered on the steps of the Capitol to speak of the pain and emotional trauma they suffered, the birthday book provided vivid evidence of the seemingly callous indifference to Epstein's escapades by many in Epstein's circle.

One concern is that the birthday book will fuel renewed wider interest in, and attention to, the Epstein case

One note, which appears to be from a Florida property investor, includes a photograph of Epstein holding a large novelty cheque seemingly from Trump. The accompanying text jokes that Epstein sold a "fully depreciated" woman to Trump for $22,500 – using a financial term for an item whose value has been reduced through use.

Other notes included lewd drawings, nude photographs and, in one instance, images of animals having sex.

There were messages from politicians, lawyers and business leaders. Former President Bill Clinton referenced Epstein's "childlike curiosity" and his desire to "make a difference".

Lord Peter Mandelson, the current UK ambassador to the US, included photographs of tropical locations and referred to Epstein as "my best pal".

Clinton's office has not responded to a BBC request for comment, though he has previously said he was unaware of Epstein's crimes.

An official spokesperson for Lord Mandelson told the BBC that he "has long been clear that he very much regrets ever having been introduced to Epstein".

The Epstein saga, which seemed to be old news at the beginning of this year, is approaching a self-sustaining critical mass

Some Republicans have pointed to the way in which Democrats have focused almost exclusively on Trump as evidence that their claims of outrage are driven by a desire for political advantage.

That could be difficult for those on the left to deny.

Democrats on the House committee investigating the Epstein case, for example, were quick to release the Trump birthday page, which had been provided to them by the Epstein estate.

Expect any other details related to the president to receive a similarly speedy route into public view.

A story bigger than the president

The story has become bigger than the president, however, and the interest in Epstein's story – one of sex, crime and power - will drive attention regardless of the political motivations behind some who are advancing it.

If Trump's critics are sensing opportunity, not all of Trump's allies are helping.

Last week, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson suggested that Trump had cooperated with the original federal investigation into Epstein – a theory that Epstein himself floated during interviews with journalist Michael Wolff in 2016 and 2017.

Johnson, a Republican, later walked back his comments, but not before it prompted another round of questions around what Trump knew about Epstein's illegal behaviour and when he knew it.

There is no evidence of any criminal conduct on Trump's part, but his friendship with Epstein (which ended in 2004) made him a central player in this drama

There is still plenty that the public could learn with the release of more Epstein documents, including witness statements, financial records and evidence gathered in law enforcement searches of Epstein's properties.

Two congressmen, Republican Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Democrat Ro Khanna of California, are currently gathering signatures to force a vote in the House of Representatives to publicly release the remaining Epstein files - a move that the White House is vigorously opposing.

The Epstein saga, which seemed to be old news at the beginning of this year, is approaching a self-sustaining critical mass that will be difficult for anyone, no matter how well-connected or influential, to contain.

And while the president is not the central focus, and there is no evidence of any criminal conduct on his part, his longtime friendship with Epstein (which ended after a falling out in 2004), combined with his position at the pinnacle of American political power, will keep him a central player in this drama for as long as it continues to unfold.

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