Dutch centrist Rob Jetten claims victory in neck-and-neck election race

Rob Jetten, 38, is now tipped to become the youngest prime minister in modern Dutch history

Centrist liberal leader Rob Jetten has claimed victory in Wednesday's nail-biting Dutch election, after vote analysis indicated his party could not be beaten by anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders.

Jetten's D66 party currently has a narrow lead of 15,000 votes over Wilders' Freedom Party, and Dutch news agency ANP says even though the vote count is not complete, Wilders can no longer win.

"We are the biggest party in the Netherlands! Now we'll get to work for all Dutch people," Jetten posted on X.

Wilders said it was the electoral council not a news agency that decided the result: "What arrogance not to wait for that."

Projections from about 99% of the vote put both parties on 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament - but ANP says Jetten's centrists could win a 27th seat.

Jetten, 38, told reporters he was "very proud of this historic result" and now felt a great responsibility to form a stable and ambitious government.

Wilders had led opinion polls going into Wednesday's election, but Rob Jetten succeeded in winning in some of the main Dutch cities including Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht with a positive campaign using a catchphrase of "Yes, we can".

No Dutch election race has ever been so close, and if Jetten does become prime minister he will be the youngest in Dutch history.

Until now Jetten was careful not to declare victory until all votes were in, but ANP said based on figures from postal voters abroad he could now be declared the winner.

Wilders said even if D66 did go on to become the biggest party, his Freedom Party (PVV) would "not let the Netherlands be broken up by Jetten and his people".

Jetten told reporters that his party had "shown to the rest of Europe and the world that it is possible to beat the populist movements if you campaign with a positive message".

The Dutch electoral system is based on proportional representation in one nationwide constituency, so whichever party secures most votes wins most seats.

Jetten's liberals have so far won 16.9% of the vote, while Wilders' Freedom Party is on 16.7%. As results came in on Thursday, the race was so close that the lead flipped between the two parties.

In a sign that he was not ready to concede victory, Wilders dubbed the Dutch news agency "ANP66" and shared unfounded claims from social media of vote-rigging. One local authority, in Zaanstad outside Amsterdam, rejected the allegation as "fabricated".

Although the D66 leader's path to forming a coalition is not straightforward, Jetten has said he wants to make a quick start.

Jetten said after the vote that never before had a party won a Dutch election with fewer than 30 seats.

He will need the support of at least three other parties to gather the 76 seats needed to form a coalition. The most obvious candidates would be the conservative-liberal VVD, the left-wing Labour (PvdA)-GreenLeft alliance and the Christian Democrats, but it could take months if that is to happen.

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has so far ruled out working with the left, but Jetten said he favoured a broad-based government from the centre of Dutch politics.

The weekend would be a good chance for all the parties to reflect, before a "scout" is given the task next Tuesday of sounding them out.

Jetten said he wanted to construct a coalition that represented best the millions of voters who had backed other parties to tackle the main issues, including the housing shortage and asylum and migration.

His path to victory has stunned observers. Less than two years ago he led D66 - a party formed by democratic reformers in 1966 - to fifth place and just nine seats.

Only a few weeks ago they were still languishing in the opinion polls, but gradually improved as Jetten put in several polished performances in TV debates and even competed in the final of a TV quiz show 11 days before the election.

Outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof predicted on Friday that Jetten's task of forming a coalition would prove complicated. "I reckon I'll still be prime minister at Christmas - I'd be surprised if it happened [by then]".

Schoof, a former chief of Dutch intelligence, was picked for the top job by Geert Wilders, who abandoned his bid to lead the country last year because his prospective coalition partners would not support having a far-right prime minister.

Wilders won the last election in November 2023, and a government was only formed in July 2024. Eleven months later, he brought his own government down, in a row with his coalition partners over asylum and migration policy.