The huge risks facing Starmer at Trump meeting

When Sir Keir Starmer visits the White House next Thursday, he will be treading a fine diplomatic line.

He will want to maintain his support for President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine's government. But he will also want to gain the ear of President Donald Trump over the talks he has begun with Russia to end the war.

All this while keeping out of the venomous verbal crossfire between Washington and Kyiv.

That will be no easy task.

Transatlantic relations are in pieces. The US president has upended America's longstanding support for Ukraine and sidelined Europe in the process.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth says European security is no longer a US priority. Vice-President JD Vance attacks the very nature of European democracy.

It is into this cauldron of ideological enmity that Sir Keir will seek a hearing when he meets the president and his team at the White House.

So what can and should the prime minister do?

Diplomats say he has one advantage over European allies, namely his permanence. Trump, they say, knows Sir Keir is one of the few European leaders who will stay in power throughout his presidency. Trump, it is said, likes the fact the prime minister has a healthy parliamentary majority.

"I get along with him well," Trump told the BBC a few weeks ago. "I like him a lot. He's liberal, which is a bit different from me, but I think he's a very good person and I think he's done a very good job thus far."

But warm words and familiarity do not pay for lunch inside the Washington beltway.

What could Sir Keir offer the famously transactional president? He has already made a downpayment by offering to deploy British boots on the ground in Ukraine as part of a post-war reassurance force.

This angered some European leaders who thought it premature and divisive. It also risked Europe getting excluded from discussions about more fundamental issues such as Ukraine's territory and sovereignty. But the troops offer may gain Sir Keir some diplomatic brownie points in the West Wing.

The other thing Sir Keir could offer Trump is the strongest possible language he can muster promising to increase UK defence spending. Starmer is not expected to announce when he will meet his target of spending 2.5% of national income on defence. But he may talk up both the UK's commitment and his calls for other European allies to do likewise.

Sir Alex Younger, former chief of MI6, told BBC Two's Newsnight: "We need to demonstrate that we are prepared to play a role, take control of our own environment, recognise that we have got to develop our power and that has got to happen quickly."

But diplomats say the main argument Starmer must make is to convince Trump that a fast deal on Russian terms would be against his own interests. Namely that the terms of any ceasefire - its fairness, its permanence, its safeguards - were as important as any short term cessation of hostilities. In other words, that there is no point in having a triumphant ceasefire agreement which does not survive for long, risking Trump's reputation.

"If I were Starmer, I would say to Trump that this is your chance for your place in history, the man who brought peace and ended this war," Lord Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"But it has to be a fair deal. If it's a bad deal, you are not going to get that praise, you are going to get a load of criticism and that will be your record in the history books."

Key to that would be urging Trump to put pressure on Vladmir Putin by threatening to seize frozen Russian assets, increase support for Ukraine and tighten up sanctions.

Huge risks

But the risks of the prime minister's trip are huge. The famously thin-skinned president could take offence at Sir Keir's outright contradiction of his claim that Zelensky is a dictator. He could be irritated by Sir Keir's insistence that any European reassurance force deployed to Ukraine must have a US "backstop", expected in the form of aircover.

The diplomatic pitfalls of cross words and cancelled press conferences will be troubling the minds of British officials as they prepare for the trip. They will be acutely aware President Emmanuel Macron of France will be in Washington before them on Monday, competing for Mr Trump's ear.

Sir Keir likes to say that in these troubled times, the UK can once again become a bridge between Europe and the US. France may be keen for that role too.

Another potential point of tension will be trade. Team Trump is promising to impose tariffs on UK goods entering the US that match VAT levied on American goods entering the UK. One argument the UK could make is that hitting British and European trade will make it harder for them to spend more on defence. But officials say that would be a hard argument to make to a president who thinks Europe is ripping off the US both economically and militarily.

The greatest risk, however, is that no manner of charm, politics or diplomacy may touch the sides of this new administration, that there is simply no transactional offer that can bridge the vast ideological divide that now exists between Europe and the US. That may be the cold hard lesson the British delegation learns in Washington.

"We are living in a US presidency which is based on great power diplomacy," one official said. "If we can work within that, fine. If not, God help us."

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