Austria's far right eyes unprecedented election win

Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl (centre-left) has set his sights on becoming Austria's next chancellor

Austrians vote on Sunday in a general election that could see the far-right opposition Freedom Party (FPÖ) top the polls for the first time.

Five years ago, the party crashed out of a coalition government with the conservative People’s Party because of a corruption scandal dubbed Ibiza-gate.

But now, led by Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ is within reach of a historic victory. It narrowly leads the ruling conservatives in the opinion polls, and the opposition Social Democrats are in third place.

Even if the Freedom Party manages to come first, no party is expected to win enough seats for an outright majority, and building a coalition is likely to be difficult.

The FPÖ has successfully tapped into concerns about migration, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine and anger over the way the Covid pandemic was handled, and for months has been hovering around 27% in the polls, up to two points ahead of the conservative Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP) or Austrian People's Party, which is predicting a photo finish.

“The chances have never been so great,” one of its campaign videos says. “As Volkskanzler (people's chancellor) Herbert Kickl will do everything to give you back your freedom, your security, your Wohlstand (prosperity) and your peace... Let’s build Fortress Austria!”

It then shows Kickl saying that he wants to be “your servant and your protector”.

Kickl’s use of the term Volkskanzler, which was used to describe Adolf Hitler in the 1930s, has worried some Austrians.

For them it is an uncomfortable reminder of the FPÖ’s origins. It was founded by former Nazis in the 1950s. Protesters at the party's final election rally on Friday night waved banners reading "Nazis out of parliament".

Like other far-right European parties, the FPÖ combines tough rhetoric on immigration and Islam with promises to reduce what it regards as interference from Brussels in national affairs.

But Kickl has also aligned his party closely with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the self-styled champion of "illiberal democracy" and expressed a more conciliatory tone when it comes to Russia.

The Freedom Party leader has called European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen a "warmonger" and opposes sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Political analyst Thomas Hofer says Kickl’s rhetoric has always been “very harsh and divisive”, but he believes election victory would not necessarily clear the way to heading a coalition government.

“Of course it would be a totally new situation in the history of the Second Republic in Austria, because the Freedom Party came close a couple of times, but was never in first place, at least not on the general election level," he told the BBC.

The party stunned European politicians under leader Jörg Haider in 1999, coming second in elections and joined a conservative-led government. When it joined a coalition in 2018, Herbert Kickl was interior minister, until the party became engulfed in corruption revelations.

Now as leader the fiery Kickl has steered his party to what could be its best result yet.

"It would be a kind of shockwave for the other parties, but it doesn't mean if the FPÖ comes in first, that they also will get the position of chancellor. This is by no means clear,” Thomas Hofer said.

The FPÖ leader is widely disliked by other parties in Austria.

The conservative People’s Party, led by Austria’s current chancellor Karl Nehammer, has repeatedly excluded joining a Kickl-led government, although it has not ruled out an alliance with his party.

Karl Nehammer of the conservative People's Party (L) has criticised Herbert Kickl for embracing conspiracy theories

Austria’s President, Alexander Van der Bellen, has also expressed his reluctance to see Kickl lead the country.

Other parties including the Social Democrats and Greens have also said they won’t form a government with the FPÖ.

"No coalition with the far right," the Greens' Climate Action Minister Leonore Gewessler told the BBC.

"We will not work in a coalition with the far right FPÖ, which denies climate change, which only works on dividing our society and spreading fear and conspiracy theories."

Under Karl Nehammer, the conservatives have framed the vote as a choice between the incumbent chancellor or Kickl, seeking to attract centrist voters with slogans like “Vote Stability" and "Vote Centre”.

Nehammer has said it is “impossible to form a government with someone who adores conspiracy theories”.

Thomas Hofer highlights a lack of vision from both the conservatives and Social Democrats: "One big reason why [the FPÖ] could have this comeback is certainly the weakness of the others."

He says forming a coalition government could take months.

Although some 6.3 million Austrians aged 16 or over will be able to vote in Sunday's election, another 1.5 million long-term residents will not have the right, because of Austria’s highly restrictive citizenship laws.

Across the country that means almost one in five is excluded, whereas in Vienna the proportion is as high as one in three.

To highlight the issue, a charity organised an unofficial vote that attracted almost 20,000 people called Pass Egal Wahl – which translates as a passport-doesn't-matter election.

Elisabeth Scherzenlehner, who teaches refugees German, brought her class along to the campaign group's rally in Vienna.

“I think the FPÖ is a really strong negative voice, and I think there will be no mercy if they will come to rule Austria," she said.