Could Tory devolution splits return after election?

The Conservative conference is being held at Manchester Central, a former railway station

The Tories have rattled around this cavernous old railway terminal in Manchester - the conference apparently not the hottest ticket in town.

As a difficult Senedd election looms down the tracks, some Welsh Tories worry that old divisions about the existence of the Welsh Parliament itself could re-open if the party does as badly as the polls suggest.

One source described the debate around abolition of the Senedd as a "schism" and said a heavy defeat could change the party's current pro-devolution stance.

"The idea of getting rid of it is the one thing that the abolitionists in the Conservative Party have that Reform does not," they said.

"If we end up as some kind of rump Senedd party, then adopting that position is something that could bind Welsh Conservatives together."

Reform's leader Nigel Farage has come out in support of devolution, although the party has suggested that the Senedd's future could be up for debate if they win the election and cannot make it "work".

Another Conservative source suggested that "there is the possibility of the abolitionist people coming to the fore if we have a bad night".

Senedd leader Darren Millar has already said that the Welsh Conservatives would scrap the expansion of the Senedd, but has taken a harder line on abolition.

He told BBC Wales back in May that scrapping the Senedd was "for the birds".

Millar accused critics of his pro-devolution stance of "hiding behind pseudonyms", but there is a strong feeling amongst some Tory grassroots members that the Senedd should be abolished.

The fact that the Conservatives could be on the verge of another row with themselves speaks to where they are.

A number of Welsh Tories have admitted this week that the party spent the last two years of power in Westminster "talking about itself to itself".

As Samuel Kurtz – their economy and rural affairs spokesperson put it – the party is still "paying a penance" with voters, although he thinks the polls underestimate Conservative support.

Another Member of the Senedd (MS) conceded that "people are not listening after 14 years in power at Westminster", a period which ended with chaos and in-fighting in the Johnson, short-lived Truss and Sunak eras.

Darren Millar believes you cannot scrap devolution in Wales alone

Two sources have suggested this week that a return of eight MSs in an expanded 96-seat Senedd next May is realistic, just half the number elected to the current 60-seat Parliament in 2021.

There are fears of irrelevance, something that has been stalking the Tories through empty conference corridors.

"It is quite bleak," said one senior figure.

"We are irrelevant. The story is not about us now.

"Lots of people have made up their mind, have made a decision and are not going to shift from Reform.

"The question now is how good Reform will be at getting them out to vote."

The same figure suggested that Kemi Badenoch's longer-term approach of setting out "thought-through" policies could win voters back, especially if Labour and Reform "get messy, start going for each other and leave a place for thoughtfulness".

Mixing the railway metaphors, one activist told me that "the ship had sailed" on any prospect of turning round dismal polling ahead of May's election.

Both Badenoch and Senedd leader Darren Millar have started to set out their policies.

In Wales that includes knocking a penny off income tax, declaring an emergency in the NHS and ending the Welsh government's Nation of Sanctuary scheme, which helps refugees and asylum seekers.

But under the relentless gaze of the old station clock the Conservatives know that time is against them, and that not many people appear to be listening.