Scotland's climate target unreachable says watchdog

Grangemouth is one of Scotland's most CO2 emitting sites

Scotland's flagship 2030 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now out of reach, the government's independent advisers have warned.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) said the measures that would be needed to achieve the target by the end of the decade were "beyond what is credible".

It accused ministers on "failing" on ambitious goals and urged them to focus instead on hitting the target "at the earliest possible date".

The Scottish government said the target was always challenging and that it was decarbonising faster than the UK average.

Electric vehicle charging provision is on track but reliability needs to improve

Scotland has missed eight of the past 12 annual targets for cutting planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

The latest figures - for 2021 - show emissions were 49.2% lower than the baseline year of 1990. The target for 2030 is 75%.

Chris Stark, chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, said the target was "too stretching" and there was no plan in place to get anywhere close to hitting it.

"That is a failure of the Scottish government to bring to the Scottish people, and the Scottish Parliament, a climate change plan that is fit for purpose," he said.

Mr Stark added: "This is the first time, anywhere in the UK, that we've said there's a target that can't be met.

"It's a shame we have to give that message to the Scottish government but what's behind it is a lack of progress all round."

Scotland's emissions reduction target for 2030 is tougher than for the UK as a whole.

The Scottish Parliament legislated to cut greenhouse gases by 75% compared with the UK's target of 68% by the same date.

'Significantly off track'

The independent committee - which advises the UK and devolved governments on climate change - has repeatedly warned that the 2030 interim target was at risk.

It previously accused the Scottish government of losing its lead over the rest of the UK on tackling the issue.

Scientists have warned that this is a crucial decade for keeping global warming below 1.5C, a goal world leaders agreed to in 2015.

Mr Stark praised Scotland for its success in decarbonising electricity production .

"The renewables shift we have seen in Scotland is genuinely remarkable," he said.

However, he said decarbonising Scottish buildings and the transport system was not on track.

He said emissions from Scottish buildings needed to be cut by 70% this decade to meet the target.

And the transport sector would need to halve emissions by 2030, he said.

"It is no good blaming the UK government for not having put policies in place for this," Mr Stark said.

"Most of the challenges now that face the Scottish government and the Scottish Parliament are devolved competencies."

CCC chief executive Chris Stark said it is a target that cannot be met

The committee's assessment said the Scottish government's actions "continue to fall far short" of what is legally required to reach the targets.

It said heat pump installations in Scottish homes were at half the recommended level in 2023, with just 6,000 fitted.

That will need to increase by a factor of 13 - to 80,000 annually - by the end of the decade.

The CCC said there had been no progress in recycling rates over the past 10 years.

New electric car sales in Scotland are lower than for the UK as a whole although public charge point provision is on track.

But the CCC warned that reliability needed to improve at those chargers.

Scottish ministers conceded the 2030 target was ambitious when they announced it. They also said no one “should be in any doubt” that they would use “every policy lever” to try and achieve it.

But, in recent months alone, plans to phase out gas boilers have been pushed back. As has the deposit return recycling scheme. The budget for woodland creation was cut by 41% in December’s budget.

The Scottish Government points the finger of blame for much of this towards UK Government intransigence and a lack of funding.

But ambitious targets become somewhat meaningless if they’re not achieved. And this isn’t an isolated example.

In Scotland’s NHS the Treatment Time Guarantee states that all eligible patients must start to receive treatment within 12 weeks.

It’s nowhere close to being achieved. And it’s been that way for years. Like this 2030 climate target, the treatment guarantee is legally binding.

But there don’t seem to be any consequences when these legally binding targets are missed.

Friends of the Earth Scotland said "the chickens have come home to roost" since ministers had failed to introduce policies to tackle climate change.

Oxfam Scotland described it as a betrayal to both future generations and communities in poorer countries already facing the "catastrophic consequences of climate change".

Net Zero Secretary Mairi McAllan responded: "The Climate Change Committee have always been clear that meeting the legislated 2030 target – agreed by parliament on a cross party basis - will be extremely challenging, and may not be feasible.

"We remain fully committed to meeting our target of net zero emissions by 2045."

Ms McAllan told the BBC's Good Morning Scotland programme that the SNP and its Green partners in government were "utterly committed" to tackling climate change, "but we will always need to do more".

She added: "No government in the world is doing enough until we meet net zero but we are taking action across our economy and society.

"Scotland is halfway to net zero and I am confident we’ll meet the 2045 target.

"We will keep an eye on that long-term plan."

The Scottish Conservatives described the Climate Change Committee report as "an abject humiliation for the SNP-Green government".

The party's net zero spokesman Douglas Lumsden said: “Mairi McAllan’s bizarre defence that their report was merely a ‘rearticulation of the advice’ that the Climate Change Committee gave when the target was set in 2019 is an admission that the SNP knew it was unachievable, and set it simply in pursuit of positive headlines.

“The SNP-Greens talk a good game on climate change but their lack of action has been brutally exposed.

“It’s safe to assume that not even Mairi McAllan will now be repeating her laughable claim that foreign governments have approached the Scottish government for advice on tackling climate change.”