Jersey could need 150k population by 2040 - report

The population was found to be lower than expected in the last census

A government report on the “serious demographic challenges” facing Jersey has found a population of 150,000 could be required by 2040 to maintain current living standards.

The document from the Council of Ministers used "indicative modelling" to project population needs in the absence of economic growth.

According to a census, 103,267 people were living in Jersey on 21 March 2021 - a smaller number than officials had expected.

The government has determined that “sustained economic growth” will ensure living standards can be maintained with a smaller population.

It said there were two distinct options to maintain living standards and ensure public services.

Jersey’s government said it could allow the 'working age’ population to continue to rise in line with the increase in people aged over 65, by encouraging inward net migration or it could seek to increase productivity in existing sectors and develop new, highly productive sectors to deliver at least the same economic output with fewer workers.

Chief Minister Deputy Kristina Moore said: “The Council of Ministers believes that we need to address our demographic challenges with positive and realistic solutions.

“This requires long-term thinking, rather than making short-term commitments.

“We need to provide a healthy, supportive and sustainable environment and economy to enable all those who wish to contribute to island life to do so to the best of their abilities.

“This will include a well-planned economic programme that gets us ahead of the curve on the challenges of an ageing population profile.

“More than that, we want to improve standards of living for all by providing a vibrant and inclusive community which promotes equity, supports existing Islanders in maintaining their future in Jersey, and welcomes and integrates the new Islanders that are vital to our ongoing prosperity.”

This is the first time the current Council of Ministers has published a report explaining its policies on population and annual updates will follow as a result of a 2022 States Assembly decision.

It is also the first significant government document on population to be compiled since the results of the 2021 census were made public.

Jersey has an ageing population and a falling birth rate.

Between 2011 and 2021, the number of people of working age (16-64) increased by 1% and the number of people aged over 65 increased by 29%.

An Economic Strategy is due to be published in September and will set out more details of the ministers’ plans.