Hezbollah pager explosions highlight shadow war

Fuad Shukr's body had been found in the rubble of a building that was hit in August

If we assume, as virtually all observers do, that Israel was behind Tuesday's astonishing mass pager attack on the ranks of Hezbollah, what does it tell us about what Israel is thinking?

In the absence of any official Israeli comment, a certain amount of reading between the lines is needed.

One former Israeli intelligence official I contacted explained his reluctance to comment with a saying from the Talmud: “And at this very time the smart ones keep silent.”

Given the astonishingly audacious scope of yesterday’s attack, it seems it was designed to cause massive physical, psychological and technical damage to one of Israel’s most formidable opponents.

But reports from Lebanon suggest that Israel may not have intended to use this doomsday weapon just now.

The “shock and awe” engendered by such an attack was probably being held in reserve for a moment of maximum need: either when Israel was about to launch a major assault on Lebanon or when it felt Hezbollah might be about to act first.

Neither of these appear to be the case, lending credence to reports that Israel triggered the explosive pagers because it believed its plot had been, or was in the process of being uncovered.

Whatever the truth of the matter, the episode comes at a time when Israel is taking action, overt and covert, to address the threat posed by Hezbollah and its reputed arsenal of 150,000 precision-guided missiles and rockets.

Away from the daily air-strikes on Hezbollah targets, each documented for the media by the Israeli military, a murky shadow war is raging.

Ten days ago, Israeli special forces mounted an audacious raid against an Iranian-built military facility in Syria, where it’s believed ballistic missiles were being developed.

Commandos rappelled from helicopters, planted explosives inside the underground facility and removed sensitive information.

Some reports suggested they even captured individuals, possibly Iranian, working there.

Six weeks earlier, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s top military commanders.

Nine people were killed after handheld pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon

A report in the Wall Street Journal said that just before the attack, Shukr received a message asking him to go to his seventh floor apartment, where he was easier to hit.

Hezbollah furiously denied the report, but as yesterday’s dramatic events proved, Hezbollah’s networks – their supply chains and communications – appear to be badly compromised.

The Iranian-backed group is, of course, doing its utmost to fight back, firing rockets across Israel’s northern border and, occasionally, trying its own covert operations.

On Tuesday morning, Israel said it had foiled an attempt to assassinate a former Israeli security official using a remotely-activated explosive device.

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for Tuesday's mass attack. Given the physical mutilation wrought on huge numbers of its members and the militia’s urgent need to identify and deal with this catastrophic security breach, revenge may have to wait – but it is surely bound to come.

Which brings us to a fundamental question: what, if anything, has really changed? Israel’s war with Hezbollah, overt and covert, goes on.

Israel’s newly declared war aim – bringing displaced citizens back to evacuated communities along the northern border – has not been advanced.

Despite a lot of heated speculation here in Israel, the military does not appear to be poised to invade southern Lebanon.

That may eventually happen. Israelis are thoroughly fed up with almost a year of insecurity in the north.

But Israel is still fighting in Gaza - the death of four more soldiers was announced on Tuesday - and the prospect of another major ground operation is not universally welcome.

An opinion poll by Channel 13 News found that 52% of Israelis favoured a “broad scale war in Lebanon,” with 30% against and 18% undecided.

For all Israel’s displays of tactical ingenuity, when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah, it’s hard to see exactly where this simmering conflict is heading next.