Kashmir and Haryana prove India exit polls wrong
Supporters of the National Conference celebrate as the party leads in Jammu and Kashmir
- Published
The northern Indian state of Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir sprang surprises on Tuesday as votes were counted in assembly elections there.
Most exit polls had predicted a hung assembly in Kashmir but an alliance of the main opposition Congress and the National Conference Party (NC) are on course for a landslide in the 90-member house and poised to form a government.
In Haryana, which also has 90 seats, predictions of a Congress landslide were upended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has proved the pollsters wrong.
The BJP-led government appears on course to return for a rare third consecutive term in Haryana.
The polls in Kashmir are significant as these are first assembly elections there in a decade – and also the first since the federal government revoked the region's autonomy and changed the former state into a federally- governed territory in 2019.
Unlike Kashmir - which India and its neighbour Pakistan have fought wars over – Haryana does not often command global headlines.
But the tiny state grabs much attention in India as it is next to the capital, Delhi. Along with Punjab, it is called the bread basket of India for its large wheat and paddy farms, and the city of Gurugram is home to offices of some of the biggest global brands such as Google, Dell and Samsung.
The results are being watched keenly in India as these are the first state assembly polls since the summer parliamentary election. Analysts say Tuesday’s results will set the tone as the country heads into more regional elections, including in the state of Maharashtra and Delhi, over the next few months.
Modi's BJP is set to return for a third term in power in Haryana
So what happened in Haryana?
Perhaps the best description of what transpired in the state has come from political scientist Sandeep Shastri.
“The Congress has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” he told the BBC.
For weeks, political circles had been abuzz that the BJP was facing a huge wave of anti-incumbency and analysts were confidently saying that the party’s government was on its way out.
After most of the post-election exit polls predicted a Congress landslide, many said it was an election for the party to lose.
Shastri blames the Congress defeat on overconfidence and infighting within the party.
“They were confident they would win and became complacent. BJP, on the other hand, worked on issues quietly on the ground and successfully fought anti-incumbency to return to power.”
Both parties, he said, tried to form social coalitions by bringing together different caste groups – the results show the majority chose to support the BJP.
Shastri says differences between two top Congress leaders - Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, who were contenders for the chief minister’s post - did not go down well with the voters.
Tuesday’s count, however, has been mired in controversy with the Congress accusing the Election Commission (EC) of delaying updating numbers on their website.
After party leader Jairam Ramesh submitted a complaint letter to the Election Commission, Selja said her party may still come out on top.
“I am telling you… there is something going on. If all goes well, Congress will form the government in Haryana,” she said.
But with numbers not on their side, that will likely remain a dream.
The EC has denied the allegations.
Analysts say the results will set the tone as the country heads into more regional elections
No-one thought Kashmir was going to be BJP’s
In the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, the Hindu nationalist BJP has little support, but it enjoys tremendous goodwill in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region. And the results reflect that divide. But the Congress-NC alliance has enough seats and is headed to form a government in the state.
The Modi government’s 2019 decision to scrap Article 370 of the constitution, which granted special status to Kashmir, and carve the state into two sent shockwaves around the valley, which elects 47 assembly seats.
At his campaign rallies, Modi had promised to restore the region's “statehood”. But as the results show, that failed to placate angry voters.
The region saw a surprisingly high turnout – but as political analyst Sheikh Showkat Hussain says, they were voting against the BJP and the revocation of the region’s special status.
“The BJP made this election into a sort of referendum on its decision [to revoke Article 370]. However, people voted in favour of the stand taken by the regional parties,” he said.
Noor Mohammad Baba, another political analyst in Kashmir, says the results reveal that the BJP’s "policies weren’t popular” in the region.
“The result is a message to Delhi that they need to mend their policies towards Jammu and Kashmir,” he added.
One surprising outcome of the election has been the poor showing by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by former Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti.
Mufti, who earlier ruled in coalition with the BJP, has managed to win only three seats.
Responding to a query about her party’s poor performance, she said it was the "people's choice".
"Winning or losing is a part of politics. People feel that Congress and National Conference will give them a stable government and keep the BJP at bay. We respect their verdict," she added.
Additional reporting by Auqib Javeed in Srinagar