Is the war starting again in Gaza?

Palestinians walk at the site of an Israeli strike on a residential building, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip (18/03/25)
Image source, Reuters
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Israel carried out air strikes across Gaza after two months of truce

  • Published

A ceasefire which had halted fighting between Israel and Hamas for two months appears to be over following an intense wave of air strikes by Israel on what it said were Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.

The ceasefire laid out a path for permanently ending the war, and had seen the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The war was triggered when Hamas attacked on Israel on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 back to Gaza as captives.

Israel responded with a massive military offensive, which killed more than 48,500 Palestinians, Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry says.

Why has Israel launched air strikes?

Israeli aircraft began attacking what the military said were Hamas targets across Gaza in the early hours of 18 March. It was the most extensive series of air strikes since the ceasefire began on 19 January.

The Israeli military described the action as "pre-emptive strikes... based on Hamas's readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force and re-arm". At the same time, the Israeli prime minister's office said the action was ordered after Hamas's "repeated refusal to release our hostages" and its rejection of new ceasefire proposals by the US and mediators.

Hamas reacted furiously, accusing Israel of having "decided to overturn the ceasefire agreement".

The ceasefire has been under increasing strain for several weeks during which time indirect talks between Israel and Hamas about moving forward had reached an impasse.

Is the ceasefire over?

It has not been declared over, though in practice the attacks by Israel mean the truce is no longer.

Mediators though - the US, Qatar and Egypt - which spent months brokering the ceasefire will almost certainly intensify efforts to salvage the agreement.

Israel, however, has warned its new offensive will "continue as long as necessary, and will expand beyond air strikes" - suggesting plans for renewed military action on the ground.

The Israeli prime minister's office said the attacks that begun on 18 March were being carried out "in order to achieve the objectives of the war". These have previously been declared as:

  • The return of all the hostages

  • The dismantling of Hamas's governing and military capabilities

  • The removal of any future threat from Gaza

It is unclear, though, whether the statement means the military action will continue until such aims have been met, or whether it is part of a strategy to force Hamas to accept new ceasefire demands.

Although there was no fighting when Israel began its large-scale air attacks, both sides had repeatedly accused the other of breaking the ceasefire. It also happened at a time when the first phase of the ceasefire had expired and the second not yet begun.

Israel said it accepted new US plans to keep the ceasefire going, but Hamas said the proposals were unacceptable because it was not what had been agreed upon in the original truce.

What does the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas say?

The ceasefire was announced on 15 January and began four days later, after months of negotiations led by the US, Qatar and Egypt. It is based on a proposal set out by former US President Joe Biden in May 2024.

The deal involves three stages:

Stage one

This officially lasted for 42 days, during which:

  • Hamas released 25 living Israeli hostages and eight dead hostages

  • Israel released about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees from Gaza

  • Israeli forces left populated areas of Gaza

  • Displaced Palestinians returned to their neighbourhoods

  • Hundreds of aid lorries were allowed into Gaza each day

  • Israeli troops remained in Gaza's border areas, including the southern Philadelphi Corridor, and left the Netzarim Corridor, a military zone cutting off the north of Gaza from the south

Stage two

Negotiations on the second stage were meant to begin 16 days after the start of stage one - but this did not happen. Like stage one, stage two is also meant to be completed within 42 days.

According to the ceasefire deal, under stage two:

  • A permanent ceasefire will be established

  • Remaining living hostages in Gaza will be exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners

  • Israeli forces will make a complete withdrawal

Stage three

The final part of the agreement would see:

  • The return of all remaining bodies of dead hostages

  • The reconstruction of Gaza, which is expected to take years

Why hasn't the ceasefire moved forward?

Since 1 March, when stage one expired, the ceasefire has been in limbo.

Stage two has not begun, even though talks were meant to have started weeks ago.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on 2 March that Israel had accepted a plan by US envoy Steve Witkoff "to extend the temporary ceasefire by 50 days" to discuss the second stage.

Netanyahu said that under the plan, half of the remaining hostages would be released straight away, and the remainder released if an agreement was reached.

Hamas said it rejected Israel's attempt to extend the first stage, calling it "a blatant attempt to evade the agreement and avoid entering into negotiations for the second phase".

The US - which has aligned itself more closely with Israel since Donald Trump succeeded Joe Biden - said Hamas was "making a very bad bet that time is on its side. It is not."

How many hostages are still held in Gaza?

Israel says 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, up to 24 of whom are believed to be alive and at least 35 are presumed dead.

The 25 Israeli hostages released under the deal included female Israeli soldiers, male and female Israeli civilians, and two children. Five living Thai hostages were also freed outside of the deal.

The living hostages were released by Hamas in stage-managed events in different locations in Gaza, where they were handed over to the Red Cross.

Released British-Israeli hostage Emily Damari embraces her mother, Mandy (19/01/25)Image source, Reuters
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British-Israeli hostage Emily Damari (right) was among those freed under the ceasefire

The Red Cross then transferred them to Israeli forces inside Gaza, before they were driven across the border into Israel and reunited with their families. The freed hostages were then flown to hospitals for medical checks.

The bodies of four hostages were also handed over in a spectacle condemned by Israel and others. Four other bodies were returned without a similar event.

Who are the Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel?

Around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees from Gaza were released in the first phase of the deal.

Many of those released in the first exchange, and some in the following three exchanges, had never been charged and were detained without trial in Israeli prisons under what is called "administrative detention", a process widely criticised by human rights groups.

Others had been found guilty of serious crimes, including being convicted by Israeli courts of multiple murders. Dozens had been serving life sentences.

The released prisoners have returned to the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, and in some cases, Gaza. Dozens were deported abroad due to the gravity of their crimes.

Israel has insisted that no-one who was involved in the 7 October attacks will be freed.

Rose Khwais, a freed Palestinian prisoner, is kissed by her father (20/01/25)Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

Prisoners have been returned to the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, and some have been deported

The prisoners are among more than 10,000 Palestinians held by Israel (not including detainees from Gaza held by the Israeli military) who have either been convicted, or are suspected of "security" offences.

These range from bombings and other attacks, to belonging to banned armed groups.

More than 3,000 people are reported to be held under administrative detention.

How has aid been delivered to Gaza?

Israel says 4,200 lorries carrying aid have entered Gaza each week since the ceasefire was agreed in mid-January.

Half of the supplies were destined for the north of Gaza, where aid had been hardest to deliver and food security experts had been warning of imminent famine.

But from 2 March, Israel stopped supplies being allowed into the territory.

Arab states and the UN condemned Israel's actions as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and against international law.

Aid agencies have managed to store supplies, which means there is no immediate danger to the civilian population. But the longer the ban lasts, the greater the pressure on making supplies last.

Gaza is home to an estimated 2.1 million Palestinians, almost all of whom had to leave their homes as Israel carried out continuous strikes across the territory and issued mass evacuation orders for large residential areas.

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans have returned home, but in many cases there is nothing to go back to, with whole streets and neighbourhoods standing in ruin.

Some 60% to 70% of buildings are estimated to have been damaged or destroyed.

The process is also fraught with danger, with Israeli and Hamas forces at a tense standoff, risks of unexploded ordnance, and warnings from the Israeli military to civilians to stay clear of military positions.

Rebuilding Gaza will be a monumental task. The UN has estimated it will cost at least $53bn (£41bn; €48.5bn), and it is likely to take decades.

The human cost of the conflict will also be felt for many years to come, with tens of thousands wounded and left with complex psychological damage.