Newspaper headlines: Economy to 'stagnate' and Shell profits 'obscene'

A number of Friday's papers lead on the Bank of England's assessment that the peak of inflation has probably passed and that the recession will be shorter and shallower than feared.

"Don't jump for joy just yet... but slump to end next year" is the headline in The Daily Express. The Sun is equally optimistic, describing the prediction as a "light at the end of the tunnel". The paper says Rishi Sunak has been the game changer because since arriving in Downing Street, he has calmed the markets and helped minimise interest rate rises.

But The Daily Telegraph says the Bank has also predicted that Britain's workforce will be permanently smaller than before Covid, putting the economy on a path of stagnation. The paper says officials cast doubt on the government's ability to encourage hundreds of thousands of people who had taken early retirement back to work.

On its front page, The Financial Times reports that stock markets have risen both in Europe and the US despite warnings from central banks that it is too early to declare a victory against inflation. The paper says some central bank officials in the US have warned that market optimism is out of sync with their own thinking about how long interest rates will have to remain high.

According to The Times, the head of the civil service, Simon Case, was informed of a written bullying complaint against Dominic Raab, months before Rishi Sunak re-appointed him as justice secretary. The paper says an inquiry into Mr Raab's behaviour has been told that a group of mid-ranking civil servants at the Ministry of Justice complained in March last year that he had created what they described as a "perverse culture of fear". The paper says this raises questions about the Prime Minister's claim that he was not aware of any "formal complaint" against Mr Raab, who denies bullying.

The Guardian reports that about 40 Afghan families living in hotels in London after fleeing the Taliban 18 months ago have been told by the Home Office that they must move to Wetherby on the outskirts of Leeds. The paper says some of them will refuse to go because they fear their children, traumatised by war, will suffer again from the upheaval, while other have found jobs in London and think they will be unemployed in Yorkshire.

On its front page, The Daily Telegraph says it has calculated that energy companies had hoarded £9bn of customers' money by the end of last November. The paper says many gas and electricity suppliers had increased customers' direct debit payments, even if they were substantially in credit. The regulator, Ofgem, has defended the companies, saying they had helped people to manage their bills.

"And they're off" is how the Sun responds to the Jockey Club's decision to drop all dress code rules at its 15 race courses in Britain, including Aintree, Epsom and Cheltenham. The new guidelines say people should dress to feel their best. The club said it wanted to make racing more "accessible and inclusive." The Telegraph, though, is worried: a laddish or ladette-ish minority, it warns, will not behave any better for being told they can now wear trainers.

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