Warm weather leads to shock drop in shop sales

Retail sales fell more than expected in September as shoppers held back buying autumn clothing amid unseasonably warm weather, official figures show.

Consumers also struggled with cost of living pressures, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Around the world, September was the warmest on record due to ongoing global warming, and the El Niño weather event.

Sales volumes fell 0.9% in the month, the ONS said, while economists had predicted a 0.2% fall.

Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, said sales "fell notably" in September as the quick pace of price rises put shoppers off, "particularly for sales of non-essential goods".

"It was a poor month for clothing stores as the warm autumnal conditions reduced sales of colder weather gear.

"However, September's unseasonable warmth did help drive up food sales a little," he said.

Mr Fitzner added that fuel sales rebounded from a fall in August.

In the UK, last month was the joint-hottest September on record, according to the Met Office.

One scientist described the warm weather, which in the UK included a heatwave at the start of the month, as "absolutely gobsmackingly bananas".

The weather contributed to a 1.9% fall in trade at non-food stores.

Clothing and department stores both saw a 1.6% decline in the month, as sales of new autumn lines including coats, jackets and knitwear, were hit by the weather.

People also held back from buying expensive items such as jewellery and watches, and also furniture and lighting, due to cost-of-living pressures, the ONS said.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said that with the festive season approaching, "retailers are hopeful that the easing inflation we have seen in recent months will boost consumer confidence".

She added that shops would bring down prices "wherever they can", but this would be limited by the expected hike to business rates in April.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said "every retailer will be fully focused on the festive season".

"The next three months are the most important of the year for the sector, the time when people splash out on gifts for friends and family, so the fact that consumers tightened their belts in September will undoubtedly be cause for concern," she said.

Although inflation has been easing, "everyone is acutely aware that it doesn't mean prices are falling too, and many people might have had chunky pay increases but that doesn't mean wallets are suddenly bulging," she added.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence took a tumble in October due to people "simply not having enough money to make ends meet," said Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, which tracks shopper sentiment.

Meeting the "costs of heating our homes, filling our petrol tanks, coping with surging mortgage and rental rates, a slowing jobs market and now the uncertainties posed by conflict in the Middle East, are all contributing to this growing unease", he said.