Rate of National Insurance for employers likely to risepublished at 10:08 British Summer Time 15 October

10:08 BST 15 October

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent, at Downing Street

The prime minister is adamant that he will not be drawn on Budget speculation in advance of the formal announcement in just over a fortnight.

That is the standard position that governments adopt given these are market-moving measures – and in this particular case the Budget will be the biggest political and economic moment for this government so far.

That being said, it was pretty clear from the prime minister’s interview with Breakfast this morning that the rate of National Insurance for employers is going to rise.

In communication terms, Downing Street knows that a hare is running – they have the option of ruling increasing employer NI out, and by not doing so, they know that people will assume it is going to happen.

A similar dance has taken place on the possibility of Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, altering the fiscal rules – the government’s own rules about how much money it can borrow and in what circumstances.

There will be a row about whether this is consistent with Labour’s manifesto or not. Either side of that argument has a reasonable case. And so there is a question for the government about trust.

But the more important question is what a National Insurance increase for employers would mean for the economy, especially at the same time as the government is trying to make the UK a better environment for business investment.

That's a wrap on the PM's interview on BBC Breakfast, but you can still watch it back on the top of this page by clicking the watch live button.

Keir Starmer was quizzed about Labour's manifesto promises, weight loss jabs, plus his pledge to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this Parliament.

The Labour Party's 2024 manifesto explicitly rules out raising taxes on "working people" including National Insurance and income tax.

In the interview, Starmer does not rule out a National Insurance increase for employers in the Budget.

On the government's examination of whether weight loss injections could get unemployed people back into work, Starmer said they could help reduce pressure on the NHS and boost the economy.

The prime minister is now being interviewed by BBC Breakfast live from outside Downing Street with just 15 days to go until the 30 October Budget.

Keir Starmer is being questioned by our political correspondent Henry Zeffman, and you can follow this as it happens at the top of this page, just click the watch live button.