Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

As Forrest Gump almost said: "Inflation is like a box of chocolates".

For those unfamiliar with the 1990s blockbuster film, starring Tom Hanks, his character completes the line with: "You never know what you're gonna get."

Today, we got an inflation figure for May that was unchanged on the previous month. But there is some interesting detail when you delve into the data.

A jump in the rate of food price inflation - up from 3.4% in April to 4.4% in May - is the most striking. And, within that, chocolate prices rose at a record rate.

The rising cost of essentials like food puts the household budgets of those on lower incomes under particular pressure.

The outlook for prices and, in turn, interest rates, is complicated by international conflict and the impact on the price of oil.

So there's plenty for the Bank of England and the Treasury to chew over as we enter the summer.

We're closing our live coverage now, but you can read more in our news story here. We'll be back tomorrow to cover the latest interest rates decision, hope you can join us again.

Theo Leggett
Business correspondent

At 3.4%, inflation remains well above the Bank of England's 2% target.

The Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold tomorrow, despite the UK economy having contracted by 0.3% in April, creating pressure on the Bank to cut interest rates.

Analysts have warned that a sharp spike in the price of crude oil, prompted by the conflict between Israel and Iran, could have a significant impact on inflation over the coming weeks.

That's something which would increase uncertainty over when the Bank may next choose to cut rates, and by how much.

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% on 8 May.

That was the fourth cut since a year ago, when the rate stood at a historically high 5.25%.

When the Bank sets rates, there is always a balance to be struck between keeping inflation down and not slowing the economy too much by making it more expensive to borrow money.

This all leaves those in charge at the Bank with careful decisions to make.

While markets are still predicting rates will remain at 4.25% when the Bank announces its latest review on Thursday, the chances of a cut at its following meeting in August are rising.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Campaigners are heading to Westminster today - the same day as the inflation figures - to make the case for a rise in universal credit.

Representatives from food banks and other community groups are pressing MPs to increase the amount for low-income recipients as they say it fails to cover basic living costs.

Charities The Trussell Trust and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation are leading the campaign, calling for the basic rate of universal credit to “guarantee our essentials” of food, household bills and travel.

Kate Lott, chief executive of Living Well Bromley, who is attending the event, said: “A 41-year old single woman told me this week that she's stopped eating real food and is relying on one cheap pack of biscuits a day as she's so worried about money.

“We are doing everything we can to help everyone who needs our support but the basic rate of UC is not enough to live on so is driving record numbers of people to food banks like ours.”

She says food banks are also facing rising running costs.

Clodagh Rice
BBC News NI business correspondent

Mum-of-three Jessica Ireland from Londonderry posts her shopping bills on TikTok.

Besides her mortgage, her weekly food shop is her biggest expense.

"At the minute, I would spend about £100-120 a week on food - that's for me, my husband, a-five-year old, a three-year-old and a baby," she tells BBC News NI.

“And it's one thing you can only lower so much because everyone needs to eat and kids need snacks, they need nappies and shampoo. You can only cut that cost so much."

Tommy Lumby
Data journalist

As we've been reporting, the overall rate of inflation may have held steady this month but the pace of price rises for food picked up.

The annual inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic drinks was 4.4% in May, up from 3.4% in April.

This was partly driven by a significant increase in the price of chocolate, as the chart below shows:

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

With food prices rising at 4.4% a year in May, retailers have laid some of the blame for the jump at the door of 11 Downing Street.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) says rising prices were an inevitable consequence of Chancellor Rachel Reeves putting up taxes for businesses in her Budget last Autumn.

"The government must now take action to relieve cost pressures retailers are facing," says Kris Hamer, from the BRC.

"Ensuring no shop pays more under business rates reform would be a meaningful step forward, offering much needed relief to an industry that continues to see prices, job losses and store closures all rising.”

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, John Roberts, founder of white goods retailer AO, said putting taxes on business and employment "is not a growth engine".

Remember, the rising cost of household goods, such as fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, was highlighted by the ONS as a factor in today's inflation data.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride says the inflation rate "remains well above the 2% target [and] is deeply worrying for families".

"Labour's choices to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing are killing growth and stoking inflation - making everyday essentials more expensive,” he says.

"To plug the hole they have created, we now know Rachel Reeves has a secret plan to raise taxes. Make no mistake – more taxes are coming," Stride adds.

While Liberal Democrat MP and Treasury spokeswoman Daisy Cooper says "there's no time for complacency” considering US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are “threatening a new round of price rises".

She says that ministers must stand up against "Trump’s bullying tactics, aimed at weakening our online safety laws, our food standards and our NHS", and adds that the UK should rally "our European and Commonwealth friends in an economic coalition of the willing".

Image source, PA Media

Chancellor Rachel Reeves says "there's more to do" but Labour's "number one mission" is to "put more money in the pockets of working people".

“We took the necessary choices to stabilise the public finances and get inflation under control after the double digit increases we saw under the previous government, but we know there’s more to do," she says.

The chancellor also lists a number of measures announced in last week's spending review - such as a £3 bus fare cap extension and funding for free school meals.

"This government is investing in Britain’s renewal to make working people better off," she adds.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

The last time inflation was this high, prior to April, was in February last year.

The fact it's unchanged in May is a slight surprise to analysts who'd expected it to dip slightly, owing to the impact of the timing of Easter on transport costs.

Remember, the 3.4% inflation rate means that a basket of goods that cost £100 a year ago, costs £103.40 now.

For individuals, the fact that food costs are still a major factor will be a concern as the supermarket shop remains a squeeze for many.

For policymakers at the Bank of England, all these numbers will form part of their thinking as they meet to consider interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing money and the returns on savings.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

More detail on some of those areas putting upward pressure on prices in May - and it's not good for chocoholics.

That's because chocolates and meat products were two of the drivers of rising food prices, according to Richard Heys, acting chief economist at the ONS.

Among furniture and household costs, the cost of fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners also rose in May.

A little earlier, we explained why there has been some confusion over the inflation rate for April.

We are saying inflation remained at 3.4% in May, in contrast to some other media outlets which are reporting the rate eased slightly.

This is because we're using 3.4% for April’s inflation rate rather than the 3.5% used by the ONS.

The ONS said its April figure was incorrect and should have been 3.4%, rather than 3.5%, but said it would not revise its official rate as it only did this in exceptional circumstances.

The statistics body acknowledged on 5 June it had uncovered a mistake and the rate should have been 3.4%.

The error was blamed on incorrect vehicle excise duty numbers from the government.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Inflation was unchanged in May compared with April, but still higher than economists had predicted.

According to the ONS, transport costs slowed. A late Easter pushed up these costs in April, but that fell away again in May.

However, that was offset by an acceleration in the costs of food, furniture and household goods - leaving us back at the 3.4% inflation figure.

Inflation has held at 3.4% in the year to May, remaining the same as in April, according to the Office for National Statistics.

We'll bring you more on the latest release from the ONS shortly.

At 07:00, we'll get the latest inflation figures for the year to May from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

As a reminder, inflation is the increase in the price of something over time.

For example, if a bottle of milk costs £1 but is £1.05 a year later, then annual milk inflation is 5%.

Zanya Omer, owner of Harbour Grind in Whitstable market, says business has been “good” recently, but says that it’s always dependent on the weather.

She says hidden costs, such as card machine fees which cost her about 10p extra per coffee sold, has led to her offering cash customers a small discount.

"It’s hard to compete with other coffee places in Whitstable because there are a lot of them,” she says, adding that her main concern is to sell sustainably-sourced drinks.

She’s noticed people’s budgets are squeezed, with customers not buying as much food from her, and opting to bring packed lunches when they take a day trip to Kent seaside town.

“Most people here are retirees, so they have income. But the young families, you do notice with them, they will price check first, or compare prices along the strip, and then come back.”

For now she wants to keep her prices as they are. “I’d go out of business if I increase my prices.”

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

With the inflation rate likely to stay well above target, policymakers at the Bank of England will be scrutinising the data with interest.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected by analysts to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% when their next decision is announced on Thursday.

But, on top of inflation data, they will also be considering sluggish growth in the UK economy, and wider international tensions and the impact on oil prices.

Tommy Lumby
Data journalist

Prices rose at an average rate of 3.4% in the year to April.

This was a big jump up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March.

The April figure was initially published as 3.5% but the Office for National Statistics later said an error in some tax data it received meant the rate should have been a touch lower.

Even accounting for the revision, that was still the highest rate of increase in over a year, and slightly higher than some economists had predicted.

The rise was partly driven by increases in household bills, which came into effect last month.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

The rate of rising prices - known as inflation - is expected to slow slightly, but pressure remains on household budgets.

Prices rose at a rate of 3.4% in April compared with a year earlier. Analysts expect that pace to slow slightly to 3.3% a year in May.

That’s still a higher rate than we’ve seen for over a year, with the exception of April when a host of rising bills pushed it up.

Remember the target rate of inflation is 2%.

We’ll know for sure by 07:00 today - stay with us for live updates and developments.