Iain Watson
Political correspondent

Image source, UK Parliament

There is no guarantee that Boris Johnson's Conservative critics will oust him.

It would take half the parliamentary party - 180 MPs - to vote for a motion of no confidence in him.

But it takes far fewer - 54 - to trigger that vote and there is a feeling at Westminster that it's a matter of when, not if, that happens.

The assumption by his internal opponents is that it would be easier to win that vote if further evidence for the prosecution emerges - the predicted "carnage" - in the words of one minister - at the May local elections, or the potentially more shocking revelations to come from Sue Gray's full report once the Met police probe has finished.

So some people are withholding their 'no confidence' letters until then.

But the situation is volatile - with unexpected as well as anticipated resignations from No 10 and a chancellor who has distanced himself from some of the PM's more controversial remarks and even included a Partygate barb in an article for the Sun., external

What should concern Downing Street is that the small number of publicly declared rebels come from different wings and different generations of the party.

And some of the 'give him enough rope' collection of ministers and ex ministers know that more co-ordination is needed if the party isn't simply to sleepwalk in to a confidence vote.

But it's not impossible more people follow an MP who tells me he will not publicly declare that he has submitted a no confidence letter.

While he has no particular animus to the PM, he has simply run out of patience and fears delay will just make matters worse.

And a former No 10 insider felt that MPs, if faced with a choice of voting "no confidence" quicker than they had anticipated or keeping Johnson in No 10 for another year, (as the rules state if he wins that vote) then putsch might come to shove.

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Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says he has tested positive for coronavirus.

He is the second Cabinet minister to test positive in the past five days after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss revealed she was isolating with the virus on Monday.

Yesterday Shapps spoke in the House of Commons and visited London Marylebone railway station to record a video and pose for photographs alongside train enthusiast and former politician Michael Portillo.

As we know, Anna Firth is the new Conservative MP for Southend West - a seat that includes Leigh-on-Sea, Westcliff-on-Sea and the Chalkwell area of Southend-on-Sea.

So what do people living in the 67,000-voter constituency make of the by-election result?

Several people mentioned Firth's late predecessor, Tory MP Sir David Amess, according to Charlotte Rose, a BBC senior political journalist reporting from the scene yesterday.

One woman said emotions were "running high" as many constituents had known him and his family.

Maureen Hampshire, who lives in Leigh-on-Sea and was previously a loyal Conservative voter, says she didn't vote in the by-election.

"I couldn't be bothered," the 70-year-old says, adding "I think everybody has had enough of it all. I don't know who to vote for any more".

Andrew Clark, 56, was one of the 75% of residents who also didn't vote in the by-election "because Labour and the Liberal Democrats did not stand" and partly because he was "working late last night".

But he says, he is pleased with the result and hopes Firth can continue Amess's legacy.

Lack of clear successor stands in PM's favourpublished at 12:45 Greenwich Mean Time 4 February 2022

12:45 GMT 4 February 2022

Jessica Parker
BBC political correspondent

Tory MPs have been heading back to their constituencies after another torrid week in Westminster.

And there’s a sense of weariness about all the psychodrama at Number 10.

I hear there are MPs who, while reluctant to put in letters of no confidence themselves, hope enough of their colleagues do to reach the threshold.

What’s holding them back?

One thing is the question of who could come next. There’s some concern Chancellor Rishi Sunak just won’t wow the crowds, while others suggest Liz Truss has already got too big for her boots.

Many may be unhappy with the incumbent prime minister but the lack of a clear successor appears to be aiding Boris Johnson’s cause.

Boris Johnson has not lost control of his Downing Street operation, a spokesman for the PM says.

He said the departures of Dan Rosenfield, Martin Reynolds and Jack Doyle had been "mutual decisions" which had been agreed with the prime minister ahead of Munira Mirza's departure.

He confirmed that the resignation of policy advisor Elena Narozanski had not been planned and said he was "not currently" expecting more departures today.

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson has addressed No 10 staff this morning, following the resignations of five members of his team in the last 24 hours.

His official spokesman says the PM "reflected on the privilege of working" in Downing Street and "thanked those who are leaving for their contribution alongside the whole team for their work".

He also acknowledged that this was a "challenging time".

The PM also quoted from the Disney film The Lion King, saying "change is good".

We'll bring you more on the happenings at Downing Street and the reaction to developments shortly.

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Health Secretary Sajid Javid says Boris Johnson has "started making" the changes in Downing Street culture that he promised earlier this week, following the publication of civil servant Sue Gray's initial report on parties held there during lockdown.

Five Downing Street advisers have resigned in the last 24 hours, with Tory MP Andrew Griffith brought in to oversee government policy.

In her report, published on Monday, Gray criticised "failures of leadership and judgement", after which the prime minister told the House of Commons: "I know what the issue is. I get it and I will fix it."

Javid says the PM "has been really clear in his response" to the criticisms.

He adds that it is "important" that Johnson has "clarified" remarks made in the Commons on Monday, when he falsely accused Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer of failing to prosecute serial sex offender Sir Jimmy Savile while director of public prosecutions.

“I think Keir Starmer, when he was DPP, did a good job and he was respected for it," says Javid. “It's a tough job. He deserves absolutely respect for that.”

Image source, Jessica Taylor/UK Parliament

As a junior policy adviser becomes the fifth member of Boris Johnson's team to quit within 24 hours, the PM is facing unrest from some backbench MPs in his own party.

Three of the departing aides were caught up in the lockdown parties row, which is at the centre of some MPs' concerns over Johnson's premiership.

As we've reported, these gatherings included a "bring your own booze" garden party in May 2020 - the email invite to which was sent by Martin Reynolds, who was one of those to resign on Thursday night.

The Metropolitan Police has launched an investigation into 12 of the parties and a full report by Sue Gray is expected to be published afterwards.

Amid the ongoing allegations, the BBC is aware of 17 Tory MPs who have submitted letters of no confidence in the prime minister - but only nine have publicly confirmed they have taken this step.

It takes 54 MPs to trigger a confidence vote, with 180 then required to ensure the PM's removal.

Downing Street has been reacting to the departure of Munira Mirza, No 10's head of policy, who has worked for Boris Johnson since his days as London mayor.

"We are very sorry Munira has left No 10 and are grateful for her service and contribution to government," a spokesman says.

"[We] will work across government and with MPs as we continue to deliver and expand on our ambitious policy agenda."

Mirza, one of five Downing Street officials to quit in the past 24 hours, is replaced by Tory MP Andrew Griffith.

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Like most advisers, Munira Mirza - the PM's aide who quit Downing Street over comments Boris Johnson made about Sir Keir Starmer - is not usually in the public eye.

But for 14 years she has been at Johnson's side.

Through all the tribulations of his time as London mayor, Brexit campaigner, foreign secretary and prime minister, she has been a source of advice, willing and able to challenge her boss.

Sometimes known as "Boris's brain", Mirza is far from being a lifelong Conservative, having once been a communist activist.

So who is the student radical who became closer to Johnson than the other senior officials who resigned from Downing Street yesterday?

Read our profile of Munira Mirza here.

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While Anna Firth has secured a win for the Conservatives in the Southend West by-election, the contest saw a low turnout of 24% and the seat was not contested by Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens following the fatal stabbing of MP Sir David Amess.

Chris Curtis, head of political polling at Opinium, tells the BBC that despite the victory, the Conservatives are facing “a really bad situation” in the polls.

The situation is being “driven by the latest allegations of parties” in No 10, he says, which have seen Boris Johnson’s approval ratings take a hit.

"Half of those that voted Conservative" in the last election are not confident they'd do so again, Curtis says.

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We have a little bit more on the fifth Downing Street aide who has quit.

Elena Narozanski was an education policy specialist at No 10.

She was a former adviser to Michael Gove and Theresa May, and headed up the New Schools for London programme when Boris Johnson was the capital's mayor.

She's also an amateur boxer in her spare time - so we're guessing she doesn't pull her punches...

Image source, Getty Images

It's a turbulent time for Boris Johnson - and the country.

The Downing Street resignations and the PM's battle to shore up support from some MPs is taking place against a backdrop of rising bills, rising inflation and rising taxes.

Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey says the cost of living crisis will not ease until next year, and admits the UK faces a "difficult period" ahead.

Yesterday, the Bank increased interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%, saying it expects prices to climb faster than pay.

In addition, millions of UK households are set to pay an extra £693 a year on energy bills after the price cap was raised by 54% from April.

In the same month, National Insurance payments are increasing and some MPs have criticised the timing, as people struggle to afford the bare necessities.

So the PM will be focusing on the domestic picture as he reshapes his Downing Street team.

Image source, EPA

Two people aware of the inner workings of the Downing Street operation have spoken to BBC Radio 4's Today programme about the latest upheaval.

Nikki da Costa, the former director of legislative affairs at No 10, worked alongside Munira Mirza and says there must have been "significant discomfort" for her to leave her role.

Da Costa adds there must be "some long-standing issues" in No 10 which are now "starting to come to a head".

Former Downing Street chief of staff Gavin Barwell says he's aware of a number of government ministers who are "deeply, deeply uncomfortable" with the way the prime minister has behaved recently.

He thinks there are many facing the "same dilemma" that faced Mirza before her departure.

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Meanwhile - after a turbulent 24 hours at the heart of government in Downing Street - there has been a parliamentary by-election overnight in Southend, following the fatal stabbing of Tory MP Sir David Amess in October.

The Conservatives have retained the seat of Southend West, with Anna Firth winning 12,792 votes, in a contest that saw a turnout of just 24%.

In her victory speech, Firth paid tribute to Sir David, who had represented the seat for 24 years, describing him as a "truly exceptional MP".

The election was not contested by Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens.

Jason Pilley of the Psychedelic Movement came second with 512 votes. UKIP's Steve Laws was third with 400.

Sunak attracts attention with mild-mannered criticismpublished at 10:18 Greenwich Mean Time 4 February 2022

10:18 GMT 4 February 2022

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Image source, Reuters

Rishi Sunak is a politician who likes to stick to the script - and choose his words carefully.

As the favourite to take over from Boris Johnson, the chancellor knows any criticism of the prime minister is highly significant.

So his decision on Thursday to very publicly distance himself from Johnson made many in Westminster sit up and take notice.

Sunak made it perfectly clear he disagreed with Johnson’s comments about Sir Keir Starmer’s time as director of public prosecutions.

The prime minister said earlier this week that Sir Keir had failed to prosecute Jimmy Saville - despite the Labour leader not being involved in that decision. You can read a Reality Check on the comments here.

Asked about the PM’s controversial comments, the chancellor replied: “I wouldn’t have said that.”

There are further comments in the Sun this morning too, making light of the controversy over parties in Downing Street.

“We’ve always been the party of sound money, we’ll always continue to be on my watch, and that’s the only kind of party I’m interested in,” writes Sunak.

The chancellor has always insisted he works well with the PM. But at a time when Johnson is under pressure over his judgement, even mild mannered criticism from Sunak will lead many to question what the chancellor is up to.

Labour's Ed Miliband has called Boris Johnson "a stain on our politics".

Responding to the resignations by Downing Street staff on Thursday, the former Labour leader likened the PM to the captain of a ship "throwing the crew mates overboard to try and save himself".

He told BBC Breakfast that Labour had warned the PM to resign "but he doesn't have the scruples".

Citing the "terrible slur" against Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, which prompted Johnson's head of policy to quit, Miliband called on Tory MPs to listen to what Munira Mirza was saying - and act.

Amid reports of a "meltdown" in Downing Street after a number of Boris Johnson's aides resigned, let's take a look at what it's all about.

Backbench unrest began to grow within the Conservative Party after reports emerged of staff parties at No 10 during Covid lockdowns.

These gatherings included a "bring your own booze" garden party in May 2020.

The prime minister has apologised to MPs for attending this party but said he "believed implicitly" it had been a work event.

The Metropolitan Police has launched an investigation into 12 of the gatherings and a full report by senior civil servant Sue Gray is expected to be published afterwards.

In a debate on Gray's initial findings, external on Monday, Johnson accused Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer of spending "most of his time" as director of public prosecutions (DPP) "prosecuting journalists and failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile", despite having no evidence to back up the claim.

These comments have led to further criticism of the PM, although he has since backed down from the claims - saying the Labour leader "had nothing to do personally with those decisions".

Read more here on the Downing Street parties and what Covid rules were broken.

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

We now have confirmation that a fifth Downing Street adviser resigned on Friday morning.

Elena Narozanski had been a member of the policy unit in No 10 and loyal to head of policy Munira Mirza, who quit yesterday.

Here's a quick recap of who quit Downing Street on Thursday.

The head of policy at No 10, Munira Mirza, worked for Boris Johnson for 14 years, including when he was mayor of London, and was seen as one of his most trusted advisers.

Jack Doyle worked as a Daily Mail journalist before joining Downing Street.

He is reported to have attended one of the Christmas gatherings in December 2020, where he thanked staff for their work.

Martin Reynolds is a civil servant and worked as Boris Johnson's principal private secretary. In that role, he headed up the PM's private office.

He is responsible for sending an email invitation to staff inviting them to socially distanced drinks in the No 10 garden in May 2020.

Dan Rosenfield joined Number 10 as chief of staff in January 2021, and had worked in the Treasury for former chancellors Alistair Darling and George Osborne.