Sir Patrick Vallance says the Eat Out to Help Out scheme is "highly likely" to have increased Covid deaths in the UK
Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser during the pandemic, tells the Covid inquiry he was not consulted on Rishi Sunak's policy, which was aimed at supporting businesses
Sunak has said in a witness statement that he does not recall any pushback from scientists over the scheme
Earlier the inquiry heard a diary entry by Vallance describing Boris Johnson as a "weak and indecisive" prime minister
Vallance said the comments were made in a "late-night moment of frustration" with government decision making
The inquiry has also heard that Vallance described Johnson as "clearly bamboozled" by Covid science - but that he was not the only Western leader to struggle
Johnson - who will give his own evidence - is also said by Vallance to have been "very sceptical" about long Covid, and briefly suggested the virus should be allowed to "rip" through the population
Vallance has also criticised Matt Hancock - the health secretary at the time - alleging that he said things "too enthusiastically and too early... without having any evidence"
The former chief scientific adviser has also said key policies were not introduced early enough - including lockdown measures
Vallance says it was not "inevitable" at that moment that the pandemic would spread.
He says it is "difficult to know" whether Covid was going to be contained in China and elsewhere.
"Had it been," he says, "then it could have been shut down and it wasn't.
"It became spread much more easily than anyone had anticipated. That's what was not known at the time."
Vallance says that in January 2020 “extremely high” deaths and infections were possible as it looked at that point.
"It hadn't been declared a pandemic at that point [by the WHO]," he says, noting it was not entirely clear how it would affect the UK.
"Not everyone [in the scientific community] was behaving as though this was going to happen," he adds.
Vallance is responding to a question about an email sent on 25 January 2020 from Prof Mark Woolhouse to Neil Ferguson, who had a high-profile role in modelling the potential impact of Covid-19, and Jeremy Farrar. In the email Prof Woolhouse was considering how bad the pandemic could get.
He wrote about the UK potentially seeing a fatality rate of 2%, with half of the population becoming infected. He noted in the email that this was not the worst case scenario, but a prediction.
Prof Neil Ferguson wrote back that he agreed and had spoken to Vallance and Chris Whitty about this.
The lawyer asks Vallance whether he thinks the government's chief scientific adviser should continue to be selected as someone who may - or may not - have a medical background, given the eventuality of another pandemic.
Vallance says he does not think the role is set up primarily to tackle pandemics.
It's set up to provide science advice across government, he says.
He highlights the "climate challenge" as the "great crisis that all governments face for the next many decades" so says the role could be just as appropriately filled by a climate expert.
The chief scientific adviser should be chosen based on their "scientific knowledge and breadth" and their "ablity to work across areas", he concludes.
The lawyer divides Vallance's role during the pandemic into three parts:
Vallance agrees the categories are reasonable.
He also tells the inquiry that he set up the vaccines taskforce in order to get the "appropriate skills and focus" on what he saw as a "major issue for the world" - to get vaccines in time and of the right type - in this case, in the UK.
We are hearing a bit more about what the role of the chief scientific adviser in government involves and how broad the role is.
The role, Vallance explains, is to "try and ensure... that areas of policy consideration and thinking can be informed by science advice, whether short term or long term."
He explains that his role would involve things like how policy would interact with science in other areas, giving the example of climate change - something he continued to do during the pandemic.
Taking up his role in April 2018, he acknowledges the first year and a half of his job was very different to the job after the pandemic began.
Jim Reed
Senior Health reporter
Image source, Crown CopyrightAs we've been reporting, we're going to hear more about Vallance's diary notes during the hearing today.
Around 25 extracts from Vallance’s private diaries, external have already been read out at the inquiry when other witnesses have been questioned.
Some express concern about the way scientific advice was being treated, accusing officials of “cherry picking” and ministers of using scientists as “human shields”.
Others give a fascinating glimpse into working life in Downing Street.
In extracts from the autumn of 2020, Vallance appears to become increasingly concerned about Boris Johnson’s decision-making.
He criticises the former prime minister for “ridiculous flip-flopping” and being “all over the place” in meetings.
"The right wing press are culpable and we have a weak, indecisive PM," he writes on 28 October 2020.
Boris Johnson will have a chance to respond to these comments when he gives evidence next month.
Vallance continues to tell the inquiry about his diary entries: "Some of it I look back and think 'well that seems like a sensible series of reflections over that period'."
Some notes may contradict each other, Vallance adds.
The lawyer turns to another set of documents Vallance has provided - the "evening notes", or diary entries - produced in response to a disclosure request made by the inquiry.
And although they contained "sensitive, personal" entries, Vallance has provided them in full.
Vallance says he wrote the entries at the end of each day, as a way to get those thoughts out of the way so he could concentrate on the following day.
They were "private" and "instant reflections from the day", he says, and he never intended on doing anything else with them.
After clarifying a few biographical details, Vallance is asked now about a document published in December 2022 reflecting on the pandemic.
He explains the document is in part to look at what happened during the pandemic, and to look forward.
Vallance says the document looks at “what had happened… from a technical perspective”.
He says it is not possible to "predict" what a future pandemic can look like, but the document contains "some generic lessons" for future advisers.
Image source, Crown CopyrightAndrew O'Connor KC, the lawyer asking the questions this morning, starts by saying that Vallance has prepared a 200-page witness statement that will be addressed in this hearing. Vallance has also prepared a shorter statement.
He then goes over Vallance's career and his path to being appointed the government's chief scientific adviser.
Image source, Crown CopyrightSir Patrick Vallance, one of the key players in the UK's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, has taken his seat at the Covid-19 inquiry.
Over the coming hours we will hear him questioned on a wide range of topics, including extracts from his diary of events which he voluntarily submitted to the committee.
Things generally start off slowly, with some procedural matters to get out of the way.
Andrew O'Connor KC is asking the questions.
The inquiry is scheduled to sit until 16:30 this afternoon.
Earlier this morning, two people who held influential positions during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic spoke to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Sir John Bell was responsible for developing the Covid testing regime, and may still appear at the inquiry, and Peter Openshaw served as vice chair of the advisory body to the government on new respiratory viruses (Nervtag).
“I remember feeling quite puzzled really that some advice that came very clearly from the scientific point of view was not being followed rapidly by government action,” said Openshaw.
“It was really baffling to us that rapid action wasn’t being taken. If you have a fire on the stove in the kitchen, you don’t wait until much of the kitchen is alight before you take action.”
“That first six months of the pandemic was pretty chaotic,” said Bell, adding that nobody knew enough about the virus to begin with - something which was especially true for politicians.
“Why would a politician who graduated in classics or PPE understand anything about the virus or the pandemic? It was actually quite a chaotic time trying to get a line on what was the appropriate thing to do, and how to do it.”
Jim Reed
Senior Health reporter
Image source, PA MediaSir Patrick Vallance arriving at the Covid inquiry today
The remit of this second phase of the inquiry is to examine the major political decisions made between January 2020 and February 2022.
Expect Vallance to be asked about the earlier part of the pandemic when the government was following a ‘mitigation’ strategy.
That meant putting in place largely voluntary measures designed to spread out infections over time and build up herd immunity in the population.
The idea was scrapped when it became clear the NHS was about to be overwhelmed, and a national lockdown was imposed.
He’s also likely to be asked about the later period, in autumn 2020, when Covid infections were rising sharply and the government resisted calls from its scientific advisers to impose a short circuit-breaker lockdown in England.
And expect more details to emerge from Vallance’s private diaries, written as a “brain dump” at the end of each day.
Extracts released so far make for uncomfortable reading for the government, with Boris Johnson accused of “ridiculous flip-flopping” and ministers blamed for using scientists as “human shields”.
Image source, PAIn early November we heard from former Home Secretary Priti Patel and former head of the civil service, Mark Sedwill.
Dame Priti Patel told the inquiry that on-the-spot fines of £10,000 for breaching Covid laws on large gatherings were too high and she had pushed back against it at the time.
The penalty was introduced ahead of the August bank holiday in 2020. Priti Patel also said she felt the policing of the 2021 vigil to remember murder victim Sarah Everard was "totally inappropriate".
The Metropolitan Police was criticised for its handling of the unofficial event, which saw hundreds of people gather on Clapham Common, south London, after a planned event was cancelled. The force was later found to have breached the rights of the organisers - and subsequently apologised and paid damages to two women arrested at the event.
Mark Sedwill apologised for suggesting the government should encourage chicken-pox style parties with the aim of infecting people with Covid. He accepted his comment could have come across as both “heartless and thoughtless”.
During the hearing, Sedwill criticised former PM Boris Johnson and said he had made it clear to the then-PM that then-health secretary, Matt Hancock, had to be replaced.
Earlier, the inquiry also heard from Dominic Cummings, the then-PM's most powerful adviser, who described a "dysfunctional" government which had no plans to lock down the country or shield the vulnerable, even as the virus spread across the UK in early 2020.
Jim Reed
Senior Health reporter
At the start of this second phase of the inquiry, we learnt that Vallance had recorded his thoughts most evenings as handwritten notes.
His lawyer said they were written as a “brain dump” at the end of a stressful day to protect his mental health.
They were a “form of release” which helped him “focus on the challenges of the next day rather than dwelling on the events of the past".
Those notes have been handed over in full to the inquiry’s legal team and around 25 short extracts have already been read in open court when other witnesses were being questioned.
Eight media organisations, including the BBC, have argued it’s in the public interest for the entries to be shown in context at the inquiry – as part of the full diary page in which they were written.
Sir Patrick’s legal team has opposed that request arguing it would breach his right to privacy.
Baroness Hallett has said she needed more time to hear “fuller submissions” from both sides before making a final ruling.
Jim Reed
Senior Health reporter
Image source, PA MediaVallance, who will be giving evidence today, was the chief scientific adviser to the UK government from 2018 until he stepped down this year.
Before that he spent years in medical research – first at St George’s hospital in London and then at the drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline.
During the pandemic he often appeared at Covid news conferences alongside the ex-PM Boris Johnson and England’s chief medical officer, Sir Chris Whitty, who will give evidence tomorrow.
He was responsible for chairing the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – or Sage – a committee of scientists, mainly from academia, responsible for advising ministers on Covid.
It was also Sir Patrick’s idea to set up an independent unit, the Vaccine Taskforce, to fund and secure access to promising Covid vaccines very early in the pandemic.
The Covid inquiry, announced by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, covers decision-making during the pandemic by the UK government and in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Johnson had said the government's response would be "under the microscope". It’s a public inquiry, which means it’s established and funded by the government, but is led by an independent chairperson - in this case, Baroness Hallett, who previously led the inquests into the 7 July London bombings.
An inquiry can demand evidence and compel witnesses to attend. No-one is found guilty or innocent, but lessons learned are published. The government is not obliged to accept any recommendations.
Nadia Ragozhina
Live reporter
Image source, PAGood morning and welcome to our live coverage of the UK Covid inquiry.
For the last month or so, the inquiry has been hearing evidence for its second investigation - examining UK decision-making and political governance during the pandemic.
From 10:30 GMT today, we expect to hear from Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s former chief scientific adviser. He is the only witness appearing during today’s hearing.
There will be both text coverage and a stream of today’s proceedings, which you can watch live at the top of the page by pressing the play button.
Stay with us and we’ll bring you all the updates.