The chancellor v the scientists: How Sunak clashed with experts
Jim Reed
Reporting from the inquiry
As chancellor, it was Rishi Sunak’s job to worry about the impact of lockdown and other Covid restrictions on the economy.
The furlough scheme protected the incomes of millions of people working in sectors that could no longer operate. But the bill was jaw-droppingly large: £70bn and that’s before other subsidies were factored in.
At different points, Sunak and the Treasury clashed with the government’s scientific advisers who were, at times, saying stronger restrictions should be considered to contain the virus.
By September 2020, Covid infections were again starting to climb.
The government’s scientific advisers said ministers should consider putting in place a range of measures including a short circuit-breaker lockdown.
But Rishi Sunak's briefing notes, prepared by the Treasury at the time, said that further restrictions could be catastrophic for the economy and a circuit-breaker would make bankruptcies and job losses more likely.
In the end, the government announced the tiers system of local rules, along with other measures including beefed-up guidance to work from home and a 10pm curfew for bars and clubs.
Those did not prove to be enough though and England still entered a second national lockdown on 5 November 2020.
Expect Sunak to be asked about his opposition to the circuit-breaker idea, and whether a faster response might have saved lives and avoided the full lockdown England ultimately ended up in.
.Copyright: .
Eat Out to Help Out (the virus?)
Jim Reed
Reporting from the inquiry
Expect Eat Out to Help Out to form a chunk of the questioning today.
Rishi Sunak’s flagship scheme subsidised midweek meals in pubs and restaurants in August 2020, and was popular with the hospitality industry.
Previous witnesses though, including the former Health Secretary Matt Hancock, have said they were not told about it in advance.
England’s chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty also said he should have been consulted and jokingly referred to the scheme as “Eat Out to Help Out the virus” in conversations with colleagues at the time.
And the government’s current chief scientific adviser, Dame Angela McLean, described Sunak as “Dr Death the Chancellor” in a private WhatsApp exchange in September 2020.
There is little evidence the scheme was directly responsible for driving up infections that summer, although critics say it still sent the wrong message to the public.
In his witness statement, Sunak said that Boris Johnson supported it and he “did not recall” either Whitty or Sir Patrick Vallance expressing any concerns in meetings.
Watch: PM heckled on arrival at Covid inquiry
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heckled on his arrival at the Covid inquiry a little earlier this morning.
Protesters are outside the hearing at Dorland House - although it seems not as many as for last week's appearance by Boris Johnson.
Video content
Video caption: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak heckled on arrival at Covid inquiryPrime Minister Rishi Sunak heckled on arrival at Covid inquiry
Four questions Sunak could face today
Helen Catt
Political correspondent
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Rishi Sunak wasn’t prime minister during the pandemic but, as chancellor, he held one of the most senior jobs in government.
He’s likely to be asked about his Eat Out to Help Out Scheme to boost hospitality, which some of the scientists said they weren’t told about and claimed was "highly likely" to have contributed to deaths.
The inquiry’s already heard an extract from Sunak’s written evidence in which he said he “didn’t recall” any concerns being raised.
He may also face questions about missing WhatsApp messages and a note in Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary, which quotes Dominic Cummings as saying: "[Then Chancellor] Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that's OK".
It’s also thought he’ll be asked about a magazine article, in which he claimed he “wasn’t allowed to talk about” the trade-offs around lockdowns and suggested that "empowering...all these independent people”, such as scientists, was a problem.
Covid inquiry: The key things to know
EPACopyright: EPA
Baroness Hallett arriving for a previous day’s hearingImage caption: Baroness Hallett arriving for a previous day’s hearing
Here's a quick reminder of some of the key things to know about the UK's Covid inquiry:
It’s being chaired by Baroness Hallett - a former Court of Appeal judge who previously led the inquests into the 7 July London bombings in 2005
The names of people giving evidence will be announced for each week - they include key politicians, scientists, unions, health and care organisations, Covid bereavement groups and more
Members of the public are being encouraged to share their stories with the inquiry by filling in this form online
No-one will be found guilty or innocent during this inquiry - this is about going through what happened and learning lessons
Any recommendations made by the inquiry at the end of this process do not have to be adopted by the government
Analysis
Did Eat Out to Help Out spark the second wave? It's not clear
Nick Triggle
Health Correspondent
PA MediaCopyright: PA Media
Rishi Sunak is certain to be asked about the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, which offered discounts in pubs and restaurants in summer 2020.
But the extent to which it caused an uptick in infections in the autumn is unclear.
Work by the University of Warwick suggested it was responsible for between 8% and 17% new cases in the areas where it ran.
But other work by experts at the Resolution Foundation and the University of Oxford has cast doubt on drawing as strong a link.
The South West, for example, had the highest uptake of the scheme, but one of the lowest increases following the introduction of it.
What is more, other countries in Europe saw a surge as the months turned colder – and, of course, the scheme did not run there.
Instead, perhaps what is more telling is what it tells us about the government strategy – or, as Sir Patrick and others made clear, the lack of one.
Having just come out of lockdown, it arguably sent the message that it was time to get back to normal when the pandemic still had a long way to run.
Sunak arrives for inquiry
PA MediaCopyright: PA Media
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived at Dorland House in London before 09:00 this morning - his evidence is due to begin at 10:30.
As usual, protesters are outside the building - although not, it seems, as many as for last week's appearance by Boris Johnson.
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Under-pressure prime minister faces day of Covid questioning
Chris Mason
Political editor
EPACopyright: EPA
As chancellor of the exchequer during the pandemic, Rishi Sunak attended and lead several daily Covid briefings in No 10Image caption: As chancellor of the exchequer during the pandemic, Rishi Sunak attended and lead several daily Covid briefings in No 10
This is the week when the prime minister's past, present and future collide.
At 10:30 GMT, Rishi Sunak will sit down in a windowless room in west London and begin several hours of answering questions live on television and under oath.
Sunak's interrogation at the Covid inquiry will scrutinise his time as chancellor during the pandemic.
Furlough, lockdowns and his Eat Out To Help Out scheme are all topics central to his role in government back then.
Remember, the government's now chief scientific adviser, Professor Dame Angela McLean, was of a sufficiently strong view about the then-chancellor incentivising nights out with Eat Out To Help Out that she called him "Dr Death".
And witness after recent witness have lined up to say they knew nothing about the scheme until it was about to be announced.
As Sunak is questioned by Hugo Keith KC, three-and-a-half miles away in Parliament, Conservative MPs will gather to debate his plan to send some migrants to Rwanda.
At 12:00 - while Sunak is away from his mobile phone - five groups of Tory MPs will file into the Thatcher Room in the Palace of Westminster.
Under discussion will be the government's latest plan to send migrants to Rwanda, which will go to a vote on Tuesday evening.
Read more from me on Sunak's Rwanda plan here - and remember, you can watch and follow the prime minister's Covid inquiry evidence on this page.
Live Reporting
Edited by Owen Amos and Marita Moloney
All times stated are UK
The chancellor v the scientists: How Sunak clashed with experts
Jim Reed
Reporting from the inquiry
As chancellor, it was Rishi Sunak’s job to worry about the impact of lockdown and other Covid restrictions on the economy.
The furlough scheme protected the incomes of millions of people working in sectors that could no longer operate. But the bill was jaw-droppingly large: £70bn and that’s before other subsidies were factored in.
At different points, Sunak and the Treasury clashed with the government’s scientific advisers who were, at times, saying stronger restrictions should be considered to contain the virus.
In a magazine interview he gave when he was running to become Conservative leader, Sunak said he implied - in late 2021 - that he might even resign if there was another lockdown.
Giving evidence last week, though, Boris Johnson said he could not remember that being the case.
Sunak, circuit-breakers and the second lockdown
Jim Reed
Reporting from the inquiry
By September 2020, Covid infections were again starting to climb.
The government’s scientific advisers said ministers should consider putting in place a range of measures including a short circuit-breaker lockdown.
But Rishi Sunak's briefing notes, prepared by the Treasury at the time, said that further restrictions could be catastrophic for the economy and a circuit-breaker would make bankruptcies and job losses more likely.
In the end, the government announced the tiers system of local rules, along with other measures including beefed-up guidance to work from home and a 10pm curfew for bars and clubs.
Those did not prove to be enough though and England still entered a second national lockdown on 5 November 2020.
Expect Sunak to be asked about his opposition to the circuit-breaker idea, and whether a faster response might have saved lives and avoided the full lockdown England ultimately ended up in.
Eat Out to Help Out (the virus?)
Jim Reed
Reporting from the inquiry
Expect Eat Out to Help Out to form a chunk of the questioning today.
Rishi Sunak’s flagship scheme subsidised midweek meals in pubs and restaurants in August 2020, and was popular with the hospitality industry.
Previous witnesses though, including the former Health Secretary Matt Hancock, have said they were not told about it in advance.
England’s chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty also said he should have been consulted and jokingly referred to the scheme as “Eat Out to Help Out the virus” in conversations with colleagues at the time.
And the government’s current chief scientific adviser, Dame Angela McLean, described Sunak as “Dr Death the Chancellor” in a private WhatsApp exchange in September 2020.
There is little evidence the scheme was directly responsible for driving up infections that summer, although critics say it still sent the wrong message to the public.
In his witness statement, Sunak said that Boris Johnson supported it and he “did not recall” either Whitty or Sir Patrick Vallance expressing any concerns in meetings.
Watch: PM heckled on arrival at Covid inquiry
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heckled on his arrival at the Covid inquiry a little earlier this morning.
Protesters are outside the hearing at Dorland House - although it seems not as many as for last week's appearance by Boris Johnson.
Video content
Four questions Sunak could face today
Helen Catt
Political correspondent
Rishi Sunak wasn’t prime minister during the pandemic but, as chancellor, he held one of the most senior jobs in government.
He’s likely to be asked about his Eat Out to Help Out Scheme to boost hospitality, which some of the scientists said they weren’t told about and claimed was "highly likely" to have contributed to deaths.
The inquiry’s already heard an extract from Sunak’s written evidence in which he said he “didn’t recall” any concerns being raised.
He may also face questions about missing WhatsApp messages and a note in Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary, which quotes Dominic Cummings as saying: "[Then Chancellor] Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that's OK".
It’s also thought he’ll be asked about a magazine article, in which he claimed he “wasn’t allowed to talk about” the trade-offs around lockdowns and suggested that "empowering...all these independent people”, such as scientists, was a problem.
Covid inquiry: The key things to know
Here's a quick reminder of some of the key things to know about the UK's Covid inquiry:
Did Eat Out to Help Out spark the second wave? It's not clear
Nick Triggle
Health Correspondent
Rishi Sunak is certain to be asked about the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, which offered discounts in pubs and restaurants in summer 2020.
But the extent to which it caused an uptick in infections in the autumn is unclear.
Work by the University of Warwick suggested it was responsible for between 8% and 17% new cases in the areas where it ran.
But other work by experts at the Resolution Foundation and the University of Oxford has cast doubt on drawing as strong a link.
The South West, for example, had the highest uptake of the scheme, but one of the lowest increases following the introduction of it.
What is more, other countries in Europe saw a surge as the months turned colder – and, of course, the scheme did not run there.
Instead, perhaps what is more telling is what it tells us about the government strategy – or, as Sir Patrick and others made clear, the lack of one.
Having just come out of lockdown, it arguably sent the message that it was time to get back to normal when the pandemic still had a long way to run.
Sunak arrives for inquiry
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived at Dorland House in London before 09:00 this morning - his evidence is due to begin at 10:30.
As usual, protesters are outside the building - although not, it seems, as many as for last week's appearance by Boris Johnson.
Under-pressure prime minister faces day of Covid questioning
Chris Mason
Political editor
This is the week when the prime minister's past, present and future collide.
At 10:30 GMT, Rishi Sunak will sit down in a windowless room in west London and begin several hours of answering questions live on television and under oath.
Sunak's interrogation at the Covid inquiry will scrutinise his time as chancellor during the pandemic.
Furlough, lockdowns and his Eat Out To Help Out scheme are all topics central to his role in government back then.
Remember, the government's now chief scientific adviser, Professor Dame Angela McLean, was of a sufficiently strong view about the then-chancellor incentivising nights out with Eat Out To Help Out that she called him "Dr Death".
And witness after recent witness have lined up to say they knew nothing about the scheme until it was about to be announced.
As Sunak is questioned by Hugo Keith KC, three-and-a-half miles away in Parliament, Conservative MPs will gather to debate his plan to send some migrants to Rwanda.
At 12:00 - while Sunak is away from his mobile phone - five groups of Tory MPs will file into the Thatcher Room in the Palace of Westminster.
Under discussion will be the government's latest plan to send migrants to Rwanda, which will go to a vote on Tuesday evening.
Read more from me on Sunak's Rwanda plan here - and remember, you can watch and follow the prime minister's Covid inquiry evidence on this page.