Sean Coughlan
BBC News, education correspondent

Head teachers are warning of "volatility" in this year's A-level results and that some lowered grades seem to be "unfair and unfathomable".

In Wales, 42.2% of entries had a lower grade than teachers predicted, in results for exams cancelled by the pandemic.

But the overall results, across England, Northern Ireland and Wales, show higher A* and A grades this year.

Controversy has surrounded how results have been decided.

There was "deep frustration" in schools about the confusion caused by late changes to the results system, including the use of mock grades, said Geoff Barton, leader of the ASCL head teachers' union.

"While there has been an overall increase in top grades, we are very concerned that this disguises a great deal of volatility among the results at school and student level," said Mr Barton.

"We have received heartbreaking feedback from school leaders about grades being pulled down in a way that they feel to be utterly unfair and unfathomable. They are extremely concerned about the detrimental impact on their students."

Image source, Getty Images

Thousands of students have been given lower A-level grades than their teachers' originally wanted to award them.

Exams were cancelled this year so grades were based on teachers' estimates - but many were lowered by the exam watchdog as they were deemed "too generous" under a standardisation process.

Yesterday, the Welsh government said students would not get grades lower than what they achieved in their AS subjects.

But official stats from Qualifications Wales showed 42.2% of final A-level grades today are "lowered than the original assessed grades".

53.7% are the same as predicted, while 4.1% are higher.

Image source, Getty Images

Male students have continued to outperform females in achieving top A-level results, but only slightly.

In Wales, the number of A*s awarded to boys was 0.8% higher than those awarded to girls.

But, girls outperformed the boys in grades across all other grades, with female pupils getting A* - E in 99% of their subjects, compared to 98.2% for boys.

The WJEC exam board said today's results showed an increase in the number of students taking A-levels in subjects including biology, computing, further mathematics, mathematics, physics, psychology and sociology.

Mathematics was the most popular A-level, with 3,704 students taking the subject.

The exam body said while grades remained "relatively stable", there had been a small reduction in pupils taking first and second language Welsh at A-level.

As students open their results they should be proud of the "determination" they have shown during the coronavirus pandemic, the education minister has said.

This year's exams were cancelled as schools and colleges were closed due to Covid-19 and pupils did not have school leaving days.

Kirsty Williams said: “Due to the many changes we’ve had to make this year in exceptional circumstances, you’ve had to make many sacrifices.

“But you have every reason to be proud of all the work you’ve done, which will serve you well, and proud of the determination you have shown to overcome this challenging time."

Yesterday, Ms Williams announced that no pupil would get a lower grade than what they achieved in their AS-levels, after changes to systems in Scotland and England.

"Students in Wales, and prospective employers and universities across the UK, can be assured that their A-level grades reflect their work and externally assessed exams," she said.

“I hope you get the grades you’d hoped for, and you can continue with your educational journey in the autumn."

More students have achieved top grades in their AS-levels, in a year where students have not been able to sit exams.

While the focus is on pupils getting their A-level grades before going on to university, work or apprenticeships, thousands of students are getting their AS results today.

Qualifications Wales said 22.2% achieved an A* or A for AS, up 1.9% from last year.

While 91.4% achieved A* - E compared with 90.0% in 2019, mirroring an increase in passes and top grades in A-levels.

The number of AS levels this year has risen, from 39,646 in 2019 to 45,435 in 2020.

The watchdog said this could be attributed to a number of factors, including an increase in the population size of 17-year-olds.

The number of A* and A grades awarded to students has increased in Wales.

Today thousands of pupils got A-level and AS-level results for exams they never sat, due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Official results show 29.9% of students in Wales achieved the top grades, of A* and A in their A-levels, up from 27% last year.

Overall, 98.6% of students achieved A* - E, compared with 97.6% in 2019.

This year, students' final grades were based on teachers' estimates, after exams were cancelled when schools and colleges were closed at the height of the pandemic.

Last minute changes mean no student should get a lower grade for their A-level subject than their AS results last year.

Exams watchdog Qualifications Wales said this year's results "carried the same value as any other year".

Chief executive Philip Blaker said: "The Covid-19 pandemic has made this a very challenging year for everyone involved in education.

"The method we have chosen is meaningful, robust and has been carefully thought through to be as fair as possible in the circumstances, protecting the value of results."

For Finlay Bertram, getting his A-level results will not be the celebration he had planned.

The Newport High School student had planned to open his results surrounded by his friends and teachers - but due to the pandemic he will be opening them online.

"I'm not going to lie, I'm gutted. I understand why it can't happen, safety should be the priority for everyone, it just feels like something's missing you know," he said.

"We're getting the results through email and I just feel sorry for the people who maybe didn't get the grades they wanted, and they don't have their friends an teachers there to console them and tell them everything's going to be OK."

"On my UCAS it was 4 A*, but who knows.

"We're going to have a social distanced gathering today just a few close mates. I'm just really excited about it.

"It'll be the first time we'll all have seen each other. I think we need it after the stress of today and the last month."

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Students at Merthyr Tydfil College have spoken of their nervousness of opening their results this morning.

Caitlyn Foley said her results were "better than I expected", getting an A* and three As.

“I was a bit nervous this morning because I didn’t really know what I was going to get," she said.

She added that the way the grades had been calculated had initially concerned her, but last night's announcement had been "a bit reassuring".

Tom Bush, who got two Bs and an A, said he was "very happy" with his results.

"It’s mad, it’s been quite a big experience," he said.

Despite assurances that pupils would not get lower grades than their AS-level, when Tom checked, he realised he had.

Pupils have been asked to check their results and flag up any that are lower, after the last-minute change by the Welsh government meant grades had already been issued to schools and colleges.

“I’ve actually got lower now than I had at AS in psychology which is odd but… hopefully I’ll go up," he told BBC Radio Wales.

The need for a last-minute change in the marking system is a "considerable concern", an education union has said.

UCAC said while teachers welcomed the reassurance that students would not get lower grades than their AS-level results, the 11th-hour change had caused "stress and confusion" in schools, colleges and universities.

Dilwyn Roberts-Young, UCAC general secretary said: “We are particularly alarmed that the processes put in place originally were not robust when put under scrutiny, especially with respect to the models used to project results from AS to A-level.

“Clearly, performance varies greatly from AS to A2. However, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the most able can maintain their grades between AS and A2, and can in fact perform better. We hope that this pledge will significantly reduce discrepancies in such cases."

"It's all been a terrifying experience," is one 18-year-old's assessment of the past few months.

Like thousands of other A-level students across Wales, Gwenllian Griffiths will receive results on Thursday that will determine if she can take a place at university or not.

But the backdrop is different to that experienced by most other year groups.

Her dad became very ill with Covid-19 in March and she has been helping to care for him.

"Dad was so strong and healthy, so seeing him so weak and ill made me feel that nobody is safe at the moment," she said.

"I was lucky because of my family - we all helped each other through it."

Students "must look" at their grades to check they are not lower than their AS-level results.

Qualifications Wales said grades had been sent out to schools and colleges before the last-minute change by the Welsh government.

The exam watchdog has been asked to quickly make any relevant adjustments to the appeals process and liaise with other exam regulators.

Any student who needs to appeal will be able to do so for free this year.

Its advice to pupils is:

• If your A-level grade is the same or higher than your AS level, no action is required
• If the grade is lower, it will be replaced with the same grade as that received for the AS-level - and revised grades will be issued by WJEC as soon as possible
• If needed, students can contact their prospective university to advise them of the change

As things stand, appeals have to be made through a school or college, rather than direct to the WJEC exam board - and there are limited grounds. These are restricted to the process - such as the exam board using the wrong data to calculate a final grade.

It will not allow schools and colleges to rethink their estimated grades or ranking of pupils. If other mistakes are highlighted through an appeal, other pupils affected will not see their grades lowered, the exam board has said.

Image source, PA Media

Many of us remember the worry waiting for our exam results.

But imagine getting them after being unable to sit exams in the middle of a pandemic.

"The anxiety this year does trump any other that I've experienced," said Anna Brychan, of the University of Wales, Trinity St David.

"This is a tense time every year, you can feel the tension building in schools and universities ever year, but this is, in a very overused word, unprecedented."

"I think what we all want to see is fairness for this year group of students who've already been disadvantaged enough by covid, and that nothing additional is put in their way of a fair understanding of what they've achieved, that will enable them to move on to the next stage of their lives, be that a job or university."

Universities should be flexible and look at individual pupils performances if grades are not as high as expected, the Welsh Conservatives have said.

Tory education spokeswoman Suzy Davies said results day was "worrying enough" and called for the Welsh government to focus on colleges and work-based learning.

“I also ask universities, in individual cases, to be flexible where a pupil can show that the historic performance of their school may have affected their own result unfairly," she said.

“There are other routes to excellence of course, although we need far more of them in Wales.

"We could do with more degree apprenticeships but also quick-response schemes like the UK government’s £2bn Kickstart scheme.

"My message is 'don’t let Covid-19 define your future'.

“We’ve already had a lost generation of young people due to the Welsh government’s underfunding of schools, I want to see our young people flourish and help be a key part of Wales’ recovery from Covid-19."

There are concerns students may be marked down due to their schools' poor results in the past.

Students have been assured they will not get lower grades than their AS-level results after outcry over standardisation systems across the UK.

Anna Brychan, of University of Wales, Trinity St Davids, warned Welsh students may be disadvantaged as the system in England - where grades cannot be lower than mock results - is different.

She added: "Your students could be marked down because of [the school's] historic results and that feels, and is, deeply unfair.

"In the appeals process, if we can look at prioritising or giving a voice to those schools in that position, that would be a very valuable thing to do."

Yesterday evening the Welsh government stepped in and made a last-minute change to how results will be calculated.

Students have been guaranteed they will not get a lower grade than what they achieved in their AS results.

The intervention came after changes in Scotland and England after concerns about standardisation systems.

Why did it have to be changed?

With exams cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, results were based on estimated grades.

But many were lowered in Wales, after the qualifications watchdog found that the estimated grades by teachers had been "too generous" in Wales.

If you look at the past 10 years, usually about a quarter of grades are at the top - last year it was about 27%, when record numbers of pupils got A and A*s.

But Qualifications Wales found if it had gone along with the estimates for this summer then more than 40% would have been A and A* grades.

Once ministers in England and Scotland had stepped in to overrule the usual exam moderation practices, it was inevitable Wales would have to follow suit.

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of an important day for students in Wales.

It's that time of year again: A-level exam results day.

But today, for thousands of students, receiving their final grades will be an experience unlike any year before.

This year exams were cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, with grades calculated using teachers' estimates, but some results were lowered after being deemed to "generous" under a standardisation process.

But after an outcry in Scotland, the system for how students' grades here was changed yesterday, just hours before they got their results.

Welsh pupils have now been given a reassurance from the Welsh government that their grades will not be lower than their AS results.

But students are being told to check their results, following the last-minute change.

Education Minister Kirsty Williams said she had to make sure those changes did not disadvantage Welsh students and so gave a guarantee that a final A-level grade cannot be lower than a pupil's AS grade

"This will mean - and I have received assurances from Ucas and universities - that students can speak with confidence to their prospective universities regarding their A-level grades," Ms Williams added.

Image source, Getty Images