BBC Persian TV business correspondent Amir Paivar is told by an Iranian CEO that the tension accompanying the nuclear deal is like the TV drama Game of Thrones.
We leave it to readers to judge whether Trump is Jon Snow or the Night King, according to this scenario...
President Trump’s European allies are expecting him to announce today he is pulling
out of the Iran nuclear deal, EU allies tell BBC News.
But they say they have no idea what 'Plan B' looks
like or what the White House will do about reapplying sanctions on Iran, we're told.
On Monday, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson appeared on Fox & Friends - the president's favourite morning news programme - to appeal to Trump not to "throw the baby out with the bathwater".
"Plan B does not seem, to me, to be particularly well developed at this stage," said Johnson.
White House denies NYT report
A senior White House official denied the New York Times report that said Trump told Macron he would withdraw from the Iran deal, according to Reuters.
"The president did not tell Macron those things," the unnamed official said.
According to the Pew Research Center, a pollster, more Americans say they disapprove (40%) of the accord than those that approve (32%).
Approval has slowly risen since the pact was signed in 2015, but relatively few Americans (27%) say they have heard "a lot" about the landmark agreement's details.
Republicans mostly disagree with the deal (53%), but some (22%) say they approve of it.
Democrats' opinions have changed very little since 2015, Pew notes, finding that 43% approve of the deal while 30% disapprove.
Oil prices dived as much as 3.5% as traders sold off after a CNN report that sparked doubts about whether Trump would impose sanctions on Iran as quickly as the market had expected.
That decision would reduce global crude supplies and feed tensions in the Middle East.
However, the New York Times then reported that Mr Trump had told French President Macron the US was going to pull out of the deal.
Oil prices then regained ground, with Brent trading 1.8% down at $74.79 per barrel.
Reuters later reported the French denying Trump had told Macron of his decision.
Oil prices have already fallen ahead of a statement tonight by US President Donald Trump where he is expected to pull the US out of a multi-nation agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme.
But markets have for the most part already priced in Trump not renewing Iran sanctions waivers, says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob.
"It's something we've been focusing on for a couple of months now and today is decision day," he says.
And despite shorter term geopolitical instability, in the longer term the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal could push oil prices up, Barclays research analysts said.
"The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the (Iran deal) would likely play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty," the analysts said.
BBC Persian live coverage
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
An Iranian woman browses a market in Tehran on 8 May 2018Image caption: An Iranian woman browses a market in Tehran on 8 May 2018
Persian speakers can follow the BBC Persian service's live page here.
Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes and other former Obama-era diplomats are already pronouncing last rites on the deal.
Jake Sullivan, who was chief foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton, and Kelly Magsamen, of the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, have also been weighing in.
Video caption: Is the Iran nuclear deal about to be killed off?Is the Iran nuclear deal about to be killed off?
Iran 'not afraid of US'
Iranian Revolutionary Guard
deputy commander Hossein Salami issued a defiant statement on Tuesday, reports Fars
news agency: "Our nation is not afraid of US sanctions or military attack.
"Our enemies
including America, the Zionist regime and the allies in the region should know
that Iran has prepared for the worst
scenarios and threats."
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is due to speak after Trump on Tuesday. Rouhani has already emphasised his country continues to seek "engagement with the world".
"It is possible we
will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through
this," Rouhani said.
On Monday, Rouhani suggested Iran might stick with the deal if the
European Union can offer some guarantees to the Islamic Republic.
European nations do far more business with Iran than the US, but it's far from clear that European banks and businesses would risk potential US financial punishment
by continuing to deal with Tehran.
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Iranian President Hassan RouhaniImage caption: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
UK Foreign Office 'deeply pessimistic'
European officials expect Trump to announce he is pulling out
of the Iran nuclear deal.
A senior UK diplomat tells the BBC the Foreign Office is "deeply pessimistic" about his announcement.
European Union policy chief Federica Mogherini, who helped to negotiate the deal, will hold a televised press conference after Trump's announcement.
One senior European official closely involved in Iranian diplomacy told Reuters news agency US officials had indicated late on Monday that
Trump would withdraw from the agreement.
Russia, one of the accord's signatories, said on Tuesday a US withdrawal would have harmful consequences.
One senior Western diplomat said there was a call last week between US Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo and European officials, at which America's top diplomat made clear the effort to save the deal "was over".
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Macron visited Trump in Washington for three days in AprilImage caption: Macron visited Trump in Washington for three days in April
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Trump and Merkel spoke during a three hour visit by the German chancellor to the White House on 27 AprilImage caption: Trump and Merkel spoke during a three hour visit by the German chancellor to the White House on 27 April
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson met US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the US State Department on 7 MayImage caption: UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson met US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the US State Department on 7 May
BreakingReport: Trump tells Macron US will withdraw
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Despite Trump and Macron's friendliness during the French president's three-day visit to Washington last month, Trump has seemingly remained unchanged about the Iran dealImage caption: Despite Trump and Macron's friendliness during the French president's three-day visit to Washington last month, Trump has seemingly remained unchanged about the Iran deal
The New York Times has reported that Trump told Macron he will announce US withdrawal from the Iran deal on Tuesday.
The Times also reported that a source familiar with the negotiations said the deal fell through due to Trump's insistence that limits on Iran's nuclear fuel production remain even after 2030.
Currently, the 2015 deal limits Iran's nuclear production for 15 years and would end in 2030.
The story suggests Trump will go for a hard exit: "The United States is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the nuclear accord - and impose additional economic penalties as well, the person said."
A Gulf Arab arms race?
Frank Gardner
BBC Security Correspondent
Nowhere
- apart from Israel - is more concerned about Iran than the Gulf Arab states,
specifically Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
But while today's announcement
by President Trump is closely monitored in those countries' capitals, these
Sunni Gulf monarchies have fears that extend far beyond the remit of the 2015
JCPOA Iran nuclear deal.
Their most immediate worry is Iran's rapid advances in
ballistic missile technology, prompting them to invest heavily in their own air
defences.
The US has military facilities in all six Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) countries, all of which are within missile range. But should a full-scale
war ever erupt in the Gulf then petrochemical plants, oil export terminals and
vital water desalination plants could all be on the target list.
The Arab
states' longer-term concern is the strategic expansion of Iran's proxy militias
and allies across much of the region. These include Hezbollah in Syria, the
Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
That said,
if the Iran deal were to collapse altogether, we could also see an accelerated
and dangerous arms race across the Middle East.
'Nuclear option' for nuclear deal?
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Then-candidate Trump speaks at an anti-Iran deal event in 2015Image caption: Then-candidate Trump speaks at an anti-Iran deal event in 2015
Here are two options that Trump could choose:
Soft exit: Instead of once again maintaining sanctions relief on Iran’s central bank (allowing oil exports), the president announces he will not sign the waiver by Saturday's deadline. His administration
can give those doing business in Iran a six-month grace period to wind up their
affairs in order to avoid violating the US sanctions. The administration could
ease the blow of reimposing nuclear-related sanctions by creating exemptions
for certain companies or countries.
Hard exit: Trump could slap
back on additional sanctions that are due to resume in July unless he signs
the waiver by 12 May. Those sanctions relate to more than 400 specific Iranian
companies, individuals and business sectors. If the US signals it will reimpose
both sets of sanctions on Tuesday, that would be the "nuclear option", say some
experts.
Iran nuclear deal in jeopardy
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
An Iranian woman in front of the former US embassy in TehranImage caption: An Iranian woman in front of the former US embassy in Tehran
Despite shuttle diplomacy from America’s European allies, diplomats sound pessimistic that they have succeeded in persuading Trump to stick with the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal, which curbs the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
The US president has long assailed the accord as "insane" and "the worst deal ever".
If he announces the US is to withdraw, as many expect, it may be his most consequential decision as president since coming into office 15 months ago.
Resuming US sanctions could well lead Iran to exit the deal between six world powers, and even restart its nuclear programme.
Its unclear how far Trump plans to go with his announcement today.
Stay tuned for his decision at 14:00 Washington time (18:00 GMT).
Live Reporting
Max Matza and Ritu Prasad
All times stated are UK
'Like Game of Thrones'
BBC Persian TV business correspondent Amir Paivar is told by an Iranian CEO that the tension accompanying the nuclear deal is like the TV drama Game of Thrones.
We leave it to readers to judge whether Trump is Jon Snow or the Night King, according to this scenario...
Vice-president briefing lawmakers
'What's Plan B?'
President Trump’s European allies are expecting him to announce today he is pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, EU allies tell BBC News.
But they say they have no idea what 'Plan B' looks like or what the White House will do about reapplying sanctions on Iran, we're told.
On Monday, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson appeared on Fox & Friends - the president's favourite morning news programme - to appeal to Trump not to "throw the baby out with the bathwater".
"Plan B does not seem, to me, to be particularly well developed at this stage," said Johnson.
White House denies NYT report
A senior White House official denied the New York Times report that said Trump told Macron he would withdraw from the Iran deal, according to Reuters.
"The president did not tell Macron those things," the unnamed official said.
What American people think of Iran deal
According to the Pew Research Center, a pollster, more Americans say they disapprove (40%) of the accord than those that approve (32%).
Approval has slowly risen since the pact was signed in 2015, but relatively few Americans (27%) say they have heard "a lot" about the landmark agreement's details.
Republicans mostly disagree with the deal (53%), but some (22%) say they approve of it.
Democrats' opinions have changed very little since 2015, Pew notes, finding that 43% approve of the deal while 30% disapprove.
Oil price see-saws
Oil prices dived as much as 3.5% as traders sold off after a CNN report that sparked doubts about whether Trump would impose sanctions on Iran as quickly as the market had expected.
That decision would reduce global crude supplies and feed tensions in the Middle East.
However, the New York Times then reported that Mr Trump had told French President Macron the US was going to pull out of the deal.
Oil prices then regained ground, with Brent trading 1.8% down at $74.79 per barrel.
Reuters later reported the French denying Trump had told Macron of his decision.
EU 'remain committed' to deal
The European Union released a statement that came just before it was reported that Trump had told France's Macron the US would withdraw.
"The EU takes note of today's statement of President of the United States Donald Trump concerning the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)," says the EU.
"As a first step, we will coordinate with the E3 and the other EU Member States to jointly assess the statement and its implications.
"We remain committed to the continued full and effective implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action."
Russian foreign minister to Iran
'The market has already adjusted'
Oil prices have already fallen ahead of a statement tonight by US President Donald Trump where he is expected to pull the US out of a multi-nation agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme.
But markets have for the most part already priced in Trump not renewing Iran sanctions waivers, says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob.
"It's something we've been focusing on for a couple of months now and today is decision day," he says.
And despite shorter term geopolitical instability, in the longer term the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal could push oil prices up, Barclays research analysts said.
"The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the (Iran deal) would likely play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty," the analysts said.
BBC Persian live coverage
Persian speakers can follow the BBC Persian service's live page here.
برجام؛ ترامپ تصمیم آمریکا را اعلام میکند
BBC Persian teams are in place in around the world, gathering reaction.
'Trump is blowing that up'
Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes and other former Obama-era diplomats are already pronouncing last rites on the deal.
Jake Sullivan, who was chief foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton, and Kelly Magsamen, of the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, have also been weighing in.
French deny Trump told Macron his decision
The French presidency is saying Trump did not talk about his Iran decision with Emmanuel Macron during their phone call today, according to Reuters.
Your snappy guide to the Iran deal
Video content
Iran 'not afraid of US'
Iranian Revolutionary Guard deputy commander Hossein Salami issued a defiant statement on Tuesday, reports Fars news agency: "Our nation is not afraid of US sanctions or military attack.
"Our enemies including America, the Zionist regime and the allies in the region should know that Iran has prepared for the worst scenarios and threats."
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is due to speak after Trump on Tuesday. Rouhani has already emphasised his country continues to seek "engagement with the world".
"It is possible we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this," Rouhani said.
On Monday, Rouhani suggested Iran might stick with the deal if the European Union can offer some guarantees to the Islamic Republic.
European nations do far more business with Iran than the US, but it's far from clear that European banks and businesses would risk potential US financial punishment by continuing to deal with Tehran.
UK Foreign Office 'deeply pessimistic'
European officials expect Trump to announce he is pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.
A senior UK diplomat tells the BBC the Foreign Office is "deeply pessimistic" about his announcement.
European Union policy chief Federica Mogherini, who helped to negotiate the deal, will hold a televised press conference after Trump's announcement.
One senior European official closely involved in Iranian diplomacy told Reuters news agency US officials had indicated late on Monday that Trump would withdraw from the agreement.
Russia, one of the accord's signatories, said on Tuesday a US withdrawal would have harmful consequences.
One senior Western diplomat said there was a call last week between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and European officials, at which America's top diplomat made clear the effort to save the deal "was over".
BreakingReport: Trump tells Macron US will withdraw
The New York Times has reported that Trump told Macron he will announce US withdrawal from the Iran deal on Tuesday.
The Times also reported that a source familiar with the negotiations said the deal fell through due to Trump's insistence that limits on Iran's nuclear fuel production remain even after 2030.
Currently, the 2015 deal limits Iran's nuclear production for 15 years and would end in 2030.
The story suggests Trump will go for a hard exit: "The United States is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the nuclear accord - and impose additional economic penalties as well, the person said."
A Gulf Arab arms race?
Frank Gardner
BBC Security Correspondent
Nowhere - apart from Israel - is more concerned about Iran than the Gulf Arab states, specifically Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
But while today's announcement by President Trump is closely monitored in those countries' capitals, these Sunni Gulf monarchies have fears that extend far beyond the remit of the 2015 JCPOA Iran nuclear deal.
Their most immediate worry is Iran's rapid advances in ballistic missile technology, prompting them to invest heavily in their own air defences.
The US has military facilities in all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, all of which are within missile range. But should a full-scale war ever erupt in the Gulf then petrochemical plants, oil export terminals and vital water desalination plants could all be on the target list.
The Arab states' longer-term concern is the strategic expansion of Iran's proxy militias and allies across much of the region. These include Hezbollah in Syria, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
That said, if the Iran deal were to collapse altogether, we could also see an accelerated and dangerous arms race across the Middle East.
'Nuclear option' for nuclear deal?
Here are two options that Trump could choose:
Soft exit: Instead of once again maintaining sanctions relief on Iran’s central bank (allowing oil exports), the president announces he will not sign the waiver by Saturday's deadline. His administration can give those doing business in Iran a six-month grace period to wind up their affairs in order to avoid violating the US sanctions. The administration could ease the blow of reimposing nuclear-related sanctions by creating exemptions for certain companies or countries.
Hard exit: Trump could slap back on additional sanctions that are due to resume in July unless he signs the waiver by 12 May. Those sanctions relate to more than 400 specific Iranian companies, individuals and business sectors. If the US signals it will reimpose both sets of sanctions on Tuesday, that would be the "nuclear option", say some experts.
Iran nuclear deal in jeopardy
Despite shuttle diplomacy from America’s European allies, diplomats sound pessimistic that they have succeeded in persuading Trump to stick with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which curbs the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
The US president has long assailed the accord as "insane" and "the worst deal ever".
If he announces the US is to withdraw, as many expect, it may be his most consequential decision as president since coming into office 15 months ago.
Resuming US sanctions could well lead Iran to exit the deal between six world powers, and even restart its nuclear programme.
Its unclear how far Trump plans to go with his announcement today.
Stay tuned for his decision at 14:00 Washington time (18:00 GMT).