Can the Tories keep their immigration promise?

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Theresa MayImage source, Getty Images

The Conservative Party's promise to cut net migration may ring a bell.

For the third election in a row they've said they'll slash the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the UK, to the tens of thousands.

The target has become a bit of an obsession for the Tories in recent years.

They've yet to get anywhere near close to meeting it, but will things be different this time around?

The numbers

Between September 2015 and September 2016, it's estimated around 273,000, external more people came to the UK than left.

That's the figure Theresa May wants to bring down to the tens of thousands.

A rather tough ask. So where can she make some inroads?

The European Union

Image source, Reuters

EU migration might be a good place to start.

Just over half of the UK's net migration comes from the European Union.

At the moment almost anyone from one of the other 27 member countries is entitled to come and live here.

But now that the UK has voted to leave the EU, it could mean that if the Conservatives get back in power, they'd look to put a block on any more EU citizens making the move.

That could cut net migration in half at a stroke but many say it's simply unrealistic and that the UK needs these immigrants to help fill jobs.

Why hasn't that happened with non-EU migrants?

The UK has a points based system in place for people coming to live here from outside the EU.

That means it's completely up to the government as to how many people they let in.

Yet despite that, the latest net migration figure from outside the EU is 164,000, only one thousand fewer than the net EU migration total.

And what if people are coming here to work?

According to figures from Oxford University, external, the majority of EU migrants have already got a job lined up before they arrive.

And only a small percentage claim job seekers allowance.

In addition to that, the government can kick out migrants if they're perceived as being a burden or a risk to safety.

The dilemma for the Conservative Party here, is that with unemployment falling more or less constantly for the past five years, if the economy remains healthy, then the country is likely to need just as many migrant workers in future.

So if it's not workers, what about students?

Students make up a big chunk of the UK's net migration.

Far more people come to study in the UK, than leave to study elsewhere.

But if the Conservatives put a cap the number of foreign students, it could cause trouble for universities.

The money from many overseas students helps universities to keep going and the students themselves often contribute to top level research and achieve good results.

Which leaves asylum seekers and illegal immigrants

The latest figures estimate there were 41,563 asylum applications from March 2015 to March 2016.

It's the fifth successive year they've risen.

But only 12,410 people were granted asylum in the last count. Not a big enough number to make the kind of inroads to net migration levels that Theresa May is after.

As far as illegal immigrants are concerned, it's notoriously difficult to assess how many are living in the UK.

Though there is one more option...

Encourage more people to emigrate!

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