What will climate change look like near me?
How high might temperatures climb and how much rain might fall in your area and how? The BBC and the Met Office have looked at the UK's changing climate in detail to find out.
Temperatures in the UK exceeded 40C for the first time on record earlier this summer, and extreme weather events are likely to become even more frequent.
The Met Office climate projections cover different levels of global warming. When, or if, these levels are reached will depend on the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.
The data is measured in 12km-square (7.5-mile-square) grids across the UK. The results for your postcode represent an average for the grids closest to you and the mid-point of a range of future possibilities, which come from the Met Office’s most recent major climate modelling data.
How could the climate change near you?
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Hottest day
Your local area
The hottest summer day in the 30 years from 1991 to 2019 near you was {{beginHighlight}}{{current_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}. If global average temperatures increase 2C above pre-industrial levels, the hottest summer day could be about {{beginHighlight}}{{medium_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}. If global temperatures rise by 4C, it could be about {{beginHighlight}}{{high_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}.
The warmest winter day in the 30 years from 1991 to 2019 near you was {{beginHighlight}}{{current_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}. If global average temperatures increase 2C above pre-industrial levels, the warmest winter day could be about {{beginHighlight}}{{medium_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}. If global temperatures rise by 4C, it could be about {{beginHighlight}}{{high_hottest_day}}C{{endHighlight}}.
Current
(1991-2019)
2C
global warming
4C
global warming
The UK
The hottest day recorded in the UK came in July 2022, with 40.3C measured in at Coningsby in Lincolnshire.
Human activity has increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and caused rising temperatures worldwide since the growth of industrialisation in the 19th Century.
If global average temperatures rise by 2C above pre-industrial levels, days at least as hot the 2019 record could be more frequent and widespread.
And with a 4C rise, parts of the UK could see temperatures above 42C.
Urgent cuts in emissions are needed to keep the rise in global average temperatures in check.
The Glasgow Climate Pact, reached at the COP26 summit in 2021, agreed countries will meet this year to pledge further cuts to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). This is to try to keep temperature rises within 1.5C - which scientists say is required to prevent a "climate catastrophe". Current pledges, if met, will only limit global warming to about 2.4C.
Summer days
Your local area
In the the 30 summers from 1991 to 2019, there were {{beginHighlight}} {{current_summer_days}} days{{endHighlight}} above 25C per month on average. If global temperatures rise by 2C, there could be {{beginHighlight}}{{medium_summer_days}} days{{endHighlight}}. With a 4C rise, there could be {{beginHighlight}}{{high_summer_days}} days{{endHighlight}}.
Current
(1991-2019)
2C
global warming
4C
global warming
The UK
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines any day with a maximum temperature above 25C as a "summer day".
In the 30 summers from 1991 to 2019, even the warmest places in the UK, located in the South, had no more than seven days a month above 25C on average.
If global average temperatures rise by 2C, southern parts of the country could see more than 11 days per summer month go beyond 25C.
If the rise is 4C, those places could have 20 or more summer days per month, and higher likelihood of hot spells triggering public-health warnings.
The cooler, northern parts of the UK, which may not see many days above 25C even with a 4C rise, can nonetheless expect average daytime temperatures in summer to increase by at least 2.5C.
Average daytime summer temperature, UK
4C global warming
The Met Office climate projections for the UK indicate significant temperature rises in the decades ahead for both winter and summer, with the greatest increases in the already warmer South.
Extreme weather could become more frequent and intense.
Not every summer will be hotter than the last – but temperature records are expected to be regularly broken, while heatwaves are likely to be longer and happen more often.
Rainy days
Your local area
In the 30 years from 1991 to 2019, there were {{beginHighlight}} {{current_rainy_days}} rainy days{{endHighlight}} on average per month in summer. If global average temperatures rise by 2C, this could be {{beginHighlight}}{{medium_rainy_days}} days{{endHighlight}} per month. At a 4C rise it could be about {{beginHighlight}}{{high_rainy_days}} days{{endHighlight}}.
In the 30 years from 1991 to 2019, there were {{beginHighlight}}{{current_rainy_days}} rainy days{{endHighlight}} on average per month in winter. At both 2C and 4C rises, the number of rainy days per month could be roughly the same.
Current
(1991-2019)
2C
global warming
4C
global warming
The UK
As the world warms, fewer rainy days in summer are expected.
Currently, over a quarter of the UK has 20 or more days without rain each summer month. This could grow to more than half the country if we reach 4C global warming.
Winter rains could remain as likely as they are now. The number of days will vary from year-to-year, but rainy days in a warmer future could be wetter than today with total rainfall expected to rise.
Wettest day
Your local area
Current
(1991-2019)
2C
global warming
4C
global warming
The UK
In warmer winters the heaviest rains are likely to get more intense. If global average temperatures rise by 4C above pre-industrial levels, half the country could expect at least 20% more rainfall on the wettest winter days.
Summer rains may also become heavier in many places, although total rainfall is expected to decline.
Of course, not all of the heaviest rains will necessarily fall in these two seasons. The current wettest day on record was 3 October 2020, when enough rain fell across all four nations to fill Loch Ness.
Total winter rainfall, UK
4C global warming
The UK climate projections suggest increases in winter rainfall in most parts of the country, as well as drier summers.
Rainfall measurements fluctuate from year to year, making projections challenging.
Not every winter will necessarily be rainier than the one before, and not every summer will be dry, but both trends could have big impacts.
What difference will climate change make?
As the world warms, the UK is likely to have hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, according to the Met Office.
Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy downpours could become more frequent and more intense. Many scientists are concerned.
"I think it’s really frightening,” says Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist. “It's just a wake-up call really as to what we’re talking about here.”
We are already seeing the impacts of climate change, but the level of global warming we reach and by when will depend primarily on the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
To some, warming weather may not seem like such a big deal. But even the smallest incremental changes in climate can have far-reaching effects.
Temperatures above 30C for two or more days can trigger a public-health warning. In the 1990s, this happened about once every four years for locations in the South. By the 2070s, projections suggest it could be as frequently as four times per year - 16 times more often, if we do not curb our emissions.
Reuters
The Met Office projects rainy winters, which keep the soil wet into spring, and dry summers of infrequent rainfall will become the norm.
More floods, less snow?
Summer rain is likely to become less frequent but could be heavier. Without regular rainfall, the ground has a harder time absorbing water when it finally does come, leading to a greater risk of flash flooding.
Floods will likely become a staple of warming winters as well.
Steady rain, which is currently a feature of winter months, will probably continue, and total rainfall is expected to increase.
When the ground is already saturated, waterways tend to rise. Bridges and sewers designed for historical rainfall levels may come increasingly under pressure.
Warming temperatures could also mean cold spells become less frequent.
And snowy UK winters could become thing of the past as climate change affects the UK, according to Met Office analysis shared with BBC Panorama.
Temperatures below freezing during the day and areas with considerable amounts of snow on the ground may be limited to parts of Scotland by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise.
Methodology
Where is the data from?
The BBC has collaborated with scientists from the Met Office to analyse data from their extensive weather measurement records and their major climate modelling project, the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).
The present-day data shows averages of observed measurements for 1991-2019.
The future data shows projected temperature and rainfall measurements produced by climate models for two different levels of global warming: if global average temperatures rise 2C above records from the mid-19th Century, the start of major industrialisation, and if that rise is 4C.
Twelve different versions of the Met Office's Hadley Centre climate model were used in calculating the UKCP Regional (12km) projections using a high emissions gas scenario (RCP8.5).
Climate models are computer simulations of how the atmosphere, oceans, land, plants and ice behave under various levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. They help scientists come up with projections for what conditions on Earth we are likely to see as global warming continues.
Which future level of global warming is more likely?
The level of global warming depends on a number of factors. The most important is the amount of emissions produced in the coming years.
Emissions are greenhouse gases released into our atmosphere. The accumulation of these gases has a warming effect on the globe, which in turn leads to changes in climatic conditions.
Governments around the world have pledged to reduce their emissions to limit the degree of warming.
JEFF J MITCHELL
During the Glasgow COP26 summit in 2021, countries agreed to meet the following year to pledge further major carbon cuts with the aim of keeping temperature rises within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. If global temperatures rise by more than 1.5C, scientists say the Earth is likely to experience severe effects such as millions more people being exposed to extreme heat.
If no interventions are taken, global average temperatures could rise by up to 4C by 2100. This high-emissions future is highlighted in the most recent Evidence Report for the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) as possible, if less likely.
Current pledges, if met, will only limit global warming to about 2.4C, while at current rates of global emissions, the world is on a pathway somewhere between 2C and 4C.
When will we reach 2C and 4C global warming?
The modelled projections in this data do not represent a specific time period. Instead, they show what conditions could be like in these two different levels of global warming.
Some other climate data may project specific points in time by which a certain level of global warming may be reached.
However, this model allows for the possibility of actions that may reduce or increase emissions enough to change the timing before we would experience a 2C or 4C future.
More information on the methods used to calculate the timing of different levels of global warming can be found in this 2018 Met Office paper.
What does this data measure?
This tool presents six different measurements among those scientists use to gain a picture of the environment under various conditions. Each represents a specific predefined climate metric.
1. Hottest day is the maximum temperature recorded or projected on a single day
2. Summer days, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), have a maximum temperature above 25C
3. Average daytime temperature is the average of daily maximum air temperatures over a season
4. Rainy days are when more than 1mm of rain is recorded. This excludes days that may have had very light rain or a heavy morning dew or mist
5. Wettest day is the maximum amount of recorded or projected rainfall on a single day
6. Total rainfall is the amount in millimetres measured across a season. We also calculated and display the change in rainfall for the future scenarios as a percentage change from the current period (1991-2019)
What does ‘my local area’ show?
Climate data is typically presented in gridded squares that make up a large surface area. The grids used in this model are 12km by 12km.
This level of detail is able to capture many of the varied climate conditions across the UK's diverse geography far better than other, broader-scale models.
Each UK postcode has been matched to its nearest 12km-square grid. The results displayed for your area represent an average (mean) for the grids closest to that location, as long as they are no further than 34km away.
In most cases a grid has been averaged with its eight nearest grids, except along irregular coastlines and small islands.
Averaging means that the figures displayed are never for a single grid alone. While natural variability between grid areas is normal, this process minimises dramatic differences that may be down to chance.
What do the current and future data represent?
Both current and future data are organised into the same 12km-square grids.
However, unlike future modelled predictions, the present-day data comes from actual observed measurements.
We have presented a single number that represents an average for each grid and season. This helps to reduce the influence of outliers in observed data.
For instance, the current number of summer days represents the mean number of days recording maximum temperatures of at least 25C per month in June, July and August across every year from 1991 to 2019.
Each number presented in the two future scenarios represents the median of 12 possible outcomes as projected by the 12 model simulations.
All future projection data has been calibrated by Met Office scientists against the data in the present-day range, 1991-2019, so the model results can be compared directly with observations. More information on the calibration technique used can be found in this 2017 paper.
Why do the maximum temperatures not match what I saw on the news?
Because climate data is gridded, the data may represent a larger area than that covered by a single weather station. Measurements from multiple weather stations are averaged together to give a single datapoint for a grid.
Take the hottest day, for instance. If the highest temperature recorded at Cambridge Royal Botanic Gardens was 38.7C, that number is combined with measurements from other stations across the region to produce an average for a 12km-square area that includes Cambridge. Other weather stations will have recorded slightly lower temperatures, so the average highest temperature in this area would be less than 38.7C.
Credits
Data analysis and production by Becky Dale, Nassos Stylianou and Alison Benjamin. Design by Zoe Bartholomew, Debie Loizou and Prina Shah. Development by Becky Rush, Alexandra Nicolaides and Catriona Morrison. Editorial support from Joseph McAuley and Paul Rincon. Data and analysis guidance from the Met Office: Dr Dan Bernie, Dr Elizabeth Kendon, Prof Jason Lowe OBE, Dr Mark McCarthy and Dr Fai Fung. Special thanks to the Met Office's Oli Claydon, Grahame Madge and Joanne McLellan, the BBC's head of statistics Robert Cuffe as well as Dr Sihan Li at the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute.
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