Tories near long-postponed Brexit showdown

In these times of strife, it's always wise to turn to Winston Churchill to find some eternal political truths.

When a young pup sidled up to Churchill to point out the enemy on the other side of the chamber, the new learner was quickly put in his place: They are the opposition, the enemy sits behind you, Churchill said.

It certainly feels like that on the Tory benches these days, as the Conservatives continue to turn on each other. One minister told a Tory Brexiteer, during one recent heated moment, that they mental health issues.

Rancorous atmosphere

And one senior cabinet minister recently likened the hardline Brexiteers in the European Research Group to the Taliban. Claiming that the Brexiteers will not listen to a reasoned explanation of the prime minister's deal, the minister told me: "You put these ideas and the purists say: 'No, we have to have our way.' It is like the Taliban. They must have their ideal even if that means blowing the whole thing up."

The minister's remarks show the level of nerves at senior levels of the government that Theresa May could lose the "meaningful" vote on 11 December - with fatal consequences for her and for a negotiated Brexit.

"We're stuffed aren't we?" one Whitehall source asked me. "It is a good deal but we are going to lose and lose heavily, aren't we?"

The cabinet minister's comments also show how rancorous the atmosphere has become as the Conservative party has its long awaited showdown on Europe. The nearest parallel is the saga of the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s, which prompted Sir John Major to describe three Eurosceptic members of his cabinet as "bastards".

Fast forward a quarter of a century and the bitterness is more pervasive. And in the case of the cabinet minister I spoke to, the language is even stronger.

No more delay

Perhaps this is no surprise. The party has been waiting during that quarter of a century since Sir John's outburst for a defining showdown on Europe, when its two wings would have to take a definitive stand.

Sir John avoided that showdown by coupling the key vote on the Maastricht Treaty with a confidence vote in his government. Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, that is no longer possible.

David Cameron avoided the showdown by suspending collective responsibility and allowing ministers to campaign on either side in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Now, as Parliament is asked to vote on Theresa May's deal, the showdown can be delayed no longer. Tory MPs have to decide between a close relationship with the EU, with deep questions over the UK's ability to shape key rules, no deal, or uncertainty over an amended deal.

The added problem for the prime minister: this is not a traditional clash between Europhiles and Eurosceptics, as Tories in both camps splinter off in different directions. "It is really bad atmosphere," was the conclusion of one minister.