General election 2019: The view from Hall Green

UK voters will cast their ballots on 12 December

"It all looks such a tangle"

That's how one of my colleagues described this general election when we were arriving in the office this morning.

It's hard to argue when you consider how so many different parties interact so differently in so many constituencies.

So airy generalisations about opinion poll ratings, voting trends and "defining issues" can present a misleading veneer of statistical precision.

Each area has such an assortment of moving parts compared with what we are used to, especially in our part of the country which is often more like a two-party affair than anywhere else.

A recent poll suggests the NHS is the voters' top election issue

We need no reminding that Brexit cuts through, as well as between, customary political loyalties.

But after a recent Ipsos Mori poll suggesting the NHS was overtaking it to become the principal issue, the real purpose of this contest becomes even harder to define than ever.

It's much more like the tangle described by my colleague.

If you scan the familiar roll call of those all-important Midlands marginals, you'll find no reference to Birmingham Hall Green.

Labour's 34k majority at the last election makes it one of their safest seats.

But delve more deeply into what's moving the debate in just one constituency and you can see why it's so dangerous to draw easy conclusions here or anywhere else.

The 50-50 city

The 500,000 voters in Birmingham opted to leave the EU by a narrow margin of 4,000

Birmingham came uncannily close to replicating the referendum result of the UK as a whole.

It registered a Leave vote by the narrowest of margins, 4,000 votes out of half a million cast.

Birmingham Hall Green registered the highest Remain vote of any of the city's 10 constituencies.

A total of 66% of electors here voted to remain in the European Union.

The constituency includes Kings Heath and neighbouring trendy Moseley village with its bustling collection of restaurants, bars, delicatessens and a farmers' market.

It really is something akin to parts of north London: socially and politically progressive, cosmopolitan and a cultural magnet for incoming hipsters.

So here comes the first complication.

Roger Godsiff has been de-selected by Labour and is standing as an Independent in the forthcoming election

Hall Green's Labour MP in the last Parliament, Roger Godsiff, supported Vote Leave. He also took a risk with liberal-minded voters by backing the parents protesting against the teaching of LGBT relationships at Anderton Park Primary School, which is at the other end of the constituency.

Neighbouring Sparkhill and Sparkbrook have one of Britain's biggest concentrations of Muslims and includes Birmingham's famous Balti Belt. "You are right," he told the the protesters.

This is one very big reason why Mr Godsiff has now been de-selected by Labour.

But MPs often develop almost proprietorial relationships with their constituencies. Having seen for myself how closely he worked with the local mosques, I'll be very interested to see how much of that thumping majority was down to his personal following, now that he is standing against his former party as an Independent.

But this isn't the only challenge facing Labour here.

Given the strength of Remain sentiment, does Jeremy Corbyn's tactical neutrality over Brexit open him up to attack by the avowedly Remain-supporting Liberal Democrats, who are trying very hard here?

Birmingham's famous Balti Belt lies within the Hall Green constituency

Walking around the newly-gentrified streets of terraced houses and substantial "arts and crafts" detached properties, it's no surprise to see the "Stop Brexit, Vote Liberal Democrat" posters displayed in those elegant bay windows.

Labour face a battle on two fronts: the Lib Dems on the one and the Brexit Party on the other.

The BXP may have been generally seen as a threat to the Conservatives' hopes in seats held by Labour in the last Parliament; Hall Green is not exactly a prime Tory target.

The Brexit Party's latest campaign messages accusing Labour of betraying five million voters presents us with yet another of those imponderables which make this the most unpredictable election I have seen.

Six candidates are standing in Birmingham Hall Green: Tahir Ali, Labour. Patrick Cox, Green. Rosie Cuckston, Brexit Party. Roger Godsiff, Independent. Izzy Knowles, Liberal Democrat and Penny-Ann O'Donnell, Conservative.

Sunday Politics Midlands

Whatever your politics, there's no denying it gives us all plenty to talk about.

The Andrew Marr Show, which comes just before us, has naturally been extended by 15 minutes lately, nudging our usual 10.00 slot back to 10.15. So stand-by for an update on this weekend's tv listings.

But of course I hope you'll want to watch both shows back-to-back.

This week I'll be joined by Rachel Maclean, for the the Conservatives; Taiwo Owatemi, for Labour; and Ellie Chowns, for the Green Party.

And I hope you will join us too on BBC One West Midlands this Sunday, 1 December 2019.