London local elections: Will the Conservatives suffer?

Londoners will get to vote on who runs their local councils on 3 May

London is often described as a Labour city and, if the polls are right, this year's local elections will further consolidate that title.

Labour already holds overall control in 20 of London's 32 boroughs and has all four elected mayoralties.

The Conservatives hold eight councils. But more boroughs could turn from blue to red on 3 May as the Conservatives prepare for a kicking in London.

And even in Tory heartlands where the Conservatives should keep control, like Bromley and Bexley, the party is expected to end up with fewer councillors.

Pollsters predict the Conservatives could lose as many as 100 seats across the capital.

What is the Conservative Party strategy? One senior Tory source told me the name of the game is to keep the campaigns as local as possible.

So in boroughs like Barnet and Wandsworth, where Labour has been closing in on the Conservatives and in Kingston where the Liberal Democrats are hopeful of a revival, the Conservative campaigns are focusing on ultra-local issues like bin collections, pot holes and low council tax.

They are steering clear of national issues like Brexit which is damaging to Conservative chances in pro-remain London boroughs.

The Conservatives are planning to focus on ultra-local issues like bin collections in the London elections

'Easy council' target

Top of the hit list for Labour is north London's Barnet, the so-called "easy council" because its services are outsourced.

Labour came within touching distance of taking it four years ago with the Conservatives holding on by a majority of just one seat.

But that majority was lost last month after one Tory councillor resigned, plunging Barnet into no overall control.

On the face of it Barnet is a winnable council for Labour, which is campaigning on the dangers of outsourcing, problems with children's services and the future of the large EU national population there post-Brexit.

But a couple of things might hurt Labour's chances here.

Protests were held outside Parliament over anti-Semitism in the Labour Party

Firstly is Labour's anti-Semitism row. Barnet has the highest Jewish population of any council in the country.

The local Labour group has been distancing itself from the Labour Party leadership.

It has made it clear it stands with concerned Jewish communities, literally standing with them at their protest in Parliament Square last month.

But what is not clear is whether this issue might keep Jewish Labour voters away on polling day.

Secondly, the snap General Election result last year saw Labour gain ground here, but it failed to unseat any of the borough's three Conservative MPs who held on, albeit with reduced majorities.

'Huge symbolic loss'

Wandsworth, the low council tax Conservative borough, is also within Labour's sights.

If Labour does manage to prise it out of Tory hands it would be a huge symbolic loss for the Conservatives as it's been a flagship Tory borough since the Thatcher years.

Wandsworth Council has been controlled by the Conservatives since 1978

Those who think Labour could take it point to the Battersea Parliamentary seat which Labour won in last year's general election, a 75% vote for remaining in the EU here in 2016, as well as to a changing demographic with young professionals priced out of the housing market looking for answers.

Labour has been gradually increasing its councillor count here over the years but the local Labour leadership seems keen to downplay expectations, making it clear that it would need big swings in Tory wards to take overall control.

Brexit and housing

Then there is Westminster City Council. This would be the biggest scalp of the bunch if Labour could manage to take it but it is a tough ask.

The very fact that this bastion of Conservative rule is being spoken of as one that the Tories could possibly lose, shows how volatile the situation has become for them in inner city London, in particular, where issues like Brexit and the ever rising cost of housing have been playing against them.

An unknown quantity is the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea.

In normal times the future of the Conservatives in a council where it holds around three quarters of the seats wouldn't be in doubt.

Brexit and the ever rising cost of housing in inner city London are key issues

But there was nothing normal about the Grenfell Tower fire which raised questions about the council's approach to social housing and about its ability to support local people.

More than a third of Conservative councillors here are standing down this year, including those who were in charge when the tragedy happened, which either leaves the party more vulnerable or gives them a clean slate, depending on how you look at it.

Labour would struggle to win overall control here as that's an electoral mountain to climb but it is in a stronger position to win seats.

Don't forget, just days before the Grenfell Tower fire Labour won the Kensington constituency in the north of the borough, indicating a move towards Labour there.

Conservative run Hillingdon Council, which is home to Boris Johnson's constituency, is a target for Labour

If there is one borough where the Liberal Democrats think they could make a comeback, it is Kingston.

It neighbours the only Liberal Democrat-run London borough - Sutton - which the Tories have their eye on.

The Lib Dems lost Kingston to the Conservatives four years ago, but won back the parliamentary seat last year, giving them a boost of confidence.

Other boroughs to look out for include:

• Hillingdon in north-west London which is Conservative-run, but has become an increasingly split borough over the years. It's also home to high profile Tory MP and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in the north and Labour MP and Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell in the south.

• Havering - could all the independent groups there continue to deny the Conservatives overall control?

• Tower Hamlets - another council under no overall control that went back into the hands of a directly elected Labour mayor in 2015 after the previous mayor Lutfur Rahman was removed from office for corrupt electoral practices. Lutfur Rahman's behind a new party that's running this year and another party is being led by one of his former cabinet members. Labour will be seeking to bat them both off.

• Two other boroughs with directly elected mayors which will see new faces at the helm are Newham where London's longest serving local civic leader Sir Robin Wales was deselected by the local Labour group and Lewisham where Steve Bullock is standing down for Labour.

• And Haringey, a Labour stronghold, is expected to see an increase in councillors from the Jeremy Corbyn supporting group Momentum on the left wing of the party, after more centrist Labour councillors were deselected by the local party there last year.