Jeremy Hunt: Tories may have to embrace no deal

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt has embarked upon a five-day five-nation tour of Africa

Jeremy Hunt's picture rich tour of Africa shows he will be a formidable candidate in the Conservative leadership contest.

Snapped taking the wheel of a Royal Marines rigid inflatable boat, he strikes the pose of a clear frontrunner among the cabinet contenders.

From thousands of miles away, Hunt has also been showcasing his Brexit credentials by warning Theresa May against agreeing a deal with Labour involving a customs union.

But Hunt has one fundamental weakness, that could undermine his chances when he comes up against Brexiteer candidates such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. The foreign secretary is, in the eyes of many Tories, a nouveau Brexiteer.

The 'windsock' convert

He is a former Remainer who has embraced the Brexit cause with such enthusiasm that some Tories, particularly on the Remain side, are suspicious.

The former No 10 strategy director, Lord Cooper of Windrush, has dubbed Hunt a "windsock".

I understand that Hunt has recently been reaching out to Remainer Tories to explain his conversion to the Brexit cause.

He appears to be trying to address the "windsock" charge by showing that his thinking is genuine.

If he can persuade Remainers of his sincerity, that might convince some Brexiteers who will be suspicious of this late convert to their cause.

• PM 'unlikely' to hold another Queen's speech

• What would 'no deal' look like?

• What is Labour's customs union policy?

• Brexit: Significant hurdles for cross-party talks

The discussions are pretty bleak because Hunt believes the Tories are facing a dangerous moment, if they make the wrong decisions in the coming months.

But Hunt is challenging Remainers. The foreign secretary is asking which of two options poses the greatest threat to Britain: a no deal Brexit or a Jeremy Corbyn government.

Remainer Tories, who are determined to avoid no deal, are not taking long to conclude that Corbyn in No 10 is the greater of the two threats.

Hunt says that if Remainers accept a Corbyn government is a greater threat, they therefore need to think very carefully about their opposition to no deal.

If the Brexit impasse continues - and the Remainers continue to stand out against no deal - then they could hand a gift to Nigel Farage's Brexit Party.

Farage could build on his expected success in the European Parliamentary elections and deliver a crushing blow to the Tories in a general election.

If Brexit has not been delivered by the time of a general election, the Brexit Party could - on a strong performance - take seats off the Tories. Even on a weaker performance, the Brexit Party could deprive Tories of many seats by cutting their majorities and opening up seats to Labour.

Under both those scenarios Corbyn could enter Downing Street. And so Hunt is saying there may only be one way to avoid a Jeremy Corbyn government: neutralise the Brexit Party by embracing a no deal Brexit.

One Tory Remainer tells me: "With great reluctance I may have to agree to no deal as the price of saving the Conservative Party and saving the country."

It is impossible to predict the outcome of the Tory leadership contest, though there is one rule of thumb: the frontrunner rarely wins.

But one leading candidate is clearly thinking many steps ahead.

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